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Monty Hall a b c *(Goat not necessarily behind Door b)
3 doors: a, b, c behind two: Goat behind one: Prize You pick one door, but are not shown the contents Host opens one of the other two doors that has a Goat You now have the option to switch to the other unopened door Should you switch? *(Goat not necessarily behind Door b) a b c
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Monty Hall in Vermont
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Bayesian Inference in AI
Medical Diagnosis: Pr(positive | age, sex, health history, symptoms) Game Playing: Pr(get black jack | cards dealt) Credit Analysis: Pr(good credit | credit history) Stock Purchasing: Pr(stock will go up | current price, history, trends)
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? Recall: Supervised Learning b a a b a
Given new example, put it into a group.
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Training Classifying Learned model/ Classifier Training Set Extract
features/ labels Train Decision Trees Bayesian Learning Neural Nets... Classifying Learned model/ Classifier Label Instance/Example Extract features
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Tennis example Training Set: New Example:
Overcast, Cool, Normal, Strong Play Tennis?
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Training Classifying Learned model/ Classifier Training Set Extract
features/ labels Train Decision Trees Bayesian Learning Neural Nets... Classifying Learned model/ Classifier Label Instance/Example Extract features
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Extracting Features/Labels: Training
Raw data Label features Label f1, f2, f3, …, fn f1, f2, f3, …, fn Train f1, f2, f3, …, fn 1 1 f1, f2, f3, …, fn 1 extract features 1 f1, f2, f3, …, fn Training examples
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Extracting Features: Testing/Classiftying
Raw data labels features 1 f1, f2, f3, …, fn Learned model/ Classifier f1, f2, f3, …, fn f1, f2, f3, …, fn 1 extract features f1, f2, f3, …, fn predict the label f1, f2, f3, …, fn
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Bayesian Learning Naïve Bayes Classifier
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