1. Energy strategy of Russia up to 2030: Eastern vector
Dr. Alexey Gromov
Deputy General Director
Institute for Energy Strategy
Moscow, Russia
Joint Symposium
August 30 – September 3, 2010
within framework of Baikal Economic Forum

2. ES – 2030 ENERGY STRATEGY 2030 and its PREDECESSORS IES
Conception of the state energy policy in
new economic conditions
(Ratified by the Government: №26 of )
1992
Decree of the President №472
of «About the basic directions of
the state energy policy»
1995
Fundamentals of the ES
(Ratified by the Government: №1006 of )
ES – 2020
(approved be decree № 1234-r of the Government
of the Russian Federation of )
2003
ES – 2030
approved by decree N° 1715-r of the Government
of the Russian Federation of
2009 2

3. ES-2030: from FORECAST to TARGET MODELING Forecasts and Scenarios
IES
ES-2020
ES-2030
Target Modeling
Forecasts and Scenarios 3

4. STAGES OF ENERGY STRATEGY 2030
IES
STAGES OF ENERGY STRATEGY 2030
1ST STAGE
2ND STAGE
3RD STAGE
Growth of national economy and quality of life of the population
Share of Energy sector in Economy
Overcoming the crisis in the Economy and Energy sector
Modernization of Energy sector
Increase of power efficiency and energy saving in the Economy and Energy sector
Innovative development of Energy sector
New oil and gas fields development (Arctic shelf, Eastern Siberia and the Far East)
Highly effective use of traditional power resources
Switch to the Energy of the Future
2020
2022
2015
2013
2009
2030 4 4

5. PRINCIPLE of TIME SHIFTING in the ES-2030
(example of electricity production and consumption)
IES
2 years
2 years
1 year
1 year
Moderate scenario
Innovative scenario
Moderate scenario
Innovative scenario
Risks of an exit of scenarios for limits of a base look-ahead field are considered through possible time shifts of termination years of the 1st and 2nd stages of ES-2030 5

6. ES-2030 in the SYSTEM of STRATEGIC DOCUMENTS
IES
ES-2030 in the SYSTEM of STRATEGIC DOCUMENTS
for the EASTERN SIBERIA and the FAR EAST
Conception of the long-term development of the Russian Federation for the year 2020
Long-term forecast of the development of Russian economy for the years
ES-2030
Strategy of socio-economical development of the Far East and Baikal region up to 2025
Strategy of development of Eastern Siberia and the Far East up to 2030
Program of development of oil processing capacity in the regions of Eastern Siberia and the Far East
Eastern
Gas
Program
Investment programs of energy companies 6 6

7. EASTERN VECTOR IN ES-2030: NEW SIDES OF “OLD” TASK
IES
EASTERN VECTOR IN ES-2030: NEW SIDES OF “OLD” TASK
Road Map of implementation of ES-2030 : Eastern vector
task №19 «Increase in the share of the Asia-Pacific countries in the structure of the Russian energy export to 16–17%»
task №10 «Implementation of a complex of program measures for petrochemistry and gas-chemistry development in the Eastern Siberia and Far East»
task № 17 «Extended reproduction and attraction of human resources for development of new areas of the Eastern Siberia and Far East»
Eastern vector
Key initiatives in the Russian energy sector: Eastern vector
Energy infrastructure: development and diversification
ESPO pipeline, Eastern Gas Program, petro- and gas-chemistry development
Development of oil and gas complexes
in Eastern regions of Russia
Sakalin, Yakutia, Magadan, Irkutsk and Krasnoyarsk regions
Shelf of the East Arctic, reanimation of the Northern Sea Way
Exploitation of the oil and gas potential of the Northern regions of Russia and Arctic shelf
Large-scale development of hydro energy and renewables
Non-fuel energy
Modernization of electric power and heat supply systems in the Region
Energy saving 7

8. THE EAST IS A KEY DIRECTION OF DIVERSIFICATION
IES
THE EAST IS A KEY DIRECTION OF DIVERSIFICATION
OF THE RUSSIAN EXPORT
Forecast of oil and oil products export
Forecast of gas export 8

9. KEY PROJECTS IN THE EASTERN SIBERIA AND THE FAR EAST
IES
KEY PROJECTS IN THE EASTERN SIBERIA AND THE FAR EAST
Eastern Siberia-Pacific Ocean pipeline
Sakhalin projects
Eastern Gas Program
Hydroelectricty and Renewables 9

10. FIRST RESULTS OF ES-2030: CAREFUL OPTIMISM
IES
FIRST RESULTS OF ES-2030: CAREFUL OPTIMISM
2008
2009
Strategic Indicator for the first stage of ES-2030 ( )
Share of Eastern Siberia and the Far East in oil production 3%
4,6%
10-12%
Share of Eastern Siberia and the Far East in gas production 2%
3,7%
7-8%
LNG share in gas export 0%
3,5%
4-5%
Share of the countries of the Asia-Pacific Region in the structure of gas export
11-12%
Capacity volume of coal sea ports terminal in the East, % to 2005
110%
122% % 10