1. How Can We House Our Future?
7/31/2018
How Can We House Our Future?
Issues and Opportunities for Orange County Cities
Richard M. Gollis
OCCOG General Assembly 2017
Anaheim, California
March 16, 2017

2. Our Diversity Defines Our Density
7/31/2018
3 Points to Remember
Growth is Inevitable
Our Diversity Defines Our Density
Home Builder Decisions Follow the Path of
“Most Certain Results”
March 16, 2017

3. 5 PEOPLE PER MINUTE! 30 PEOPLE PER HOUR! Growth is Inevitable
US population is forecast to grow by 2.5 million people per year from today through 2025
California’s population is forecast to grow by 275,000 people per year from today through 2025
5 PEOPLE PER MINUTE!
30 PEOPLE PER HOUR!
Source: US Census, Claritas
March 16, 2017

4. Local Growth is Natural
Orange County projected to grow by over 31,000 people per year through 2022
3+ PEOPLE PER HOUR!
Source: US Census, Claritas
March 16, 2017

5. And the survey results say…
Orange County residents know that OC is growing rapidly and will continue to grow rapidly in the next 10 years.
While 75% of Orange County’s growth in the next 10 years is projected to come from natural increase, only 8% of Orange County residents realize this.
Resident’s cite issues associated with growth as a major issue for Orange County’s future.
1999 Survey!
Source: Cal State Fullerton/ OCBC
March 16, 2017

6. Shift to Density Post-Great Recession
Source: BLS, HUD
March 16, 2017

7. Jobs and Housing are Still Out of Balance
Source: BLS, HUD
March 16, 2017

8. It’s Expensive to Live in Orange County
7/31/2018
It’s Expensive to Live in Orange County
SFD Price
(Median)
Vs. OC
Apt. Rent
(Mo Median)
Irvine
$883,000
23%
$2,728
11%
San Juan Capistrano
$829,000
15%
$2,328
-5%
Huntington Beach
$807,000
12%
$2,491 2%
Costa Mesa
$753,000 5%
$2,751
Orange County
$720,000
---
$2,448
Mission Viejo 0%
$2,357
-4%
Brea
$682,000
$2,485
Fullerton
$645,000
-10%
$2,257
-8%
Anaheim
$581,000
-19%
$2,307
-6%
Santa Ana
$518,000
-28%
$2,056
-16%
California
$497,000
-31%
$2,346 US
$194,000
-73%
$1,539
-37%
Source: Zillow Data Research, January 2017 (All new and used homes)
March 16, 2017

9. Housing Costs and Shortage Making Headlines
7/31/2018
Housing Costs and Shortage Making Headlines
“The only way for young people starting out, as well as those struggling to lift themselves up, to live in Huntington Beach is for the city to increase its housing stock.”
Source: OC Register,
March 15, 2017
Source: OC Register Editorial, November 24, 2015
March 16, 2017

10. Do We See the Future?
“Tech Starting to Feel Silicon Valley’s Housing Crunch as Residents Leave Region” (International Business Times, 3/5/16)
“In Search of Cheaper Housing, Silicon Valley Workers Face Long Commute” (KQED, 4/7/16)
“Lack of New Construction Pushes Bay Area to the Brink of a Bubble” (Curbed, 2/24/16)
“Silicon Valley Residents Leave for Greener Grass, Cheaper Housing” (Wall Street Journal, 3/3/16)
March 16, 2017

11. The County is Diverse Inland North Inland South Coastal North
Coastal South
March 16, 2017

12. “Lifestyle” Concentrations: Coast vs. Inland
March 16, 2017

13. Discretionary/Workforce Dichotomy
Source: Redfin (SFD Home Sales, Sample of Last 3 Months Ending March 2017), Orange County Submarkets

14. New Construction Pushed to “Buildable Pricing”
7/31/2018
New Construction Pushed to “Buildable Pricing”
Median $ New
Median $ All
March 16, 2017

15. Lessons Learned for Certainty in Housing Delivery
7/31/2018
Lessons Learned for Certainty in Housing Delivery
Recognize capital risk
Builders and investors have national alternatives
Labor, materials and land variables
Support creative “density by design”
ADUs, Multi-Generational, bonus tools
Construction methods and types
Establish consistent and timely approval mechanisms
Overlay zones, pre-app processes
Align fees with real and transparent costs
Special Finance Districts, “Nexus Strategies”
March 16, 2017

16. Newport Beach San Francisco New York Atlanta
7/31/2018
Richard M. Gollis
Real estate advisory firm focusing on market, financial and valuation analyses across sectors
Offices in Newport Beach, San Francisco, New York City and Atlanta
Deep experience in “first tier” and “second tier” U.S. Metro Markets
Geographic reach spans North America plus Europe, Central America and Asia
500+ engagement completed across 5 continents in 2014
Senior team comprised of recognized industry thought leaders
40+ full time staff (Professional + Operations) and access to contract teams nationwide
Diverse client/relationship base across real estate sectors
Financial Institutions
Developers (Multi-family REITs/Land)
Homebuilders (Public/Private)
Public Sector
Newport Beach San Francisco New York Atlanta