1. GEO 3 Scenarios

3. Purpose Complement a 30-year retrospective on the environment
Future developments are viewed with an eye toward environmental implications
Need to demonstrate Global-Regional integration in process and content
Need to contribute to formulation of environmentally relevant policy

4. Process First UNEP Internal GEO-3 Meeting: February 2000
GEO-3 First Production Meeting: April 2000
Expert Group Meeting: June 2000
Core Scenario Group Meeting: July 2000
Working Meeting: Cambridge: September 2000
Regional Meetings October-November 2000 Asia & Pacific, Africa, Europe, North America, Latin America & Caribbean, West Asia, Polar
First Draft January 2001
Second Draft and Initial Quantification October 2001
Expert Group Meeting: November 2001
Final Draft: March 2002
Launch: 22 May 2002

5. Demography
Economy
Society
Culture
Technology
Governance
Environment

7. Markets First
Security First
Policy First
Sustainability First

8. Markets First

9. Markets First is a world in which market driven developments converge on the values and expectations that prevail in industrialised countries

11. Assumptions about Driving Forces
Demography gradual completion of demographic transition in most regions
Economy fairly stable growth rates
Society individual ethos dominates
Culture increasingly uniform; consumption-oriented
Technology rapid advances, but slightly outpaced by activity growth
Governance mix of top-down and bottom-up; reactive outside of economic arena; often rhetorical; degree of implementation varies; mixed results
Environment robust within limits

12. Policy First

13. Policy First is a world in which concerted action on environment and social issues occurs through incremental policy adjustments

15. Assumptions about Driving Forces
Demography accelerated completion of demographic transition in most regions
Economy cautious growth balanced by social and environmental concerns
Society balance between individual and community ethos
Culture continues to be consumption-oriented, but tempered; respect for diversity
Technology targeted technological improvements; slightly outpaces activity growth
Governance top-down; proactive in intent; slow in implementation; mixed results
Environment robust within limits

16. Security First

17. Security First is a world of fragmentation, where inequality and conflict prevail, brought about by socio-economic and environmental stresses

19. Assumptions about Driving Forces
Demography slow completion of demographic transition combined with stagnation or reversal of life expectancy among some groups
Economy laissez-faire approach to economic activity; increasingly disrupted
Society individual ethos dominates
Culture increasingly uniform within walls; fragmented and diverse outside
Technology fragmented technological advance; well behind growth in activity
Governance little at first; reactive; when applied, top-down and heavy handed
Environment a number of environmental systems exhibit increased fragility

20. Sustainability First

21. Sustainability First is a world in which a new development paradigm emerges in response to the challenge of sustainability, supported by new values and institutions

23. Assumptions about Driving Forces
Demography greatly accelerated completion of demographic transition in most regions
Economy new patterns of economic activity; old measures inadequate to represent changes
Society community ethos dominates, but with full flowering of individual potential
Culture shift from consumption to satificing-orientation; respect for diversity
Technology targeted technological advances; well ahead of activity changes
Governance bottom-up dominates; proactive in intent and implementation; strong results
Environment robust within limits

25. Participating Groups
AIM (Asian Pacific Integrated Model) National Institute for Environmental Studies (NIES) and Kyoto University
GLOBIO (Global methodology for mapping human impacts on the biosphere) Norwegian Institute for Nature Research (NINA), UNEP-GRID-Arendal, UNEP-WCMC and UNEP/DEWA
IMAGE 2.2 (Integrated Model to Assess the Global Environment) RIVM
PoleStar Stockholm Environment Institute (SEI), Boston Center
WaterGAP 2.1 (Water — Global Assessment and Prognosis) Center for Environmental Systems Research (CESR)

32. LESSON ONE Contrasting yet plausible stories can be told for how the world and its regions will develop in the next 30 years; each has fundamentally different implications for the environment.
LESSON TWO There can be significant delays between human actions, including policy decisions, and associated impacts on the environment, specifically: §      much of the environmental change that will occur over the next 30 years has already been set in motion by past and current actions §      many of the effects of environmentally-relevant policies put into place over the next 30 years will not be apparent until long afterwards
LESSON THREE Achieving widely agreed environmental and social goals will require dramatic and coordinated action starting now and continuing for a number of years. Steps must include policies based on prevention and adaptation.

33. LESSON FOUR Important linkages exist between different environmental issues and between environmental and broader social issues. It follows that: §      policy can be made more effective by looking for synergies or ‘co-benefits’ §      care must be taken to avoid conflicts between policies  
LESSON FIVE The establishment of strong institutions for environmental governance is a prerequisite for almost all other policies.
LESSON SIX Ensuring timely access to accurate information is a robust policy, as it: §      allows for early warning of environmental problems §      can stimulate voluntary action by business and industry §      can support formal and informal market-based mechanisms that promote good environmental conduct

34. LESSON SEVEN Not all policy instruments are appropriate for all situations.
LESSON EIGHT The achievement of environmental goals will require decisive action, will encounter unforeseen eventualities, and will not happen overnight. Fortunately or unfortunately, much of the success or failure of this endeavour is in our hands.