1. Patterns and Dynamics of Global Meat Production
Prof. Dr. Hans-Wilhelm Windhorst
WING, Universität Vechta
Paper presented at the Summer School
Max-Rubner Institut
September 20th, 2016
in Kulmbach

2. Agenda
Country Development Groups: a classification.
The role of the country development groups
in chicken, pig and cattle meat production.
Winners and losers.
A perspective of the future dynamics.

3. Classification of countries by their development status1.
Classification of countries
by their development status

4. Classification of the 211 countries (Country Development Groups):
LLDC (Least Developed Countries)
= 46 countries
LDC (Less Developed Countries)
= 120 countries
NIC (Newly Industrialised Countries)
= 10 countries
OIC (Old Industrialised Countries)
= 35 countries

5. The role of the country development groups 2.
The role of the country development groups
in global chicken meat production

6. Chicken meat production**
The share of the CDG in global population and in meat chicken
and chicken meat production (2013); data in %
CDG
Countries
Global
Population
Meat chicken*
production
Chicken meat production**
LLDC
LDC
NIC
OIC 46
120 10 35
12.5
20.3
52.0
15.2
3.7
25.6
40.2
30.5
2.3
20.9
43.1
33.7
Total
211
100.0
* only chickens for meat production
** meat of broilers and spent hens

7. Development of global chicken meat production between 1993 and 2013 by
CDG
Year
LLDC
LDC
NIC
OIC
World
1993
2003
2013
663
1,194
2,247
8,061
11,086
20,062
13,542
26,066
41,407
19,077
27,011
32,405
42,313
65,357
96,121
Increase (%)
255.0
148.8
205.8
69.9
132.9
Increase
(1.000 t)
1,614
12,001
27,865
13,328
54,808
Share (%) in
increase
2.9
21.9
50.8
24.3
100.0

8. The changing contribution of the CDG in global chicken meat production
( )

9. Global chicken meat production (2013) by CDG

10. The six leading countries in chicken meat production in the CDG LLDC and LDC
(2013), data in 1,000 t
LLDC
LDC
Country
Chicken meat
share (%) in global
product.
Share (%) in global
production
Myanmar
1,082
1.1
Iran
1,956
2.0
Bangladesh
174
0.2
Indonesia
1,838
1.9
Yemen
153
0.1
Argentina
1,780
Tanzania 87
Venezuela
1,276
1.3
Senegal 65
Columbia
Uganda
Peru
1,203
6 countries
1,626
1.7
9,329
9.7
CDG total
2,247
2.3
21,591
22.5

11. The six leading countries in chicken meat production in the CDG NIC and OIC
(2013), data in 1,000 t
NIC
OIC
Country
Chicken meat
share (%) in global
product.
Share (%) in global
production
China
13,372
13.9
USA
17,397
18.1
Brazil
12,837
13.4
Poland
1,517
1.6
Russ. Fed
3,463
3.6
Japan
1,450
1.5
Mexico
2,808
2.9
Spain
1,172
1.2
India
2,328
2.4
France
1,120
Turkey
1,758
1.8
Canada
1,077
1.1
6 countries
36,566
38.0
23,733
24.7
CDG total
41,285
43.0
30,998
32.2
To compare: Germany: 951,000 t

12. The ten countries with the highest increase of chicken meat production
between 1993 and 2013; data in 1,000 t
Chicken meat
Brazil
9,244
China
8,800
USA
7,178
Russ. Federation
2,186
Mexico
1,768
India
1,751
Iran
1,396
Turkey
1,314
Poland
1,258
Indonesia
1,150
Total
36,045

13. Results (1):
Between 1993 and 2013, the NIC contributed 50,9 % to the growth of
global chicken meat production, the OIC 24,3 %.
Between 1993 and 2013 the OIC lost 11.7 % of their share in global
chicken meat production, the NIC gained 10.3 %.
Brazil, China and the USA were the three countries with the highest
absolute increase in chicken meat production between 1993 and
2013.

14. 5.
Perspectives

15. Projected development of global meat production between
2014 and 2024; data in 1,000 t
Meat type
2014
2024
Increase
(1.000 t)
(%)
Poultry meat
Pig meat
Cattle meat
109,403
117,265
67,984
133,786
128,762
75,391
24,383
11,497
7,407
22.3
9.8
10.9
Total
294,652
337,939
43,287
14.7
In 2024, poultry meat will be the most important meat type!
OECD-FAO 2015 Agricultural Outlook

16. Projected consumption of poultry meat in (2024) in selected countries

17. Countries with the highest deficit resp
Countries with the highest deficit resp. surplus in chicken meat supply (2024)

18. Summary:
Poultry meat production and demand will grow considerably in the next
decade.
The highest growth rates will show the LDC and NIC, a particular dynamics
is projected for the NIC.
The OIC will lose shares in global chicken meat production despite an
absolute growth in the production volume.
The main steering factors are: no religious taboos, fast adaption to changes
in the markets and in products, excellent feed conversion rates,
comparatively low consumer prices.

19. The role of the country development groups global pig meat production4.
The role of the country development groups
global pig meat production

20. Year LLDC LDC NIC OIC World 1993 2003 2013 504 834 1,549 6,761 7,146
Development of global pig meat production between 1993 and 2013 by CDG;
data in 1,000 t
Year
LLDC
LDC
NIC
OIC
World
1993
2003
2013
504
834
1,549
6,761
7,146
9,636
34,946
48,749
64,581
31,580
35,541
37,269
73,791
92,270
113,035
Increase (%)
297.3
42.5
84.8
18.0
53.2
Increase
(1.000 t)
1,045
2,875
29,635
5,689
39,244
Share(%) in increase
2.7
7.3
75.5
14.4 -
Windhorst 2016

21. The share of the CDG in global population and in fattening pigs
and pig meat production (2013); data in %
CDG
Countries
Global population
Fattening
pigs
Pig meat production
LLDC
LDC
NIC
OIC 46
120 10 35
12.5
20.3
52.0
15.2
2.1
9.0
60.0
29.0
1.4
8.5
57.1
33.0
Gesamt
211
100.0
*100.0

22. The changing contribution of the CDG in global pig meat production
( )

23. Global pig meat production (2013) by CDG; data in mill. t

24. The six leading countries in pig meat production in the LLDC and LDC
(2013), data in 1,000 t
LLDC
LDC
Country
Pig meat
product.
Share (%) in global
Myanmar
621
0.5
Vietnam
3,218
2.8
Mozambique
130
0.1
Ukraine
748
0.7
Uganda
117
Belarus
469
0.4
Cambodia 99
Argentina
416
Angola 94
Romania
398
Malawi 89
Nigeria
254
0.2
6 countries
1,150
1.0
5,503
4.9
CDG total
1,549
1.2
10,469
9.3
To compare: Germany: 5,5 Mio. t

25. Die sechs führenden Länder in der Schweinefleischerzeugung der NIC und OIC
(2013), Angaben in t
NIC
OIC
Country
Pig meat
product.
Share (%) in global
China
53,752
47.6
USA
10,510
9.3
Brazil
3,280
2.9
Germany
5,494
4.9
Russ. Feder.
2,816
2.5
Spain
3,431
3.0
Philippines
1,681
1.5
France
2,121
1.9
Mexico
1,284
1.1
Canada
1,977
1.7
Thailand
967
0.9
Poland
1,745
6 countries
63,780
56.5
19,784
17.5
CDG total
64,581
57.1
36,436
33.0

26. The ten countries with the highest increase in pig meat production between
1993 and 2013; data in 1,000 t
Pig meat
China
26,187
USA
2,759
Viet Nam
2,340
Germany
1,848
Brazil
1,780
Spain
1,343
Philippines
800
Canada
783
Myanmar
552
Mexico
462
Total
38,854

27. Results (2):
The NIC contributed 75,5 % to the global increase of pig meat
production between 1993 and 2013, the LLDC and LDC 10,0 %
and the OIC 14,4 %.
The NIC gained 9.7 % in the global share of pig meat production,
the OIC lost 9.7 %.
In 2013, the NIC and the LLDC resp. LDC already contributed
67,0 % to global pig meat production, the NIC alone 57,1 %,
in contrast, the share of the OIC dropped to only 33,0 %.

28. 5.
Perspektives

29. Projected development of global meat production between
2014 and 2024; data in 1,000 t
Meat type
2014
2024
Increase
(1.000 t)
(%)
Poultry meat
Pig meat
Cattle meat
109,403
117,265
67,984
133,786
128,762
75,391
24,383
11,497
7,407
22.3
9.8
10.9
Total
294,652
337,939
43,287
14.7
In 2024, poultry meat will be the most important meat type, pig meat
will rank in second place!
OECD-FAO 2015 Agricultural Outlook

30. Projected per capita consumption of pig meat in selected countries (2024)

31. Projected increase of pig meat production in selected countries
between 2014 and 2024

32. Countries with the highest projected deficit resp
Countries with the highest projected deficit resp. surplus in pig meat supply
(2024)

33. The role of the country development groups 6.
The role of the country development groups
global cattle meat production

34. Development of global meat production between 1993 and 2013
by meat types; data in 1,000 t
Year
Pig
meat
Chicken
Cattle
1993
2003
2013
73,791
92,270
113,035
41,313
65,357
96,121
52,125
57,096
63,984
Increase (1,000 t)
39,244
54,808
11,859
Increase (%)
53.2
132.9
22.8

35. Global meat production (2013) by meat types and CDG; data in 1,000 t
Pig
meat
Chicken
Cattle
LLDC
LDC
NIC
OIC
1,549
9,636
64,581
37,269
2,247
21,591
41,285
30,998
3,543
13,817
22,595
24,071
Total
113,035
96,121
63,976

36. The changing contribution of the CDG to global meat
production between 1993 and 2013; data in %
CDG
Pig meat
Chicken meat
Cattle meat
1993
2013
LLDC
LDC NIC OIC
0.7
10.5
45.8
43.0
1.4
8.5
57.1
33.0
1.5
19.2
31.5
47.8
2.3
22.5
32.2
3.9
22.8
26.5
46.8
5.5
21.6
35.3
37.6

37. The six leading countries in global cattle meat production and
their share in the global production volume (2013); data in 1,000 t
Country
Production
Share (%)
USA
11,698
18.3
Brazil
9,675
15.1
China
6,394
10.0
Argentina
2,822
4.4
Australia
2,318
3.6
Mexico
1,807
2.8
6 countries
34,714
54.3
World
63,984
100.0
FAO
To compare: Germany (Rank 9): 1,106

38. 7.
Perspektives

39. Projected per capita consumption of cattle meat
in selected countries (2024)

40. Projected increase of cattle meat production in selected countries
between 2014 and 2024

41. Countries with the highest projected deficit resp. surplus
in cattle meat supply (2024)

42. Overall summary:
Poultry and pig meat will show high growth rates in the coming
decade.
The highest absolute growth rates will be found in the NIC
and the LDC.
The OIC will lose shares in global pig and chicken meat production
and only lead in cattle meat production.
Cattle meat will show the lowest absolute and relative growth
rates.

43. and the design of maps and graphs:
I would like to thank my research associates for their support in data collection
and the design of maps and graphs:
Dipl.-Geogr. Désirée Heijne
Dipl.-Geogr. Ursula Welting

44. Thank you for your attention!