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Patterns and Dynamics of Global Meat Production

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Presentation on theme: "Patterns and Dynamics of Global Meat Production"— Presentation transcript:

1 Patterns and Dynamics of Global Meat Production
Prof. Dr. Hans-Wilhelm Windhorst WING, Universität Vechta Paper presented at the Summer School Max-Rubner Institut September 20th, 2016 in Kulmbach

2 Agenda Country Development Groups: a classification. The role of the country development groups in chicken, pig and cattle meat production. Winners and losers. A perspective of the future dynamics.

3 Classification of countries by their development status
1. Classification of countries by their development status

4 Classification of the 211 countries (Country Development Groups):
LLDC (Least Developed Countries) = 46 countries LDC (Less Developed Countries) = 120 countries NIC (Newly Industrialised Countries) = 10 countries OIC (Old Industrialised Countries) = 35 countries

5 The role of the country development groups
2. The role of the country development groups in global chicken meat production

6 Chicken meat production**
The share of the CDG in global population and in meat chicken and chicken meat production (2013); data in % CDG Countries Global Population Meat chicken* production Chicken meat production** LLDC LDC NIC OIC 46 120 10 35 12.5 20.3 52.0 15.2 3.7 25.6 40.2 30.5 2.3 20.9 43.1 33.7 Total 211 100.0 * only chickens for meat production ** meat of broilers and spent hens

7 Development of global chicken meat production between 1993 and 2013 by
CDG Year LLDC LDC NIC OIC World 1993 2003 2013 663 1,194 2,247 8,061 11,086 20,062 13,542 26,066 41,407 19,077 27,011 32,405 42,313 65,357 96,121 Increase (%) 255.0 148.8 205.8 69.9 132.9 Increase (1.000 t) 1,614 12,001 27,865 13,328 54,808 Share (%) in increase 2.9 21.9 50.8 24.3 100.0

8 The changing contribution of the CDG in global chicken meat production
( )

9 Global chicken meat production (2013) by CDG

10 The six leading countries in chicken meat production in the CDG LLDC and LDC
(2013), data in 1,000 t LLDC LDC Country Chicken meat share (%) in global product. Share (%) in global production Myanmar 1,082 1.1 Iran 1,956 2.0 Bangladesh 174 0.2 Indonesia 1,838 1.9 Yemen 153 0.1 Argentina 1,780 Tanzania 87 Venezuela 1,276 1.3 Senegal 65 Columbia Uganda Peru 1,203 6 countries 1,626 1.7 9,329 9.7 CDG total 2,247 2.3 21,591 22.5

11 The six leading countries in chicken meat production in the CDG NIC and OIC
(2013), data in 1,000 t NIC OIC Country Chicken meat share (%) in global product. Share (%) in global production China 13,372 13.9 USA 17,397 18.1 Brazil 12,837 13.4 Poland 1,517 1.6 Russ. Fed 3,463 3.6 Japan 1,450 1.5 Mexico 2,808 2.9 Spain 1,172 1.2 India 2,328 2.4 France 1,120 Turkey 1,758 1.8 Canada 1,077 1.1 6 countries 36,566 38.0 23,733 24.7 CDG total 41,285 43.0 30,998 32.2 To compare: Germany: 951,000 t

12 The ten countries with the highest increase of chicken meat production
between 1993 and 2013; data in 1,000 t Chicken meat Brazil 9,244 China 8,800 USA 7,178 Russ. Federation 2,186 Mexico 1,768 India 1,751 Iran 1,396 Turkey 1,314 Poland 1,258 Indonesia 1,150 Total 36,045

13 Results (1): Between 1993 and 2013, the NIC contributed 50,9 % to the growth of global chicken meat production, the OIC 24,3 %. Between 1993 and 2013 the OIC lost 11.7 % of their share in global chicken meat production, the NIC gained 10.3 %. Brazil, China and the USA were the three countries with the highest absolute increase in chicken meat production between 1993 and 2013.

14 5. Perspectives

15 Projected development of global meat production between
2014 and 2024; data in 1,000 t Meat type 2014 2024 Increase (1.000 t) (%) Poultry meat Pig meat Cattle meat 109,403 117,265 67,984 133,786 128,762 75,391 24,383 11,497 7,407 22.3 9.8 10.9 Total 294,652 337,939 43,287 14.7 In 2024, poultry meat will be the most important meat type! OECD-FAO 2015 Agricultural Outlook

16 Projected consumption of poultry meat in (2024) in selected countries

17 Countries with the highest deficit resp
Countries with the highest deficit resp. surplus in chicken meat supply (2024)

18 Summary: Poultry meat production and demand will grow considerably in the next decade. The highest growth rates will show the LDC and NIC, a particular dynamics is projected for the NIC. The OIC will lose shares in global chicken meat production despite an absolute growth in the production volume. The main steering factors are: no religious taboos, fast adaption to changes in the markets and in products, excellent feed conversion rates, comparatively low consumer prices.

19 The role of the country development groups global pig meat production
4. The role of the country development groups global pig meat production

20 Year LLDC LDC NIC OIC World 1993 2003 2013 504 834 1,549 6,761 7,146
Development of global pig meat production between 1993 and 2013 by CDG; data in 1,000 t Year LLDC LDC NIC OIC World 1993 2003 2013 504 834 1,549 6,761 7,146 9,636 34,946 48,749 64,581 31,580 35,541 37,269 73,791 92,270 113,035 Increase (%) 297.3 42.5 84.8 18.0 53.2 Increase (1.000 t) 1,045 2,875 29,635 5,689 39,244 Share(%) in increase 2.7 7.3 75.5 14.4 - Windhorst 2016

21 The share of the CDG in global population and in fattening pigs
and pig meat production (2013); data in % CDG Countries Global population Fattening pigs Pig meat production LLDC LDC NIC OIC 46 120 10 35 12.5 20.3 52.0 15.2 2.1 9.0 60.0 29.0 1.4 8.5 57.1 33.0 Gesamt 211 100.0 *100.0

22 The changing contribution of the CDG in global pig meat production
( )

23 Global pig meat production (2013) by CDG; data in mill. t

24 The six leading countries in pig meat production in the LLDC and LDC
(2013), data in 1,000 t LLDC LDC Country Pig meat product. Share (%) in global Myanmar 621 0.5 Vietnam 3,218 2.8 Mozambique 130 0.1 Ukraine 748 0.7 Uganda 117 Belarus 469 0.4 Cambodia 99 Argentina 416 Angola 94 Romania 398 Malawi 89 Nigeria 254 0.2 6 countries 1,150 1.0 5,503 4.9 CDG total 1,549 1.2 10,469 9.3 To compare: Germany: 5,5 Mio. t

25 Die sechs führenden Länder in der Schweinefleischerzeugung der NIC und OIC
(2013), Angaben in t NIC OIC Country Pig meat product. Share (%) in global China 53,752 47.6 USA 10,510 9.3 Brazil 3,280 2.9 Germany 5,494 4.9 Russ. Feder. 2,816 2.5 Spain 3,431 3.0 Philippines 1,681 1.5 France 2,121 1.9 Mexico 1,284 1.1 Canada 1,977 1.7 Thailand 967 0.9 Poland 1,745 6 countries 63,780 56.5 19,784 17.5 CDG total 64,581 57.1 36,436 33.0

26 The ten countries with the highest increase in pig meat production between
1993 and 2013; data in 1,000 t Pig meat China 26,187 USA 2,759 Viet Nam 2,340 Germany 1,848 Brazil 1,780 Spain 1,343 Philippines 800 Canada 783 Myanmar 552 Mexico 462 Total 38,854

27 Results (2): The NIC contributed 75,5 % to the global increase of pig meat production between 1993 and 2013, the LLDC and LDC 10,0 % and the OIC 14,4 %. The NIC gained 9.7 % in the global share of pig meat production, the OIC lost 9.7 %. In 2013, the NIC and the LLDC resp. LDC already contributed 67,0 % to global pig meat production, the NIC alone 57,1 %, in contrast, the share of the OIC dropped to only 33,0 %.

28 5. Perspektives

29 Projected development of global meat production between
2014 and 2024; data in 1,000 t Meat type 2014 2024 Increase (1.000 t) (%) Poultry meat Pig meat Cattle meat 109,403 117,265 67,984 133,786 128,762 75,391 24,383 11,497 7,407 22.3 9.8 10.9 Total 294,652 337,939 43,287 14.7 In 2024, poultry meat will be the most important meat type, pig meat will rank in second place! OECD-FAO 2015 Agricultural Outlook

30 Projected per capita consumption of pig meat in selected countries (2024)

31 Projected increase of pig meat production in selected countries
between 2014 and 2024

32 Countries with the highest projected deficit resp
Countries with the highest projected deficit resp. surplus in pig meat supply (2024)

33 The role of the country development groups
6. The role of the country development groups global cattle meat production

34 Development of global meat production between 1993 and 2013
by meat types; data in 1,000 t Year Pig meat Chicken Cattle 1993 2003 2013 73,791 92,270 113,035 41,313 65,357 96,121 52,125 57,096 63,984 Increase (1,000 t) 39,244 54,808 11,859 Increase (%) 53.2 132.9 22.8

35 Global meat production (2013) by meat types and CDG; data in 1,000 t
Pig meat Chicken Cattle LLDC LDC NIC OIC 1,549 9,636 64,581 37,269 2,247 21,591 41,285 30,998 3,543 13,817 22,595 24,071 Total 113,035 96,121 63,976

36 The changing contribution of the CDG to global meat
production between 1993 and 2013; data in % CDG Pig meat Chicken meat Cattle meat 1993 2013 LLDC LDC NIC OIC 0.7 10.5 45.8 43.0 1.4 8.5 57.1 33.0 1.5 19.2 31.5 47.8 2.3 22.5 32.2 3.9 22.8 26.5 46.8 5.5 21.6 35.3 37.6

37 The six leading countries in global cattle meat production and
their share in the global production volume (2013); data in 1,000 t Country Production Share (%) USA 11,698 18.3 Brazil 9,675 15.1 China 6,394 10.0 Argentina 2,822 4.4 Australia 2,318 3.6 Mexico 1,807 2.8 6 countries 34,714 54.3 World 63,984 100.0 FAO To compare: Germany (Rank 9): 1,106

38 7. Perspektives

39 Projected per capita consumption of cattle meat
in selected countries (2024)

40 Projected increase of cattle meat production in selected countries
between 2014 and 2024

41 Countries with the highest projected deficit resp. surplus
in cattle meat supply (2024)

42 Overall summary: Poultry and pig meat will show high growth rates in the coming decade. The highest absolute growth rates will be found in the NIC and the LDC. The OIC will lose shares in global pig and chicken meat production and only lead in cattle meat production. Cattle meat will show the lowest absolute and relative growth rates.

43 and the design of maps and graphs:
I would like to thank my research associates for their support in data collection and the design of maps and graphs: Dipl.-Geogr. Désirée Heijne Dipl.-Geogr. Ursula Welting

44 Thank you for your attention!


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