1. Valuing Travel Time Savings: problems with the paradigm
David Metz
Centre for Transport Studies
University College London

8. National Travel Survey

10. Economic benefits of Crossrail (DfT 2005)

14. Problems with appraisal based on time savings
SP values of time are sensitive to context
Tenuous connection between short-term SP values of time and value of long term development
No distribution of benefits
By region (for long distance rail)
By market segment (for roads)
Observable changes in land use and value disregarded, hence disconnect with Business Case

15. Journey time reliability
Reliability Ratio: value of travel time variability (SD) divided by the value of travel time savings.
RR enables changes in variability of journey time to be expressed in monetary terms
Research findings: reduce RR for car travel from 0.8 to 0.4

19. Problems with WebTAG appraisal
Under-estimate benefits of urban rail investments
Over-estimate benefits of inter-urban road investments
No indication of distribution of benefits
Under-estimate benefits of digital technologies

20. Treasury guidance Green Book – investment analysis. WebTAG an outlier
Aqua Book – quality assurance of analytical models
RIGOUR
Grounded in reality: connections made between the analysis and its real consequences

21. Transport Planning Society membership survey 2016
“Most TPS members consistently say that appraisal methods should be reformed. In the most recent survey, only 3.5% considered current methods did not need reform, with 60% having major issues with them. The top reason for this by some way was the need to appraise changes in land values, land-use or travel behaviour.”

22. Space, not Time
Transport moves people and good through space (not time)
Investment that increases speed or capacity leads to more movement through space (not time)
Need economic framework that recognises spatial characteristics – Spatial Economics