1. EEA-JRC-WHO 2008 Indicator report on CC Water quantity indicators
Luc Feyen
Presented by Carlo Lavalle
Land Management and Natural Hazards Unit
Institute for Environment and Sustainable Development,
Joint Research Centre, European Commission, Italy
Advisory group meeting
Copenhagen, 23 April 2008

2. Water quantity indicators
Sub-chapter 5.7
Indicators
(Lead author)
April 2008
Water quantity
river flow,
floods and
drought
Coordinator:
Luc Feyen
EEA Contact:
Peter Kristensen
5.7.1 Category introduction
JRC (Feyen)
Draft 6
5.7.2 River flow
5.7.3 River floods
5.7.4 River flow drought
Textbox Groundwater
EEA (Kristensen)

3. 5.7.1 Category introduction
important to stress that
several pressures on water, not only CC
very difficult to detect changes, and link to CC,
especially for extreme events
projections are uncertain
links with other indicators (precipitation, snow)

4. Water quantity indicators
Issue
Indicator(s)
Past
trend
Projec-
tions
Spatial
coverage
River flow
Change in annual runoff during the 20th century
Changes in annual and seasonal runoff between and X
European
River floods
Recurrence of flood events in Europe for the period
Relative change in 100-year return level of river discharge
River flow droughts
Change in drought severity in Europe between
Change in drought severity in France between
Relative change in mean annual and summer minimum 7-day runoff
+ France
Groundwater/
aquifer recharge
Text box

5. 5.7.2 River flow 5.7.2 observed trend: now European map included
Relative change in runoff (%) during the twentieth century. Period
compared to From Milly et al., Nature, 2005.

6. 5.7.2 River flow 5.7.2 projected trend
Relative change in seasonal and annual runoff between compared to (SRES A2). From Dankers and Feyen, 2008.

7. 5.7.2 River flow 5.7.2 projected trend
This figure has been added to show better the projected changes in seasonality of flow in a few catchments.
Change in daily average river flow between (blue line) and (black line). Simulations with LISFLOOD driven by HIRHAM – HadAM3H/ HadCM3 and IPCC SRES scenario A2 (Dankers and Feyen, 2008).

8. 5.7.3 River floods 5.7.3 observed trend
Recurrence of flood events in Europe for the period (EEA, 2006).
The figure on the left does not give any information about a trend. The figure on the right (used in the previous report) shows a clear trend in the number of events, but this is mainly caused by better reporting.
If the figure on the right is preferred, it should be made clear that the rise has little to do with climate change, but increased damages have caused more attention to floods, and better reporting has led to an increase of reported events.

9. 5.7.3 River floods 5.7.3 projected trend
Relative change in 100-year return level of river discharge between scenario ( , SRES A2) and control period ( ). From Dankers and Feyen, 2008.

10. 5.7.4 River flow droughts 5.7.4 observed trend
It was suggested to combine the information from different studies into one figure. However, the authors of the different studies did not prefer this option due to some difference in analysis and time period used to derived indicators. Therefore, 2 figures are presented which both show changes in the drought severity.
change in drought severity
between
change in drought severity in
France between

11. 5.7.4 River flow droughts 5.7.4 projected trend
Relative change in mean annual and summer minimum 7-day river flow between scenario ( , SRES A2) and control period ( ). From Feyen and Dankers, 2008.

12. Water quantity - conclusions
introduction captures main issues
3 indicators (river flow, floods, droughts) well developed
1 textbox on groundwater