1. Babcock-Leighton Dynamo Theory and Solar Cycle #24
Kenneth Schatten
Ai-solutions

2. OUTLINE SA PRED: FEEL+ TO PHYS. MODELS: DIKPATI +.
PRECURSORS PREDS.: GEOMAGNETIC & SOLAR
BABCOCK – LEIGHTON DYNAMO
THE SUN’S POLAR FIELD
PREDICTION FOR CYCLE #24
?s FOR MODELS PREDICTING LARGE CYCLE#24
SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS

3. SOLAR ACTIVITY

4. Geomagnetic Precursors, Kane

5. Solar Precursors : Brief Theory
General dynamo theory – DISK DYNAMO
Solar Babcock-Leighton model
Solar Dynamo Method - Magnetic fields at the Sun’s Poles are the precursors for future active region fields.
Near Solar Minimum, the Polar field of the Sun extends past the Earth. This affects geomagnetic activity: hence geomag precursors may serve to predict the Sun’s activity.

6. General Dynamo Theory –DISK DYNAMO (MHD – FIELDS AMPLIFY PRE-EXISTING FIELD)

7. Babcock-Leighton model

9. Traditional Solar Physics
Hale’s Laws
Spoerer Butterfly Diagram
Joy’s Law

10. How the Sun ‘Broadcasts’ the State of its Internal Mag. Field
2 STEPS:
STEP 1: Polar field at solar minimum acts as a precursor for the toroidal field (active regions).

11. How the Sun ‘Broadcasts’ the State of its Internal Mag. Field
STEP 2:
Near solar min., the solar wind extends the polar field into the interplanetary field. When it dips low enough to reach the ecliptic it can affect geomag. activity. This allows it to serve as a precursor for next cycle’s activity.
Shown are the computed field lines on top of structure of the eclipse of Nov. 12, 1966.
Schatten, K.H., “Current Sheet Magnetic Model for the Solar Corona," Cosmic Electrodynamics, 11, 4, Asilomar Conference on the Solar Wind, (1971).

12. The Sun’s Polar Field
We often use a “SODA (Solar Dynamo Amplitude) Index, which incorporates the Sun’s Toroidal and Poloidal Fields, but to reduce complexity are showing the polar fields alone, as these have less “active region noise.”

14. F10.7 Observations and Predictions

16. Where did the Sun’s Field go?
Present Coronal Holes
‘Normal’ Polar Coronal Holes at Solar Minimum
Idealized Model of “Typical” Solar Minimum Corona
Yohkoh Soft X-ray Image Aug
2005
October, 1996 Coronal Hole Drawing,
Karen Harvey, using Kitt Peak He line
April, May, 2005 STAR SOHO/MDI Coronal Hole Map

17. ?s FOR MODELS PREDICTING LARGE CYCLE #24
DIKPATI + MODEL: FEEL + TOWARDS PHYS. MODELS, BUT SOME ?s ARISE:1) DATA ANALYSIS ? ,2) WHY SHOULD FLOW FOLLOW THEIR PARTICULAR PATTERN?
WHAT EXPLAINS THE OBSERVED DOWNTURN IN THE SUN’S POLAR FIELD FOR THE LAST SEVERAL YEARS?
THE POLAR FIELD & ITS PROXIES (e.g. POLAR FACULAE) CORRELATE WELL WITH THE NEXT CYCLE’S ACTIVITY. WHAT EXPLAINS THIS (IF NOT THE B-L MODEL)?

18. SUMMARY/CONCLUSIONS BABCOCK-LEIGHTON DYNAMO THEORY
POLAR FIELD (OR PROXY) IS PRECURSOR FOR NEXT CYCLE’S ACTIVITY
CURRENTLY POLAR FIELD IS LOW
THEREFORE, IF B-L THEORY & OUR INTERPRETATION OF IT IS RIGHT,
CYCLE #24 WILL BE LOW