1. Monetary Policy Update December 2011

2. Figure 1. Repo rate with uncertainty bands Per cent, quarterly averages
Note. The uncertainty bands for the repo rate are based on the ability of risk-adjusted market rates to forecast the future repo rate. The uncertainty bands do not take into account the fact that there may be a lower bound for the repo rate.
Source: The Riksbank

3. Figure 2. GDP with uncertainty bands Annual percentage change, seasonally-adjusted data
Note. The uncertainty bands are based on the Riksbank’s historical forecasting errors. There is also uncertainty for the outcomes for GDP, as the figures in the National Accounts are revised several years after the preliminary publication.
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

4. Figure 3. CPI with uncertainty bands Annual percentage change
Note. The uncertainty bands are based on the Riksbank’s historical forecasting errors.
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

5. Figure 4. CPIF with uncertainty bands Annual percentage change
Note. The uncertainty bands are based on the Riksbank’s historical forecasting errors. The CPIF is the CPI with a fixed mortgage rate.
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

6. Figure 5. Repo rate Per cent, quarterly averages
Source: The Riksbank

7. Figure 6. Real repo rate Per cent, quarterly averages
Note. The real repo rate is calculated as an average of the Riksbank’s repo rate forecasts for the coming year minus the inflation forecast (CPIF) for the corresponding period.
Source: The Riksbank

8. Figure 7. GDP Quarterly changes in per cent calculated in annualised terms, seasonally-adjusted data
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

9. Figure 8. Unemployment Percentage of the labour force, seasonally-adjusted data
Note. Pre-1987 data have been spliced by the Riksbank. The forecast refers to age group
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

10. Figure 9. Labour force and number of employed Thousands, seasonally-adjusted data
Note. Pre-1993 data have been spliced by the Riksbank.
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

11. Figure 10. CPI Annual percentage change
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

12. Figure 11. CPIF Annual percentage change
Note. The CPIF is the CPI with a fixed mortgage rate.
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

13. Figure 12. GDP-gap and RU-indicator Per cent and standard deviation
Note. GDP gap (HP) refers to the deviation from trend in GDP calculated with a Hodrick-Prescott filter. GDP gap (PF) refers to the deviation from trend in GDP calculated with a production function. The RU indicator is normalised so that the mean value is 0 and the standard deviation is 1.
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

14. Figure 13. TCW-weighted exchange rate Index, 18 November 1992 = 100
Note. Outcome data are daily rates and forecasts are quarterly averages.
Source: The Riksbank

15. Figure 14. Hours gap Per cent
Note. The hours gap (HP) refers to the deviation from trend in the number of hours worked calculated with a Hodrick-Prescott filter. The hours gap refers to the deviation in the number of hours worked from the Riksbank’s assumed trend for the numbers of hours worked.
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

16. Figure 15. GDP in different regions and countries Quarterly changes in per cent, annual rate, seasonally-adjusted data
Sources: Bureau of Economic Analysis, Eurostat, Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank