1. Israel and the Palestinians: Challenges and Opportunities
Teleconference March 2009

2. Israel’s Palestinian Dilemmas
IL Leaves: Security Threat
IL Stays: Political Threat
Militarized PL State
Demographic Burden
Foreign forces using PL
Erosion of 2SS
Terrorism and Rocket fire
Logic of Implosion
Logic: Stay
Logic: Leave

3. War against Hamas: Was Operation Cast Lead a Corrective Experience?
Hamas Infrastructure Destroyed
Hamas Leadership Weakened
Hundreds of Terrorists Killed
January 2009
Erosion of Quartet 3 Demands
Continuing Rocket Fire
Gilad Shalit in Captivity
Int’l Pressure to Open Crossings
March 2009
Why cant Israel Win?

4. The Dilemmas Hamas poses to Israel
No moderate alternative
Toppling Hamas
Fear of renewed IL responsibility
Weakens Palestinian Address
Undermines Abbas’ position
Hudna with Hamas
Erodes int’l boycott on Hamas
Rockets on Tel Aviv later?
No Organizing Idea vs. Hamas 4

5. Political Process: Permanent Status or Statebuilding?
Negotiations over PSA
(Package Approach)
Statebuilding
‘All or Nothing’ Dynamic
Strengthen PL Address
First PSA, then State
First State, then PSA
Moment of Truth Dangerous: Statebuilding Essential

6. Structural Obstacles to PSA
Palestinian Constitutional Crisis
Israeli Institutional Weakness
No ZOPA
Permanent Status Agreement
PSA currently Unlikely

7. Statebuilding Gestures Institutions and Capacity Building
Strengthening the moderate factions
Institutions and Capacity Building
Strengthening PA institutions and capacities within existing agreements
Upgrading the PA: Statebuilding beyond existing agreements
Upgrading the PA

8. Upgrading the PA Territory Security Economic Political Sovereign State
Current PA
Customs
Palestinian Currency
Embassies
UN / WTO Membership
Sept 2000 Lines
Strengthening PA
Forces
Area B
Territory
Security
Economic
Political

9. The Catch 22 of a PL Unity Govt.
Unity Government
No Agreement
Yes Address
Ramallah-Based Government
Yes Agreement
No Address

10. Consequences of Failure The Erosion / Collapse of the Two State Solution
Collapse of PA
IL blamed in Int’l Community
Return to ‘Resistance’
Towards Pariah Status
Palestinian Inversion to 2SS
Int’l Inversion to 2SS

11. What Could break the Ice?
Imposing the “Clinton Ideas”
“Economic Peace” + Political Component
NATANZ for NATAN
(Aluf Benn)