1. EXPLANATIONS FOR ANOMALOUS experience

2. Learning objectives
Explain the role of coincidence
and probability judgements in
anomalous experience
magical thinking

3. Probability misjudgement and coincidence
There is a tendency to underestimate the probability of some things happening.

4. The Law of truly large numbers
Given the number of people in the population, I it is likely that some of them will experience something unusual e.g. a dream coming true
It would be strange if this didn’t happen.

5. Readiness to spot the coincidence
We are more likely to remember occasions when something coincides and forget the greater number of occasions when they don’t..

6. Probability misjudgement
The probability of a coincidence e.g. you are thinking of a friend and they ring you, is far greater than people realise. Blackmore and Troscianko (1985) found that individuals who make poor probability judgements are more likely to suggest that their experiences are psychic.

7. Flip a coin ten times
Which sequence is more likely by chance? Series 1. HHHHHHHHHH Series 2. HTHTHTHTHTHT Series 3. HHTHHHTTTHH

8. Susan Blackmore
There is someone called Jack in my family.
I have a scar on my left knee.
Last night I dreamed of someone I haven’t seen for years.
I travel regularly in a white car.
I once broke my arm
My back is giving me pain at the moment.
I am one of three children.
I own a CD of Handel’s Water music.
I have a cat.
I have been to France in the past year.

9. COGNITIVE DEFICIT
CONSIDERABLE EVIDENCE THAT BELIEF IN THE PARANORMAL IS HIGHER IN PEOPLE WITH SOME SORT OF COGNITIVE DEFICIT. BUT, FINDINGS ARE MIXED . THE MOST RELIABLE FINDINGS ARE ION SYLLOGISTIC REASONING TASKS (E.G. WIERZERBIKI (1985)

10. Syllogistic reasoning
Conclusions are drawn which logically follow on from other statements. If this psychic is genuine they will be able to describe my personality accurately. This psychic can describe my personality accurately. Therefore, this psychic is genuine.

11. Can you see the picture?
There is an animal in the following slide, but not everyone will see it… Can you?

12. MAGICAL THINKING

13. MAGICAL THINKING
Magical thinking is a clinical term used to describe a wide variety of nonscientific and sometimes irrational beliefs. These beliefs are generally centred on correlations between events.
For example, a belief in the power of spells or rituals could be considered magical thinking.