1. Chris.kavalec@energy.state.ca.us / 916-654-5184
California Energy Demand (CED) 2011 Revised Electricity and Natural Gas Forecast
SMUD
February 7, 2012
Chris Kavalec Demand Analysis Office Electricity Supply Analysis Division /

2. SMUD Electricity Sales
Average annual growth of 1.68%, 1.32%, and 1.11% from in the high, mid, and low scenarios, respectively, compared to 1.29% in the 2009 IEPR forecast (CED 2009)
Lower starting point vs. CED 2009
Lower growth rates in all three cases versus preliminary
Econometric sales forecast lower in all 3 cases (1.9% lower in mid case in 2022)

3. SMUD Electricity Sales: CED 2011 Revised vs. CED 2009

4. SMUD Electricity Sales: CED 2011 Revised vs
SMUD Electricity Sales: CED 2011 Revised vs. CED 2011 Preliminary (Mid Case)

5. SMUD Electricity Sales: CED 2011 Revised vs
SMUD Electricity Sales: CED 2011 Revised vs. Econometric Forecast (Mid Case)

6. SMUD Peak Demand
Average annual growth of 1.93%, 1.52%, and 0.99% from in the high, mid, and low scenarios, respectively, compared to 1.20% in the 2009 IEPR forecast (CED 2009)
Lower starting point vs. CED 2009
Higher in all mid and high cases vs. preliminary 2011 forecast (by 1 percent in mid case in 2022)
Econometric forecast higher in all three cases (3.1% higher in mid case in 2022)

7. SMUD Peak Demand: CED 2011 Revised vs. CED 2009

8. SMUD Peak Demand: CED 2011 Revised vs. CED 2011 Preliminary (Mid Case)

9. SMUD Peak Demand: CED 2011 Revised vs. Econometric Forecast (Mid Case)

10. SMUD TV Standards Savings

11. SMUD Electric Vehicles

12. SMUD Self-Generation Peak Impacts