1. Integrated Agricultural, Migration, and Social Protection Strategies to Reduce Vulnerability to Climate Change in East Africa
Bradford Mills
Genti Kostandini
Anthony Murray
Jianfeng Gao
Jawoo Koo
Zhe Guo
Joseph Rusike
Steven Omamo

2. Climatic Shocks/ Change
Other Responses
Agricultural Production
Agricultural Response
Migration
Off-farm activities
Transfers
Crop Mix
Technology
Intensity
D Off-farm Income
Household
Well-Being
D Agri. Output

3. Climatic Shocks/ Change
Other Responses
Agricultural Production
Agricultural Response
Migration
Off-farm activities
Transfers
Crop Mix
Technology
Intensity
D Off-farm Income
Non-resilient Household
D Agri. Output

4. Climatic Shocks/ Change
Other Responses
Agricultural Production
Agricultural Response
Migration
Off-farm activities
Transfers
Crop Mix
Technology
Intensity
D Off-farm Income
Resilient Household
D Agri. Output

5. Household resiliency pathways: Ethiopia & Zambia
Long-term panel data:
Ethiopia :
Zambia: 1999/2000, 2002/2003, and 2006/2007
Crop simulation models:
Historical weather
1980 – 2010
future projections to 2050

6. Decreased rainfall Decreased Yield Climatic Shocks/ Change
Household well-being

7. Dependent Variable: Logged Yield Maize (kg) for entire sample
Coef
Std. Err
t-stat
Average Daily Rainfall (mm) Growing Season
0.0450
0.0163
2.75
Lagged 5 year SD growing season
0.0416
0.0226
1.84
Use Fertilizer = 1
0.4234
0.0424
9.98
Number of Adult Equivalent
0.0301
0.0072
4.18
Female Headed Household = 1
0.0591
-4.64
Value of assets
0.0000
0.07
Land Holdings (hectares)
0.0353
0.0272
1.3
Inverse Mills Ratio (Lambda)
0.1005
-9.41
IMR * T2
0.3597
0.1168
3.08
IMR * T3
0.3233
0.1389
2.33
T2 (Time Dummy = 1 for 2nd panel year)
0.0296
-11.26
T3 (Time Dummy = 1 for 3rd panel year)
0.0876
-1.72
Mean of Avg. Daily Rainfall
0.0373
-0.51
Mean of 5 year SD
0.0364
-1.59
Mean of used fertilizer
0.3662
0.0536
6.83
Mean of Adult equiv.
0.0087
3.45
Mean of Female Headed Household
0.0570
0.0664
0.86
Mean of Assets
0.0001
1.4
Mean of Land Holdings
0.0758
0.0108
7.03
Mean of District Share that grows maize
1.0953
0.1517
7.22
Mean of 5 year growing season
0.0260
0.0430
0.61
Constant
5.4138
0.1353 40
Number of Observations
12,858
Bootstrap replications 89
Wald Chi-square (19 dof)
6570.7
Prob > Chi2
R-Squared
0.4611
Adj. R-squared
0.46
Root MSE
0.9294
Note: Standard Errors are bootstrapped

8. Zambia Yield (kg) Responses to Average Daily Rainfall (mm) in the Growing Season
Coef
Std. Err
Maize (All)
0.045
0.016
Maize (0-1 ha)
0.066
0.039
Maize (1 - 2 ha)
0.036
0.025
Maize (2+ ha)
0.003
0.021
Sweet potatoes
0.097
Cassava
-0.036
0.022
Groundnuts
0.063
0.019
p = 0.01
p = 0.05
p = 0.10

9. Zambia Yield (kg) Responses to Lagged 5 Year Variance of Rainfall (mm) in Growing Season
Coef.
Std. Err
Maize (All)
0.042
0.023
Maize (0-1 ha)
-0.034
0.047
Maize (1 - 2 ha)
0.059
0.039
Maize (2+ ha)
0.094
Sweet potatoes
-0.283
Cassava
-0.119
Groundnuts
-0.030
0.030
p = 0.01
p = 0.05
p = 0.10

10. Decreased per-capita consumption
Climatic Shocks/ Change
Decreased rainfall
Decreased Yield
Decreased per-capita consumption
Household well-being

12. Decreased per-capita consumption
Climatic Shocks/ Change
Decreased rainfall
Decreased Yield
Decreased per-capita consumption
Do not fully absorb shocks
Room to improve household resiliency
Household well-being

13. High costs of climatic variability
Household annual costs of exposure to climate variability for Maize (reducing all variability)
$15 - $150 in Ethiopia
$50 - $90 in Zambia
Household cost from mean yield losses in drought years for Maize (1980 – 2009)
$5 - $70 in Ethiopia
$2 - $10 in Zambia

14. High costs of climatic variability cont.
Household annual costs of exposure to climate variability in Ethiopia (reducing 25% variability)
$82 from Wheat
$17 from Sorghum
Household cost from 25% mean yield losses in Ethiopia
$22 from Wheat
$40 from Sorghum
Costs from maize, sorghum and wheat losses sum up to 10-40% of annual net household income

15. High costs across maize mega-environment (Ethiopia)
Dry Lowlands
Highlands
Dry Midaltitude
Wet Lowlands/Wet Lower Midaltitude
Wet Upper Midaltitude
Welfare Changes from Mean Yield Changes ('000USD) PS CS
Total
Total MT
Total production gains in %
Drought Year
(9,927)
(4,895)
(27,000)
(13,315)
(48,865)
(24,098)
(22,680)
(11,185)
(1,510)
(745)
(164,219)
(663,227)
(22)
Average Drought
(1,739)
(858)
(4,970)
(2,451)
(7,058)
(3,481)
(385)
(190)
(28,552)
Welfare Changes from Changes in the Variance of Yields ('000USD)
Risk Benefits
1,631
5,372
2,217
8,097
8,881
25,957
6,459
21,719
1,031
4,373

16. Climatic Shocks/ Change
Evidence crop mix response
Agricultural Production
Agricultural Response
Crop Mix
Technology
Intensity

17. Dependent Variable = Share of Cropland that is Maize
Sample (all households with positive hectares of maize planted)
Dependent Variable = Share of Cropland that is Maize
Total Sample
Farm Size: (0, 1)
Farm Size: [1, 2)
Farm Size: [2, ∞)
Coef
Std. Err
t-stat
p-val
Number of Adult Equivalent
0.0024
0.0015
1.65
0.1
0.0092
0.0049
1.89
0.059
0.0001
0.0026
0.03
0.973
0.0012
0.0018
0.65
0.515
Female Headed Household
0.0131
-1.99
0.047
0.0320
-0.37
0.709
0.0221
-1.37E+00
0.17
0.0210
-1.26
0.207
Net Income (less Maize) (US Dollars)
-6.36E-06
1.58E-06
-4.03
-2.88E-05
9.94E-06
-2.9
0.004
-4.69E-06
4.02E-06
-1.17
0.243
-6.15E-06
1.61E-06
-3.81
Total Assets
4.89E-06
2.39E-06
2.05
0.04
6.23E-06
1.25E-05
0.5
0.617
7.02E-06
5.10E-06
1.37
0.169
2.15E-06
2.26E-06
0.95
0.342
Cash Remittance (U.S. Dollars)
1.66E-06
3.11E-05
0.05
0.957
1.05E-04
1.15E-04
0.91
0.364
6.04E-06
6.30E-05
0.924
2.58E-05
3.33E-05
0.78
0.438
Owns Livestock (dummy)
0.0013
0.0075
0.865
0.0017
0.0169
0.92
0.0011
0.0120
0.09
0.927
0.0153
-0.1
Total Landholdings
3.60E-05
9.06E-04
0.968
0.0078
-0.26
0.795
0.0035
0.0041
0.85
0.396
0.0008
-0.67
0.505
Hectares Cultivated
0.0064
0.0019
3.44
0.001
0.2497
0.0334
7.48
0.0148
0.72
0.469
Had Fallow Land (dummy)
0.0059
-3.61
0.0176
-0.7
0.481
0.0106
-2.96
0.003
0.0085
-2.5
0.012
Use Fertilizer (dummy)
0.1052
0.0076
13.89
0.1574
0.0251
6.28
0.1013
8.43
0.0774
0.0103
7.55
Owns a Radio (Dummy)
2.92E-05
0.0063
0.996
0.0182
-0.36
0.716
0.0116
0.0100
1.16
0.244
0.0094
-0.91
0.36
Grew Cash Crops (current panel year)
-38.15
0.0408
-15.44
0.0170
-20.94
0.0137
-20.97
Grew High Value Crops (current panel year)
0.0067
-32.06
0.0200
-21.22
0.0107
-17.11
0.0098
Grew Other Staple Crops (current panel year)
0.0081
-52.13
0.0228
-35.67
0.0136
-22.88
0.0121
-17.98
Grew C, H, and O.S. Crops (current panel year)
0.3731
0.0166
22.53
0.7911
0.1311
6.04
0.2752
0.0287
9.6
0.1844
0.0190
9.71
Ag Season 2006/2007 Dummy
0.0479
0.0104
4.61
0.0266
0.0290
0.359
0.0788
4.65
0.0511
0.0156
3.27
Ag Season 2002/2003 Dummy
0.0096
-1.29
0.195
0.0180
0.0272
0.66
0.508
0.0160
-0.16
0.873
-2.03
0.042
Lagged Total Rainfall (past season) [mm]
0.0000
3.03
0.002
0.0002
3.17
3.29E-05
3.99E-05
0.83
0.409
2.33
0.02
Lagged Planting & Growing Season CV (5 yr)
0.1348
0.0445
0.1598
0.1205
1.33
0.185
0.1084
0.0735
1.47
0.14
0.1732
0.0668
2.59
0.009
Lagged P & G Avg. daily rainfall Mean (5 yr)
0.0538
5.52
0.0421
0.0264
1.59
0.112
0.0687
0.0159
4.33
0.0487
3.18
Lagged Harvest Season CV (5 yr)
0.0105
-3.33
0.0312
-1.73
0.083
-1.42
0.157
0.0145
-2.33
Lagged Harvest Avg. daily rainfall Mean (5 yr)
0.0139
-0.8
0.425
0.0336
0.0349
0.96
0.335
-0.42
0.671
0.0239
-1.69
0.091
Number of Adult Equivalent (Household Mean across Panel Years)
0.0022
0.514
0.0065 -1
0.32
0.0037
1.06
0.289
0.0032
1.23
0.217
Female Headed Household (Household Mean across Panel Years)
0.0112
0.0162
0.69
0.49
0.0374
-0.53
0.598
0.0508
0.0253 2
0.045
0.0331
0.0249
0.184
Net Income (less Maize) (US Dollars) (Household Mean across Panel Years)
3.04E-06
0.55
0.585
9.93E-06
7.07E-06
1.41
0.16
-7.30E-06
4.51E-06
-1.62E+00
0.105
1.61
0.106
Total Assets (Household Mean across Panel Years)
-1.04E-05
3.99E-06
-2.62
-1.29E-05
8.15E-06
-1.58
0.115
-1.41E-05
1.14E-05
-1.23
0.54
0.588
Cash Remittance (U.S. Dollars) (Household Mean across Panel Years)
2.72
0.007
0.44
0.659
0.111
1.68
0.092
Owns Livestock (dummy) (Household Mean across Panel Years)
0.0155
2.13
0.033
0.0311
0.71
0.476
0.0243
0.0214
1.14
0.256
0.0337
0.0254
Total Landholdings (Household Mean across Panel Years)
0.0016
0.473
0.0129
0.0066
-0.32
0.751
0.0020
1.12
0.263
Hectares Cultivated (Household Mean across Panel Years)
0.0039
-2.18
0.029
0.0193
0.42
0.673
0.0093
0.888
-1.62
Had Fallow Land (dummy) (Household Mean across Panel Years)
0.0130
-1.86
0.063
0.0325
-1.88
0.06
0.0191
-0.9
0.368
0.62
0.532
Use Fertilizer (dummy) (Household Mean across Panel Years)
0.0470
0.0132
3.57
0.0865
0.0356
2.43
0.015
0.0184
1.48
0.0340
0.0165
2.06
Owns a Radio (Dummy) (Household Mean across Panel Years)
0.0126
-4.63
0.0304
-2.23
0.026
0.0171
-3.88
-1.9
0.057
Grew Cash Crops (current panel year) (Household Mean across Panel Years)
0.0188
0.0589
0.979
-0.24
0.812
0.0225
Grew High Value Crops (current panel year) (Household Mean across Panel Years)
0.0317
0.0128
2.49
0.013
0.0310
0.26
0.794
0.0102
0.0178
0.57
0.566
0.0433
2.55
0.011
Grew Other Staple Crops (current panel year) (Household Mean across Panel Years)
0.0140
-19.67
0.0321
-7.38
-15.61
0.0195
-14.08
Grew C, H, and O.S. Crops (current panel year) (Household Mean across Panel Years)
0.2908
0.0390
7.45
0.1521
0.1304
1.17
0.3038
0.0536
5.67
0.2670
6.17
Lagged Total Rainfall (past season) [mm] (Mean across Panel Years)
-9.41
-4.47
-4.43
-8.33
Lagged Planting & Growing Season CV (5 yr) (Mean across Panel Years)
0.0599
-2.41
0.016
0.1514
-3.02
0.0896
-1.5
0.133
0.0670
0.0833
0.8
0.421
Lagged P & G Avg. daily rainfall Mean (5 yr) (Mean across Panel Years)
-4.73
0.0318
-3.53
0.0189
-4.46
0.0175
0.357
Lagged Harvest Season CV (5 yr) (Mean across Panel Years)
0.1203
4.42
0.1430
0.0633
2.26
0.024
0.2214
0.0369 6
0.1000
0.0359
2.78
0.005
Lagged Harvest Avg. daily rainfall Mean (5 yr) (Mean across Panel Years)
-5.5
0.0399
-4.5
0.0255
-3.35
0.0268
0.198
Constant
1.3454
0.1048
12.84
2.2969
0.2250
10.21
0.9731
0.1412
6.89
0.4422
0.1375
3.22
σ_u: N:
12607
4410
4230
3967
σ_e: ρ: 0:
2190
1236
642
312
Uncensored:
8307
1855
3126
3326 1:
2110
1319
462
329

18. Area Crop Share Responses
Dependent Variable = Share Maize
Total Sample
Farm Size: (0, 1)
Farm Size: [1, 2)
Farm Size: [2, ∞)
Coef
Std. Err
Lagged Total Rainfall (past season) [mm]
Lagged Planting & Growing Season CV (5 yr)
Lagged P & G Avg. daily rainfall Mean (5 yr)
Lagged Harvest Season CV (5 yr)
Lagged Harvest Avg. daily rainfall Mean (5 yr)
Maize share:
Increases with past season rainfall (small)
Increases planting and growing season rain variation (large)
Decreases with harvest season rain variation (large)
p = 0.01
p = 0.05
p = 0.10

19. Crop Area Share Responses
Dependent Variable = Share Cassava
Total Sample
Farm Size: (0, 1)
Farm Size: [1, 2)
Farm Size: [2, ∞)
Coef
Std. Err
Lagged Total Rainfall (past season) [mm]
0.0000
0.0001
Lagged Planting & Growing Season CV (5 yr)
0.0798
0.1997
0.1351
0.1299
Lagged P & G Avg. daily rainfall Mean (5 yr)
0.0773
0.0179
0.0415
0.0433
0.0923
0.0306
0.0564
0.0311
Lagged Harvest Season CV (5 yr)
0.0746
0.0190
0.1841
0.0521
0.0577
0.0322
0.0287
Lagged Harvest Avg. daily rainfall Mean (5 yr)
0.0196
0.2186
0.0483
0.1391
0.0338
0.0465
0.0348
Cassava share:
Decreases with past season rainfall (large)
Decreases planting and growing season rain variation (small)
Increases with harvest season rain variation (small)
p = 0.01
p = 0.05
p = 0.10

20. Crop Area Share Responses
Dependent Variable = Share Groundnuts
Total Sample
Farm Size: (0, 1)
Farm Size: [1, 2)
Farm Size: [2, ∞)
Coef
Std. Err
Lagged Total Rainfall (past season) [mm]
0.0000
0.0001
Lagged Planting & Growing Season CV (5 yr)
0.0458
0.1679
0.0769
0.0537
Lagged P & G Avg. daily rainfall Mean (5 yr)
0.0147
0.0101
0.0170
0.0373
0.0168
0.0285
0.0123
Lagged Harvest Season CV (5 yr)
0.0364
0.0109
0.0700
0.0439
0.0413
0.0187
0.0116
0.0118
Lagged Harvest Avg. daily rainfall Mean (5 yr)
0.0222
0.0158
0.1193
0.0558
0.0259
0.0110
0.0198
p = 0.01
p = 0.05
p = 0.10
Groundnut share:
Decreases planting and growing season rain variation
Increases with harvest season rain variation (medium)

21. Crop Area Share Responses
Dependent Variable = Share Sweet Potato
Total Sample
Farm Size: (0, 1)
Farm Size: [1, 2)
Farm Size: [2, ∞)
Coef
Std. Err
Lagged Total Rainfall (past season) [mm]
0.000
Lagged Planting & Growing Season CV (5 yr)
0.112
0.064
0.353
0.212
0.113
0.107
0.015
0.069
Lagged P & G Avg. daily rainfall Mean (5 yr)
0.056
0.014
-0.021
0.046
0.024
0.055
0.016
Lagged Harvest Season CV (5 yr)
-0.014
0.057
0.047
0.027
0.009
Lagged Harvest Avg. daily rainfall Mean (5 yr)
0.040
0.019
0.105
0.017
0.031
0.023
p = 0.01
p = 0.05
p = 0.10
Sweet potato share:
Increases long term planting and growing season rain

22. Climatic Shocks/ Change
Evidence crop mix response
Technologies can buffer shocks
Agricultural Production
Agricultural Response
Crop Mix
Technology
Intensity

23. Technologies/interventions that buffer shocks
Drought resistant/tolerant crop varieties
Maize: CIMMYT/IITA (DTMA ), WEMA project
Up to 90% mean yield gains and 20% variance reduction compared to other improved varieties
Wheat: ILRI (Durum wheat), ICARDA (Bread wheat), CIMMYT (wheat CRP)
Rice: IRRI (several rice varieties)
Benefits from reducing variance comprise 40% of all benefits in maize, rice and wheat drought tolerant crops
Micro credit
Insurance, index based insurance

24. Climatic Shocks/ Change
Migration & off-farm employment response to
Rainfall Levels
Rainfall variance
No (public or informal) transfer responses
Not a buffer
Other Responses
Agricultural Production
Migration
Off-farm activities
Transfers

27. Implications – What is not working
Informal transfers do not buffer covariate shocks
Public/formal transfer programs do not respond rapidly
Need for adaptive social protection programs
Responsive to seasonal rainfall variation

28. Implications – What can work better
Agricultural technologies
Stabilize household incomes (rather than mean yield increases)
Other Agricultural income stabilizing interventions
Index based insurance (rainfall or vegetation)
Policies that help households diversify
Support (or don’t actively deter) migration
Support off-farm opportunities
‘Thicken’ rural economies

29. Next Step AGRA – Policy briefs
Assist countries think through integrated approach
Adaptive social protection
Income stabilizing technologies
Facilitate household diversification and mitigate exposure to risk