1. Final Report (phase 2) Expert Opinion Analysis The Case of Egypt
EU-MED AGPOL Project
Final Report (phase 2) Expert Opinion Analysis The Case of Egypt By
Gamal Siam
Center for Agricultural Economic Studies
(UC-CAES)
May 2006

2. Contents Introduction Delphi method Delphi analysis results
3.1. Quantitative results
3.2. Protection constraints
3.3. Delphi difficulties encountered
Conclusions

3. The objectives of the study:
To forecast Egypt’s export potential of major F&V export commodities under different liberalization scenarios.
To explore the major constraints in incresing FV Egyptian exports to EU.
To conclude procedures to eliminate constraints.

4. 1. Introduction Background The Eu is the Egypt’s biggest partner.
40% of Egyptian exports
34% of Egyptian imports
Agric. Trade represent about 10 percent
(9% of Egypt’s exports and 10% of Egypt’s imports)
: Protocol of Economic cooperation
May 2004: enforcement of the EU-Egypt Partnership Agreement (EUEPA)

5. Rationale for use of expert opinion
Impossible to get reliable econometric estimates.
Possible changes in protection beyond the scope of quantitative analysis.
Delphi method has been shown to be a reliable expert opinion.

6. 2. The Delphi method Select the most important F&V products.
Select panel members.
Define liberalization scenarios.
Prepare and distribute questionnaire.
Analyze questionnaire responses.

7. Product selection ** Criteria for product selection:
Importance in terms of exports to the EU.
Growth rates of exports.
Subject to protection procedures.
**Based on these criteria eight products have been selected:
Potatoes , orange, green beans, table grapes, strawberries, melons, onion and tomatoes.

8. Product coverage (cont’d)
Total value of Egypt’s exports of selected products to EU $168.2 million (2004) (43.6% of total)
Potatoes (15.6%), g. beans (5.8%), orange (7.2), t.grapes (7.0%), strawberries (3.2%), onion (1.5%), melons (0.2%), tomatoes (0.2%).
Percentages of exports to production potatoes (18.4%), g.beans (9.2%), orange ( ), t.grapes (14.2%), straberries (3.2%), melons (0.6%) tomatoes (0.1%).

9. Annual Growth Rates (%) of EU imports (quantity) 1992-2003
From Egypt
Total
Products
3.3
1.4
Orange
33.8
5.2
Strawberries
15.9
2.8
Onions
35.6
6.5
Table grapes
25.5
0.6
Melons
42.6
4.0
Tomatoes
-0.3
3.1
Potatoes
10.3
8.4
Green beans

10. Protection measures Product 59000 66055 54000 1700 3887 1205 17128
Quota
(tons)
2006
Actual (2004)
Imports
Window
Quota (2004)
Product
59000
66055 No
54000
Orange
1700
3887
1/1-31/3
1205
Strawberries
17128
20324
1/2-15/6
15314
Onions UL
17157
1/2-21/7
T. grapes
1210
1192
15/10-31/5
690
Melons
909
Tomatoes
250000
206202
13167
Potatoes
20000
28098
1/11-30/4
17500
G. beans

11. Impact of EUEPA on market access
Old Protocol
Product
Quota
(tons)
Window
Quota (tons)
54000
1/1-31/5
7840
1/1-31/3
Orange
1205
1/10-30/11
500
1/11-31/3
Strawberries
15314
5880
Onions UL
1/2-15/6
1/2-30/6
T. grapes
690
1/2-21/7
120
Melons
15/10-31/5
1/2-31/3
Tomatoes
130000
109670
Potatoes
17500
1/11-30/4
7680
G. beans

12. Coverage of quota (%) EUEPA (mt) Coverage of quota 2000-03 122 66.055
Egypt’s total actual exports are always greater than quotas for products subjects to quota system Actual exports within the windows are greater than quotas expect for orange and t. grapes
Coverage of quota (%)
EUEPA
(mt)
Coverage of quota
Product
122
66.055
271
21.282
Orange
322
3.886
464
2.320
Strawberries
1396
21.386
19.966
Onions -
17098
6891
T. grapes
172
1190
225
270
Melons
908
634
Tomatoes
159
206202
135
147795
Potatoes
161
28097
269
20647
G. beans

13. The Export Panel Composition (30 members):
Major exporters of the selected commodities.
Major producers of the selected commodities.
Government officials involved in trade.
Academics

14. Delphi results: Export potential estimate (2015) under PLS
Percentage (%) to:
Potential
Product
Quota
assumed
(2006)
(2004)
Acual 90
180
243
218
Orange 92
323
456
141
5.500
Strawberries
112
225
257
161
45.000
Onions 83
168
185
152
T. grapes
125
250
283
209
42.500
Melons
190
32594
Tomatoes
150
1500
Potatoes
165
290
2000
G. beans

15. Delphi results: Export potential estimate (2015) under FLS
Percentage (%) to:
Potential estimate mt
Product
PLS
Actual
(2004)
120
262
Potatoes
Strawberries
124
200
56.000
G. beans
182
Orange
Onions
105
34314
T. grapes
300
3.000
Tomatoes
150
252
Melons

16. Assumed Enlarged quota
Delphi results:
Export potential
Assumed Enlarged quota
Export Potential PL
Current Export 2004
Product
540
500
450
206
Potato 56 40 45 28
G. beans
120
100 66
Orange
34.3 -
32.6
17.2
T. Grapes
3.0
1.5 2
Tomato
2.4
1.2
Melons

17. Summary of Delphi results:
Annual % mt -
100
34560
Actual 2004
6.4
197.7
679094
PLS 2015
8.0
234.1
804314
FLS 2015

18. Delphi results: Production and marketing constraints
Quality constraints
Lack of post harvest facilities
Cooling/packing sheds
refrigerated transport
cold storage
High costs of transportation
Egyptian law does not permir efficient use of non-Egyptian trucks
Roads are often rough (slowing speed and reducing the quality shipments)
Other quality factors
Product variety and pesticide issues.
The pesticide issue fast track system.
Poor cultural practices.
Low quality domestic inputs.
Problem facing F&V exporters:
Cumbersome duty-drawback and adminission regimes.
Excessive paperwork.
Fees and delays for customs and inpections.
Protection Constraints:
Non-tariff barriers .
Eu-Egypt Partnership Agreement
Technical barriers-related measures applied by the EU

19. Conclusions
EUEPA came into effect in 2004 with partial liberalization of agric. Trade.
Shifting from the old preferences to the EUPA has made significant improvement in market access for Egypt’s exports of the studied products to EU markets, either through enlargement of zero tariff quotas or extending the windows or reducing tariffs and entry prices.
Egypt’s exports of most of fruit and vegetable products (in 2004) have responded positively to improvement of EU market access due to EUEPA.
Delphi results prove that Egypt’s export potential of thr studied products would respond positively to higher levels of liberalization

20. Thank you