1. Forecasting Transient Heliospheric Solar Wind Parameters at the Locations of the Inner Planets
Bernard V. Jackson, P. Paul Hick, Andrew Buffington, John M. Clover
Center for Astrophysics and Space Sciences,
University of California at San Diego, LaJolla, CA, USA
and
Munetoshi Tokumaru
Solar-Terrestrial Environment Laboratory, Nagoya University, Japan
Bernie
Title page: Bernard Jackson could not be present because he is giving another talk today at IAU Joint Discussion Session 16 in Rio de Janerio
Paul
Andy
John
Munetoshi

2. Introduction: IPS and SMEI remote-sensing data analyses
Tomographic technique used to determine Solar Wind 3D structure
Comparisons and forecasts at the inner planets
I will discuss how SMEI and IPS remote sensing data analyses have been used to determine the global heliospheric solar wind parameters – density and velocity.
I discuss both types of data. I will concentrate on the University of California, San Diego time-dependent tomographic technique that has been used to determine CME structure and their comparison with IPS velocities.
At the end of the talk I will show results of a 5-year study comparing the IPS results with Mars Global Surveyor magnetometer measurements of solar wind ram pressure.

3. Current STELab IPS Heliospheric Analyses
New STELab IPS array at Toyokawa - photo February 17, (array now operates well – year-round operation)

4. Let’s start with what we observe and analyze
DATA
Let’s start with what we observe and analyze
STELab interplanetary scintillation 327 MHz remote-sensing of the interplanetary medium is shown. <click> Density inhomogenieties in the solar wind on the order of 150 km size from point radio sources produce an intensity pattern variation on the ground that travels away from the Sun with the solar wind speed. This pattern, measured and correlated between different radio sites in Japan allows a determination of the solar wind speed.
IPS line-of-sight response
STELab IPS array near Mt. Fuji
STELab IPS array systems

5. (Courtesy of P.K. Manoharan)
Density Turbulence
Scintillation index, m, is a measure of level of turbulence
Normalized Scintillation index, g = m(R) / <m(R)>
g > 1  enhancement in Ne
g  1  ambient level of Ne
g < 1  rarefaction in Ne
The measurement of the brightness variation on the ground follows a specific pattern relative to the distance of the radio source from the Sun. A scintillation enhancement with respect to the ambient wind identifies the presence of a region of increased turbulence/density and a possible CME along the line-of-sight to the radio source.
(Courtesy of P.K. Manoharan)
A scintillation enhancement with respect to the ambient wind identifies the presence of a region of increased turbulence/density and a possible CME along the line-of-sight to the radio source.

6. IPS line-of-sight response
Jackson, B.V., et al., 2008, Adv. in Geosciences, 21, 339
Heliospheric C.A.T. Analyses: example line-of-sight distribution for each sky location to form the source surface of the 3D reconstruction.
STELab IPS
The same is shown for daily observations from STELab IPS observations. <click> For the IPS, the “Nagoya” line of sight weighting provides a weight for each source observation on the source surface.
14 July 2000
13 July 2000

7. IPS C.A.T. Analysis Bastille Day Event 14 July 2000
Jackson, B.V., et al., 2002, Solar Wind 10, 31
IPS C.A.T. Analysis
Bastille Day Event 14 July 2000

8. IPS C.A.T. Analysis Bastille Day Event 14 July 2000
Jackson, B.V., et al., 2002, Solar Wind 10, 31
IPS C.A.T. Analysis
Bastille Day Event 14 July 2000

9. IPS C.A.T. Analysis Bastille Day Event 14 July 2000
Jackson, B.V., et al., 2002, Solar Wind 10, 31
IPS C.A.T. Analysis
Bastille Day Event 14 July 2000

10. Magnetic Field Extrapolation
Zhao, X. P. and Hoeksema, J. T., 1995, J. Geophys. Res., 100 (A1), 19.
Magnetic Field Extrapolation
Inner region: the CSSS model calculates the magnetic field using photospheric measurements and a horizontal current model.
2. Middle region: the CSSS model opens the field lines. In the outer region.
3. Outer region: the UCSD tomography convects the magnetic field along velocity flow lines.
Dunn et al., 2005, Solar Physics 227: 339–353.

11. IPS C.A.T. Analysis Potential field modeling added
Dunn, T.J., et al., 2005, Solar Phys., 227, 339
Potential field modeling added

12. Solar Wind Pressure derived from the MGS Magnetometer at Mars
Crider, D.H., et al., 2003, J. Geophys. Res., 108(A12), 1461
Solar Wind Pressure derived from
the MGS Magnetometer at Mars
Mars Global Surveyor (MGS) Artist’s conception. One of two magnetometers on MGS (at the end of the solar panels) is shown. The magnetometers measured the Mars magnetospheric field, and the variations of this field from the portion of the MGS orbit within the Martian magnetosphere allowed a solar wind ram pressure to be derived by relating the changes in this field at the orbit location to the ram location of the solar wind. No continuous direct measurements of solar wind plasma densities or velocities are available at Mars during this time.

13. | IPS 3D Reconstruction 28 May 2003 ‘Halo’ CME event sequence
Jackson, B.V., et al., 2007, Solar Phys., 2007, 241: 385–396
IPS 3D Reconstruction
28 May 2003 ‘Halo’ CME event sequence
Density derived from IPS
Density time-dependent IPS 3D-reconstruction example during May 2003 when Mars is in the same hemisphere as the Earth. The Earth and Mars location are shown in both image sets.
(Munetoshi, don’t speak of this, but the CME mass reconstructed from SMEI for the CME sequence is actually NOT the CME mass portion that hits Mars for this event as far as I can tell. The SMEI-reconstructed CME is present, and is the one that is just at Earth and to the East of Earth in these reconstructions. There are several events during this period, and the major event observed at Mars is a more-Westerly portion of the event sequence and proceeds the events that erupt from the Sun on around May. SMEI observes this earlier event, but on 30 May 2003 the event has almost completely passed the 1.5 AU outer limit in the SMEI reconstructions of slides 16 and 17.) |

14. Jackson, B.V., et al., 2007, Solar Phys., 241: 385–396
IPS 3D-Reconstruction
20 May – 05 June 2003, (28 May ‘Halo’ CME)
Pressure derived from IPS at Mars
Solar Wind Pressure
(ρ = 2 X 106 nV2)
Time-dependent 3D-reconstruction example of a CME when Mars is in the same hemisphere as the Earth. The Earth and Mars location is shown on the left – the solar wind pressure at Mars derived from MGS and IPS data is shown on the left.

15. IPS 3D-Reconstruction 12 September – 26 September 2002 period
Jackson, B.V., et al., 2007, Solar Phys., 2007, 241: 385–396
IPS 3D-Reconstruction
12 September – 26 September 2002 period
Density
Pressure (ρ = 2 X 106 nV2)
Time-dependent 3D-reconstruction example of a CME when Mars is in the hemisphere opposite the Earth. Density shown on the left – the solar wind pressure at Mars from MGS and IPS is shown on the right.

16. Web Analysis Runs Automatically Using Linux on a P.C.
UCSD Web pages
UCSD IPS analysis
Web Analysis Runs Automatically Using Linux on a P.C.

17. Web Analysis Runs Automatically Using Linux on a P.C.
UCSD time-dependent IPS Web forecast
Velocity model time-series
G-level sky map
Real-time tomographic analysis of the solar wind on April 29-30, 2004 showing a halo CME response in the interplanetary medium.
Web Analysis Runs Automatically Using Linux on a P.C.

18. IPS line-of-sight response
Jackson, B.V., et al., 2008, Adv. in Geosciences, 21, 339
Jackson, B.V., et al., 2010, Solar Phys., 265,
Heliospheric C.A.T. Analyses: example line-of-sight distribution for each sky location to form the source surface of the 3D reconstruction.
Innovation
STELab IPS
The same is shown for daily observations from STELab IPS observations. <click> For the IPS, the “Nagoya” line of sight weighting provides a weight for each source observation on the source surface. *
13 July 2000
Inclusion of in-situ measurements into the 3D-reconstructions

19. Heliospheric 3D-reconstructions
Jackson, B.V., et al., 2010, Solar Phys., 265,
Heliospheric 3D-reconstructions
Innovation
Innovation
Inclusion of in-situ measurements into the 3D-reconstructions

20. Heliospheric 3D-reconstructions
Jackson, B.V., et al., 2010, Solar Phys., 265,
Heliospheric 3D-reconstructions
Innovation 
Forecasts work better if the values match up to the present. The CCMC is running this forecast model with UCSD help.

21. Heliospheric 3D-reconstructions
Being evaluated at the CCMC
Jackson, B.V., et al., 2010, Solar Phys., 265,
Innovation
Heliospheric 3D-reconstructions
Density
Forecast
Inclusion of in-situ measurements into the 3D-reconstructions
Forecasts work better if the values match up to the present.
Velocity
Forecast

22. Heliospheric 3D-reconstructions
Being evaluated at the CCMC
Jackson, B.V., et al., 2010, Solar Phys., 265,
Innovation
Heliospheric 3D-reconstructions
Density
Density
Forecast
Inclusion of in-situ measurements into the 3D-reconstructions
Forecasts work better if the values match up to the present.
Velocity
Velocity
Forecast

23. Web Analysis Runs Automatically Using Linux on a P.C.
Density overview
UCSD IPS analysis
Web Analysis Runs Automatically Using Linux on a P.C.

24. Velocity and Density http://ips.ucsd.edu/ Earth
Web Analysis Runs Automatically Using Linux on a P.C.

25. Velocity and Density http://ips.ucsd.edu/ Mercury
Web Analysis Runs Automatically Using Linux on a P.C.

26. Velocity and Density http://ips.ucsd.edu/ Mars
Web Analysis Runs Automatically Using Linux on a P.C.

27. Radial and Tangential Magnetic Field
Earth
Radial and Tangential Magnetic Field
Web Analysis Runs Automatically Using Linux on a P.C.

28. Radial and Tangential Magnetic Field
Mercury
Radial and Tangential Magnetic Field
Web Analysis Runs Automatically Using Linux on a P.C.

29. Radial and Tangential Magnetic Field
Mars
Radial and Tangential Magnetic Field
Web Analysis Runs Automatically Using Linux on a P.C.

30. The SERP/STP Coriolis spacecraft at Vanden-berg prior to flight.
The Solar Mass Ejection Imager (SMEI) Mission (Solar Phys., 225, )
B. V. Jackson, A. Buffington, P. P. Hick
Center for Astrophysics and Space Sciences, University of California at San Diego, LaJolla, CA.
R.C. Altrock, S. Figueroa, P.E. Holladay, J.C. Johnston, S.W. Kahler, J.B. Mozer, S. Price, R.R. Radick, R. Sagalyn, D. Sinclair
Air Force Research Laboratory/Space Vehicles Directorate (AFRL/VS), Hanscom AFB, MA
G.M. Simnett, C.J. Eyles, M.P. Cooke, S.J. Tappin
School of Physics and Space Research, University of Birmingham, UK
T. Kuchar, D. Mizuno, D.F.Webb
ISR, Boston College, Newton Center, MA
P.A. Anderson
Boston University, Boston, MA
S.L. Keil
National Solar Observatory, Sunspot, NM
R.E. Gold
Johns Hopkins University/Applied Physics Laboratory, Laurel, MD
N.R. Waltham
Space Science Dept., Rutherford-Appleton Laboratory, Chilton, UK
The SERP/STP Coriolis spacecraft at Vanden-berg prior to flight.
The SMEI baffles are circled. The large NRL radiometer Windsat is on the top of the spacecraft.
The Solar Mass Ejection Imager (SMEI) instrument on board the Coriolis spacecraft, now halfway through its 6th year in orbit, operates well to measure Thomson-scattering brightness from solar wind electrons from three sensors on the spacecraft (the sensor baffles are circled in red).

31. 1 gigabyte/day; now ~4 terabytes
Jackson, B.V., et al., 2004, Solar Phys., 225, 177
Launch 6 January 2003
Data!! Lots of Data!!
1 gigabyte/day; now ~4 terabytes
 Sun C1 C2 C3
Sun | V
SMEI data come in the form of 3 x 60 degree 4-second images over that cover nearly the whole sky from its 840 km Sun-synchronous terminator orbit. It is a “popular orbit” and many other spacecraft can be observed orbiting in the vicinity of Coriolis. Camera 3 views closest the Sun, Camera 1 farthest.
Simultaneous images from the three SMEI cameras.

32. Frame Composite for Aitoff Map Blue = Cam3; Green = Cam2; Red = Cam1
Jackson, B.V., et al., 2008, J. Geophys. Res., 113, A00A15, doi: /2008JA013224
Frame Composite for Aitoff Map
Blue = Cam3; Green = Cam2; Red = Cam1
This shows how images from the three cameras are placed together to form a mosaic map of the whole sky around the Earth (October time period shown).
D290; 17 October 2003

33. SMEI first light composite image
Jackson, B.V., et al., 2004, Solar Phys., 225, 177
SMEI first light composite image
Composite all-sky map 2 Feb 2003 from the three SMEI cameras.
A SMEI first light sun-centered Hammer-Aitoff sky map showing the Milky way, and outages near the Sun where the instrument either does not look or Camera 3 is shuttered (near the sun) to avoid saturation by sunlight. The jagged dark area to the northeast of the Sun is an outage caused by high–energy particle hits on the CCD cameras.

34. Brightness fall-off with distance
Jackson, B.V., et al., 2004, Solar Phys., 225, 177
Brightness fall-off with distance
The Thomson–scattering signal measured is a very small component of the night sky – approximately 5 x the brightness of the solar disk at 90 degrees from the Sun. Competing sources of night-sky light are shown.
 A very tiny signal

35. 27-28 May 2003 CME events brightness time series
Jackson, B.V., et al., 2008, J. Geophys Res., 113, A00A15, doi: /2008JA013224
27-28 May 2003 CME events brightness time series
for select sky sidereal locations
With all contaminant signals eliminated, SMEI brightness is shown with a long-term temporal base removed.
Data points are obtained on each SMEI orbit every 102-minutes, and the data here show a CME that has passed the Earth and is measured in situ.
(1 S10 = 0.46 ± 0.02 ADU)
With all contaminant signals eliminated, SMEI brightness is shown with a long-term temporal base removed. Data points are obtained on each SMEI orbit every 102-minutes in camera analogue to digital units (ADU), and the data here show a CME that has passed the Earth and that is also measured in situ. (We have calibrated SMEI: 1 S10 = 0.46 ± 0.02 ADU)

36. Heliospheric 3D reconstruction
Jackson, B.V., et al., 2008, Adv. in Geosciences, 21, 339
Thomson-scattering
Heliospheric D reconstruction
30º
LOS Weighting
60º
Line of sight “crossed” components on a reference surface. Projections on the reference surface are shown. These weighted components are inverted to provide the time-dependent tomographic reconstruction.
90º

37. Jackson, B. V. , et al. , 2008, J. Geophys Res. , 113, A00A15, doi:10
Jackson, B.V., et al., 2008, J. Geophys Res., 113, A00A15, doi: /2008JA013224
2003 May CME events
SMEI density 3D reconstruction of the May 2003 halo CMEs as viewed from 30º above the ecliptic plane about 30º west of the Sun-Earth line.
SMEI density (remote observer view) of the May 2003 halo CMEs
LASCO C3

38. 27-28 May 2003 CME event period 12-hour cadence, 7º x 7º lat, long
Jackson, B.V., et al., 2008, J. Geophys Res., 113, A00A15, doi: /2008JA013224
27-28 May 2003 CME event period
12-hour cadence, 7º x 7º lat, long
SMEI proton density reconstruction for the May 2003 halo CME sequence. Reconstructed and Wind in-situ densities are compared over one Carrington rotation.

39. 27-28 May 2003 CME event period 12-hour cadence, 7º x 7º lat, long
Jackson, B.V., et al., 2008, J. Geophys Res., 113, A00A15, doi: /2008JA013224
27-28 May 2003 CME event period
12-hour cadence, 7º x 7º lat, long
SMEI proton density reconstruction for the May 2003 halo CME sequence. Reconstructed and Wind in-situ densities are compared over one Carrington rotation.

40. Jackson, B. V. , et al. , 2008, J. Geophys Res. , 113, A00A15, doi:10
Jackson, B.V., et al., 2008, J. Geophys Res., 113, A00A15, doi: /2008JA013224
27-28 May 2003 CME event period
Full SMEI data set, 6-hour cadence, 3º x 3º lat, long
SMEI proton density reconstruction for the May 2003 halo CME sequence. Reconstructed and ACE L2 in-situ densities are compared over one Carrington rotation.

41. Summary:
a) IPS allows derivation of global velocity, and through conversion of g-level to density – global densities, at low resolution from STELab data, including for CMEs.
b) SMEI allows derivation of global densities including that from CMEs at high spatial and temporal resolution using Thomson-scattering brightness.
c) The IPS analysis run in near real-time allows a low- resolution forecast of velocity and density all the time at the inner planets – right now!
Wish List – higher resolution, dedicated calibrated systems, greater Earth longitude coverage or a space- based system. A breakthrough to determine magnetic field remotely. More resources! $$$, ¥¥¥, NT$
I hope this is self-explanatory.