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Risk, uncertainty and ignorance in technological design

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Presentation on theme: "Risk, uncertainty and ignorance in technological design"— Presentation transcript:

1 Risk, uncertainty and ignorance in technological design
Introduction to Innovation Sebastiaan van Delft

2 Why is this important? Faced with risk-analysis with every (new) technology or innovation

3 Risk Colloquial meaning Scientific meaning

4 Uncertainty and ignorance
Donald Rumsfeld: Distinction between risk and uncertainty Objective probability Subjective probability Risk Uncertainty Ignorance Known Unknown

5 How to deal with it? Risk Risk-analysis; cost-benefit analysis
Maximizing expected utility Ignorance Uncertainty Precautionary approach

6 Precautionary approach
Case nuclear power plant

7 Precautionary approach
Case GMO’s

8 How to decide? Discussion Interdisciplinary approach

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