1. NMME Program Development
Jin Huang
Chief, Earth System Science and Modeling (ESSM) Division
NOAA Climate Program Office
A community effort attributing to
the NMME Team, CTB, NCEP, CPO/MAPP, DOE, NASA, NSF, Canada, and Sandy Supplemental Fund
September 13, 2017
NMME/SubX Workshop

2. Outline
History
Current Status
Beyond 2018?

6. Realtime Experimental NMME System
The two NMME Workshops
Established Collaboration
Developed the NMME Protocol
Decided to test a distributed system
Became Real-Time in August 2011
Adhering to NOAA Operational Schedule
Distributing data (Hindcast and Forecast Data) to NOAA operation and the community
Funded as CPO MAPP-CTB research project with contributions from NSF, DOE and NASA (FY11; FY12-13) and Sandy Supplemental Fund.
A MAPP-CTB priority in CPO FY12 FFO
NMME Partners
University of Miami
COLA
NCAR
IRI
U of Colorado – CIRES
NASA – GMAO
NOAA/NCEP
NOAA/GFDL
Princeton University
Canada
Multi-Institutional Support

7. Current Status: Operational NMME System
Became operational in Sept. 2015
The MAPP-CTB post-project review for NMME in Sept. 2014
MOU between NCEP and participating modeling centers signed for Sept Aug. 2018
Continuing to provide multi-model numerical guidance to NCEP/CPC operational forecasters
Model upgrade during the operational period
GFDL: CM2.1 => FLOR
NCAR-CCSM3 => CCSM4
New: NCAR-CESM1

8. Current Status: Rapid Data Availability to the Public
CPC NMME page: real-time forecast and verification
IRI data library support and monthly reforecast data
NCAR ESG Node: Phase-II daily data
Real-time and operational (2011 – present) daily data (limited 13 fields; distribution through NCEI is in progress)

9. Current Status: Ongoing Prediction Research
Real-time NMME prediction: Motivating research,
for example:
Warm ENSO Predictions of vs
Cold ENSO Phase
Are Historical and Real-Time Skill Measures Comparable
CPO MAPP continuous support to NMME and S2S research including
FY15 one-year mini projects on NMME evaluation and application
FY16 S2S prediction research projects (S2S Task Force)
FY16 Sub-seasonal MME experiment (SubX)

10. What’re the Needs and Strategy for NMME beyond 2018?
The MOU for operational NMME will expire in September 2018.
What are the needs and strategy to sustain NMME beyond 2018?
which models? Supported by whom?
Is the current data dissemination strategy working?
What are the research needs to improve NMME?
What’s the mechanism to continuously upgrade the models?
Can NMME go beyond MME of opportunities?
Is it a good idea to merge NMME and SubX research components?
What is the strategy to address prediction issues faced in NMME operations? for example,
Why did all the models do poorly in the west coast US rainfall during the previous warm event?
Is it a model resolution problem? model physics?
Is the west coast rainfall predictable?