1. Seatrade TANKER INDUSTRY Conference
Singapore
28 April 2010
Peter M Swift,
MD INTERTANKO

2. Oil price and freight rate – real and nominal
$ per barrel

3. Accidental oil pollution from tankers
1000 ts spilt
1000 bn tonne miles trade
Based on ITOPF/Fearnleys

4. Tanker Incidents and accidental pollution
Number incidents
‘0000 ts pollution
Based on data from LMIU, ITOPF + others

5. Tanker incidents by cause 2009
Based on data from ITOPF

6. Tanker hull & machinery incidents
Number incidents
Year
<10 years
10-24 years
>25 years
Total
Average age
2002 4 3 15 22
17.5
2003 8 14
18.4
2004 2 7 11
18.0
2005 9 5 20 34
17.6
2006 12 17 32
14.3
2007 25 48
13.2
2008 10 24 59
15.6
2009 13 53
16.7
2010* 6 89 45
143
287
2010 is for 110 days
Based on data from LMIU, ITOPF + others

7. Investment in New Tonnage - Move to Double Hulls
More than USD 500 billion invested since 2000 with the result that ~95% of tanker fleet* double hulled by end 2010
* over 10,000 dwt

8. Average age tanker fleet above 10,000 dwt
Years
Based on LRFairplay

9. SH trading beyond 2010 ? Bahamas Yes Australia No Barbados Yes
Flag/Port State positions re MARPOL 13G trading up to the age of 25 years
Bahamas Yes
Barbados Yes
Liberia Yes
Marshall Isl. Yes
Panama Flag Yes
Japan Yes
Singapore Yes
India Yes
Hong Kong Yes**
(** Max. 20 years old)
Australia No
China No
EU No
Mexico No
Romania No
S Korea No*
Philippines No*
UAE No*
(*No official note
sent to IMO yet)
Notes
1. Naturally understands the concerns associated with and threats posed by oil transportation, with the reminder that the accidental pollution and incident records have shown very considerable and sustained improvements for more than 10 years.
2. Stresses the imperative that all involved maintain strict adherence to international (maritime) law and review processes.
3. Advocates the conducting and completion of an impartial, comprehensive accident investigation. Stresses the necessity, before any new measures are proposed or introduced, for rigorous analysis and understanding of the risks and consequences involved based on sound technical grounds, and where appropriate encourages a full impact analysis of each such measure.
4. As a matter of principle, rejects unilateral and/or regional, ill-considered, (and frequently expeditious/opportunistic and reactionary) measures.
5. Reminds that shipowners receive only a very small proportion of the economic benefit from oil supply and distribution, and that the principal beneficiaries in this value chain are oil companies and traders.
United States N/A
(OPA90)

10. Shipbuilding output and forecast
m cgt
In general the CO2 emission has developed in line with energy consumption, which again has developed according to the population the growth in the population.
Over the last years oil consumption has developed stronger that the population growth because the strong economic growth in large countries such as Russia, India and in particular China .
Cos emission has also developed stronger than energy consumption because coal increased its part of energy consumption.
The strong growth in seaborne trade can firstly be attributed to the strong import to China of raw materials and the strong growth in finished good from China to Europe and the US.
Source: Worldyards/INTERTANKO Aug 09

11. Shipyard output potential - surplus
Implications ?
Distressed sales / lower prices
Quality and standards maintained or weakened
Pressure on suppliers and sub-contractors
Greater customer focus & customisation
and any government interventions ?

12. Lower Freight Rates & Fleet surpluses - All sectors
Implications ?
Challenge to maintain quality and standards, - e.g. maintenance, training
Challenge to meet the issues of the day – e.g. including environmental challenges
Potentially made even worse if new ships are of low standard ?

13. Working together !
GHG Studies, e.g. abatement measures, virtual arrival
Piracy
Tripartite – Builders/Class
HNS Convention
Safety issues, e.g. Lifeboats, Terminals, MSDS, Mercury in crudes

14. For more information, please visit:
Thank you
For more information, please visit:
London, Oslo. Washington, Singapore and Brussels

15. Seatrade TANKER INDUSTRY Conference
Singapore
28 April 2010
Peter M Swift,
MD INTERTANKO

16. VLCCs* deliveries and deletions
Number
In general the CO2 emission has developed in line with energy consumption, which again has developed according to the population the growth in the population.
Over the last years oil consumption has developed stronger that the population growth because the strong economic growth in large countries such as Russia, India and in particular China .
Cos emission has also developed stronger than energy consumption because coal increased its part of energy consumption.
The strong growth in seaborne trade can firstly be attributed to the strong import to China of raw materials and the strong growth in finished good from China to Europe and the US.
1966 Idemitsu Maru, the first VLCC delivered by IHI, 206,000 dwt
1976 Seawise Giant, the largest tanker delivered by Sumitomo H.I , 564,650 dwt
1974 the largest number of VLCCs delivered, 124
1982 only one VLCC was delivered
*Here VLCCs include all tankers above 200,000 dwt
** trading include short term storage, not lay-up or long term storage
Source: INTERTANKO , LR Fairplay current fleet, Clarkson deliveries

17. Average age tanker fleet above 10,000 dwt
Years
Based on LRFairplay

18. Tanker Contracting 1996-2010 Source: Clarksons, April 2010 10 20 30 4010 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
million deadweight
Handy MR
Panamax
Aframax
Suezmax
VLCC
Source: Clarksons, April 2010

19. Newbuilding Tanker Prices30 60 90
120
150
180
Jan-76
Jan-78
Jan-80
Jan-82
Jan-84
Jan-86
Jan-88
Jan-90
Jan-92
Jan-94
Jan-96
Jan-98
Jan-00
Jan-02
Jan-04
Jan-06
Jan-08
Jan-10
$ million
VLCC
Suezmax
Aframax
Panamax
MR Product
Source: Clarksons, April 2010

20. Fleet Growth *Includes slippage, cancellation and removal ideas-5 5 10 15 20
VLCC
Smax
Amax
Pmax MR
Handy
% change y-o-y
2009
2010
2011
*Includes slippage, cancellation and removal ideas
Source: Clarksons, April 2010

21. Tanker Age Profile Source: Clarksons, April 2010 500 400 300 200 100
100
200
300
400
500
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
no of vessels
Handy MR
Panamax
Aframax
Suezmax
VLCC
Source: Clarksons, April 2010

22. Tanker Fleet Comparisons12 6 5 9 19 38 33 21 29 13 20 69 68 73 75 58 10 30 40 50 60 70 80
VLCC
Suezmax
Aframax
Panamax MR
Handy
percentage of exisiting fleet
non-double hull
On Order
Built since 2000
Source: Clarksons, April 2010

23. Single Hull – Trading Status0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
VLCC
Suezmax
Aframax
Panamax MR
Handy
Total
Fleet
% of single hull fleet
Storage%
Inactive%
Domestic
Trading%
Normal
Source: Clarksons, April 2010 (datasource: Clarksons/LLI)

24. For more information, please visit:
Thank you
For more information, please visit:
London, Oslo. Washington, Singapore and Brussels