1. Outline for today’s class
Relative effectiveness discussion paper
Negotiation theory & practice
Why states take the positions they do.
Role of NGOs in international environmental treaties

2. Treaty 1 – overarching thoughts
Good strategy: look at analysis of similar treaty in chapters in any of the many books I have put on reserve in the library for the course. Imitate that analysis.
Polar bears: use 1973 treaty and research question is WHICH countries were influenced – some were and some weren’t and want to use evidence to make convincing claim about which.

3. Start at minute 19:10

4. Negotiation Theory Sprinz and Vaahtoranta Betsill and Corell show:
Positions states take in negotiations (the DV) are determined by two IVs: the costs states face to take action to protect the environment (abatement costs) and the benefits they receive if the environment is protected (ecological vulnerability)
Betsill and Corell show:
Need to clarify research question – WHAT is influence?
Evidence of NGO influence
Use of process tracing AND counterfactuals
Building on work of prior others

5. Why States Take Positions They Do in Int’l Negotiations
Ecological
Yes
Vulnerability No
Low
Abatement
Pusher
Bystander
Costs High
Intermediate
Dragger
Sprinz and Vaahtoranta, 1994.

6. NGO influence in negotiations (Betsill and Corell, 2007)
Distinction of power vs. influence
Power as resources vs. power as influence over outcomes
Definition of NGO influence based in counterfactuals
“Influence occurs when one actor intentionally communicates to another so as to alter the latter’s behavior from what would have occurred otherwise" (Betsill and Corell, 2007, 31).

7. NGO elements Activities Access Resources: financial; informational
Focus of NGOs on process or outcome
Notice elements of process tracing

8. Potential influences of NGOs
Agenda setting -- what gets talked about; drawing attention to an issue.
Issue framing -- how it gets talked about: biosafety can be framed as health or trade issue (B&C, 36)
Positions of key states
Procedural issues -- how decisions to be made in the future
Substantive issues -- actual decisions in the agreement text

9. Factors that condition NGO influence
NGO coordination
Rules of access,
Stage of the negotiations
Political stakes
Institutional overlap
Competition from other NGOs
Alliances with key states
Level of contention (B&C, 2007, ch. 2).

10. Why do negotiations succeed?
Type of problem
Structural and contextual factors
Concern about the issue and costs
Scientific influence
Actors involved
Institutional design factors