1. Psychology of Weather Prediction
The psychological element is crucial. Must strive to be mentally neutral about forecasts.
Think like Mr. Spock (or Data)
In some ways, meteorologists are the last people you want to be making forecasts, because we love interesting weather and tend to forecast it too frequently.
Sometimes forecasters with great technical knowledge have poor performance because of psychological reasons!

2. Potentially Good Forecasters

3. Psychology of Weather Prediction
When many things are happening at once, meteorologists often focus on one of them to the detriment of others.
Humans like conceptual models and often hold on to them even when reality is at odds.
Humans are deterministic animals and often push uncertainty away when we shouldn’t.

4. Major Psychological Elements
LOVE
Meteorologists love interesting weather and tend to overforecast it
OVERCOMPENSATION
We tend to excessively compensate for previous error. This can produce a classic sinusoidal error evolution.
MACHO
There is a tendency to go for extreme or improbable situations. If you hit, it is like meteorological high!
INSECURE
Going with MOS or NWS forecast or fearing to deviate from them substantially.

5. The Bottom Line
Forecasting is very important and critically affects people’s lives. It requires professional detachment.

6. Understanding How Our Customers Use Weather Forecasts
Psychological studies are required to understand how people interpret forecasts.
How do we express predictions in a way to maximize understanding and correct response?
A particular issue for probabilistic prediction (UW Prof. Susan Joslyn of Psychology is working on this)

7. Case in Point: Poor Icons

8. NWS Precipitation Icons

9. Cloudiness icons

10. And a “slight” chance of freezing drizzle reminds one of a trip to Antarctica

11. Study by Professor Joslyn and students

13. The Winner

14. New NWS Icons

15. New Icons

16. Getting the Correct Response
Recently, excellent tornado forecasts in Joplin, MI and other locations were unable to stop massive deaths and injury…shows the need for psychological studies.
Forecasts were very skillful but folks are not taking the correct actions.
Also true with Hurricane Katrina.

17. Summary Making very skillful forecasts is only half the battle.
Just as important, and harder, is to get society to pay attention and to respond appropriately to save lives and property and to secure maximum economic benefit.
Psychology is a major component of the weather prediction enterprise