1. Pictures taken by: João
Yield gaps of maize: why are they important and how does IMAGINE address them
Martin van Ittersum, Michiel van Dijk, Pytrik Reidsma, Roel Jongeneel and other members of project team
Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, April 27, 2017
PR: I suggest to have the names of Kindie and Marloes on top, and others added below
Pictures taken by: João

2. Outline Can sub-Saharan Africa and Ethiopia feed itself?
Developments and Policies in Ethiopia
The IMAGINE project
The IMAGINE Yield gap framework

3. Martin van Ittersum, Lenny van Bussel – Plant Production Systems group
Patricio Grassini, Ken Cassman – University of Nebraska-Lincoln
GYGA team, including ten country agronomists from SSA
Can sub-Saharan Africa feed itself? and Ethiopa? Martin van Ittersum, Lenny van Bussel – Plant Production Systems group Patricio Grassini, Ken Cassman – University of Nebraska-Lincoln Samuel Adjei-Nsiah - IITA, Kindie Tesfaye – CIMMYT GYGA team, including ten country agronomists from SSA Van Ittersum et al., PNAS

4. Current self-sufficiency ratios cereals - 2010
Source: FAOstat

5. Current self-sufficiency cereals SSA - 2010
Source: IMPACT model

6. Growth in population 2050
From 0.45 to 1.2 billion (2.6 times)

7. Growth in population and cereal demand - 2050
A factor 3.4 increase!

8. How to increase cereal production
Increase on existing agricultural land
Irrigation and multiple crops per year
Expansion of agricultural land

9. Production-ecological principles & practice
Breeding and bio-
Techno-
logy
Defining factors
CO2
radiation
temperature
crop genetics
potential
production
Limiting factors
water
nutrients
(N,P,K)
limited
production
Reducing factors
weeds
pests
diseases
pollutants
actual
production
yield
increasing
measures
yield gap
yield
protecting
measures
yield level
PRODUCTION SITUATION
Van Ittersum and Rabbinge, 1997
Slide: Harrie Lovenstein

10. Yield gaps
Photo: Ken Gillerr

11. Global Yield Gap Atlas www.yieldgap.org
With University of Nebraska, ICRISAT, AfricaRice, CIMMYT and many regional and national partners
Major food crops in the world
Global protocol with local application
Local data and evaluation
Strong agronomic foundation
Co-financed by Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation

12. 02/08/2018

13. 02/08/2018

14. Cereal self-sufficiency - 2050

15. Cereal self-sufficiency - 2050

16. Ethiopia
Agriculture production has recorded a remarkable growth between 2004 and 2014, on average by 7.6 percent per year (Bachewe et al., 2015)

17. Actual maize yields in Ethiopia

18. Required increase maize yields - Ethiopia

19. Policy context Ethiopia (general)
Ethiopia has set an ambitious growth and transformation plan GTPII ( ) with focus on poverty reduction and growing the agricultural sector
Agriculture recognized as a main pillar
Development activities undertaken by the smallholder farmers and pastoralists
Gradual shift in emphasis towards high value crops and livestock production
complemented by the establishment of a market system that benefits farmers and non-farm rural actors
Expanding the development of small and medium scale agro based manufacturing enterprises

20. Policy context Ethiopia (crop production)
Within GTP there are currently several mega programs including: 1) Agricultural Growth Program (AGP), 2) Sustainable Land Management Project (SLMP), 3) Food Security Program (FSP), and 4) the Pastoral Community Development Project (PCDP).
Focus on improving the production and productivity of the sector to enhance domestic agricultural production
Research and extension:
Nine regional agricultural research institutes with a total of some 69 research centers under them.
Concerted government spending in extension has also established nearly 10,000 Farmer Training Centers (FTCs) and trained over 63,000 Development Agents

21. Farm level issues Ethiopia
Ethiopia has a market-oriented policy approach
No policy measures that creates financial incentives (e.g. price support or input price subsidies)
No direct financial services (credit)
But enhancing access to market information
Provision of extension services
Gvt participation in seed and fertilizer markets
Border measure policies (duties and exemptions)
Farm management optimization and strengthening the agronomic knowledge base and its application are crucial to achieve the growth targets

22. Research questions IMAGINE
What is a scientifically sound and applicable generic framework linking agronomic, socio-economic, institutional, infrastructural and policy factors, explaining maize yield gaps in SSA?
What are the main biophysical and farm and crop management factors that help to explain yield gaps in Ethiopia and Ghana?
What are the main infrastructural, institutional, socio-economic and policy factors that explain farm and crop management and consequently yield gaps?
Which policies and farm management options are key for increasing yield performance in Ethiopia and Ghana?

23. Design of IMAGINE Methodology development
Regional and national analyses in Ethiopia and Ghana
Based on:
National surveys
Local surveys
Ethiopia: Adami Tulu, Bako Tibe
Demonstration experiments

24. Five different yield levels to benchmark farmer performance
Yield (tons/ha)
Biophysical maximum production level (climate, CO2, water)
Water-limited. potential
yield
Yield
gap
Best-practice + no economic constraints on inputs
Feasible yield
Economic yield
Best-practice + profit-maximizing
Technical
efficient yield
Best-practice
Actual yield
Observed yield at the plot
Sliva et al., 2017
Van Dijk et al., 2017

25. Policies to close the yield gap(s)
Yield (tons/ha)
Main causes
Policies
Potential yield
Yield
gap
Technology
Yield gap
Agricultural innovation system and broader institutional, technological, economic and social factors
Investment in applied agricultural research and development programs
Feasible yield
Economic
Yield gap
Transaction and transportation costs
Investment in rural roads
Policies to decrease transaction costs
Economic yield
Allocative
Yield gap
Knowledge and financial constraints, risk issues and information asymmetries
Credit & insurance
Expand agro-dealer networks
Support market information
Land tenure systems
Smart input subsidies
Technical
efficient yield
Technical efficiency yield gap
Suboptimal crop management caused by knowledge, skills and information gaps.
Improve extension services
Stimulate knowledge transfer from best practice to average farmers
Actual yield
Sliva et al., 2017
Van Dijk et al., 2017

26. 02/08/2018
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