1. On behalf of the Accelerator Project Phase II Team
Accelerator and source division (ASD) mission
Risk Assessment for the ESRF-EBS
Dieter Einfeld
On behalf of the Accelerator Project Phase II Team
Risk Assessment, Alert 2016, Trieste, 15th September 2016, D.Einfeld

2. Contents of presentation
Accelerator and source division (ASD) mission
Outline
The ESRF – EBS Project
Introduction to Risk Management
The phases and areas of the project
Planning Risks
Risk Management for the WP’s
Conclusion
Risk Assessment, Alert 2016, Trieste, 15th September 2016, D.Einfeld

3. The ESRF Side
Risk Assessment, Alert 2016, Trieste, 15th September 2016, D.Einfeld

4. New lattice vs present esrf lattice
Present ESRF lattice Double Bend Achromat = (2 dipoles + 15 quad. sext.) per cell ID length = 5 m (standard) / 6m / 7m
ESRF EBS lattice Hybrid 7 Bend Achromat = (4 dipoles + 3 dipoles-quad + 24 quad., sext., oct.) per cell ID length = 5 m
Dipole
Dipole
present
future
Dipole
Dipole
Dipole
Dipoles-quadrupoles
Dipole
31 magnets per cell instead of 17 currently
Free space between magnets (total for one cell): 3.4m instead of 8m today !!
ESRF-EBS Progress Report, Trieste, 14th September, D.Einfeld

5. The goal is to assembly 1 cell per week
Assembly Task
1 cell of the storage ring ESRF-EBS
Overall we have 32 cells with 4 girders per ring
Girder 2
DQ2&CH7
Girder 3
Girder 4
Girder 1
The task of the girder assembly is to bring together all the different components of one girder to one unit.
The goal is to assembly 1 cell per week
ESRF-EBS Progress Report, Trieste, 14th September, D.Einfeld

6. ESRF-EBS Organization Accelerator Project Office
UP PI: Preparing the UP Phase II
APO
Accelerator Project Office
APS
ESRF-EBS Progress Report, Trieste, 14th September, D.Einfeld

7. Work packages for the Upgrade
UP PI: Preparing the UP Phase II
ESRF-EBS Progress Report, Trieste, 14th September, D.Einfeld

8. Master Plan and Major Milestones
EBS master plan ( )
Master Plan and Major Milestones
01/10/2017 – Start of assembly phase
17/12/2018 – Start of shutdown
– Start of dismantling phase
18/03/2019 – End of dismantling phase
– Start of installation phase
January 2017-June 2018 – Delivery of components
04/11/2019 – End installation phase
Mark periods/phases: Design/procurement, Pre-assembly, dismantling, installation
02/12/2019 – Start of storage ring commissioning phase_
09/01/2020 – Start of beamline commissioning phase
May-July 2020 – Friendly Users_
25/08/2020 – Start of USM
ESRF-EBS Progress Report, Trieste, 14th September, D.Einfeld

9. Time Schedule for Dismantling and Installation
1st April 2018
18th Nov. 2018
1st June 2018
2nd Dec. 2018
ESRF-EBS Progress Report, Trieste, 14th September, D.Einfeld

10. Time Schedule: Delivery Time and Assembly
For the magnets we have a buffer between delivery and assembly of months
Other projects have experienced delays of 6 months for vacuum chambers and magnets, ie. a delay of 25% (on a 2-year period). We have only 12-15% of buffer!
3rd MAC MEETING – Risk Management - D. Einfeld

11. Time Schedule: Delivery Time and Assembly
For the vacuum chambers we have a buffer between delivery and assembly of months
3rd MAC MEETING – Risk Management - D. Einfeld

12. Time Schedule: Delivery Time and Assembly
For the girders we have a buffer between delivery and assembly of months
3rd MAC MEETING – Risk Management - D. Einfeld

13. Risk Management
Risk is exposure to the consequences of uncertainty. In a project context, it is the chance of something happening that will have an impact upon objectives. It includes the possibility of loss or gain, or variation from the desired or planned outcome, as a consequence of the uncertainty associated with following a particular course of action. Risk thus has two elements: the likelihood or probability of something happening, and the consequences or impact if it does.
Risk arise because of uncertainty about the future. Risk exposure may arise from the possibility of economic, financial or social loss or gain, physical damage or injury, or delay. It may also be caused by changes in the relationships between parties involved in the supply, ownership, operation and maintenance of assets for public or private purposes.
The term “management” implies that risks are to be treated in an ordered fashion, rather than in a haphazard way.
Risk Assessment, Alert 2016, Trieste, 15th September 2016, D.Einfeld

14. Communicate and control
Introduction
The different steps for the risk management are:
Establish the context - Identify - Analyse - Evaluate and Treat the risk
Communicate and control
Establish the context
Objectives
Stakeholders
Criteria (performances)
Define key elements
Treat the risks
Identify options
Select the best responses
Develop risk treatment plans
Implement
Analyse the risks
Review controls
Likelihoods
Consequences
Level of risks
Identify the risks
What can happen?
How can it happen?
Evaluate the risks
Evaluate risks
Rank risks
Monitor and review
Risk Assessment, Alert 2016, Trieste, 15th September 2016, D.Einfeld

15. Areas and Phases of Risk Management
Risk Management has to be done for the different areas of impact and phases of the ESRF EBS project
Risk Assessment, Alert 2016, Trieste, 15th September 2016, D.Einfeld

16. Accelerator Project Risk Management
The risk management is:
Analysis
Evaluation 
Treat risks
 To be done for all work packages
For all phases of the project:
Design
Procurement
Production
Assembly
Installation
Commissioning
1.) Introduction
The risk management exists of the following steps: a.) Analysis -, b.) Evaluation - and c.) Treat of the risk. This has to be done for the different phases of the project: design -, call for tender- , production-, assembling-, installation – and commissioning phase. Furthermore it has to be done for all work packages.
To minimize the risk of the project a “Machine Advisory Committee (MAC)” has been established to follow up the project and giving advices to possible risks with comments of mitigation. So far the MAC doesn’t see any show stopper or risk for the project.
In order to minimize the risk, the project leader made the decision, to use so called “conventional technologies”. For any components no “new” or “non- proven” technology will be used, this is minimizing the risk too.
The ESRF accelerator complex is running for more as 20 year very successful and a lot of upgrade processes have been done very successfully. Hence the ESRF-staff knows very well and has the expertise to make the right design of the different components.
Risk Assessment, Alert 2016, Trieste, 15th September 2016, D.Einfeld

17. Accelerator Project Risk Management
However, the overall risk is reduced / minimized by:
Machine Advisory Committee (MAC)
Use of conventional technologies
Expertise of ESRF staff
All Synchrotron Light Sources reached there specifications
Most of the Synchrotron Light Sources brought the 1st turn around the machine without any correctors
The commissioning of the machines was done in a short time
1.) Introduction
The risk management exists of the following steps: a.) Analysis -, b.) Evaluation - and c.) Treat of the risk. This has to be done for the different phases of the project: design -, call for tender- , production-, assembling-, installation – and commissioning phase. Furthermore it has to be done for all work packages.
To minimize the risk of the project a “Machine Advisory Committee (MAC)” has been established to follow up the project and giving advices to possible risks with comments of mitigation. So far the MAC doesn’t see any show stopper or risk for the project.
In order to minimize the risk, the project leader made the decision, to use so called “conventional technologies”. For any components no “new” or “non- proven” technology will be used, this is minimizing the risk too.
The ESRF accelerator complex is running for more as 20 year very successful and a lot of upgrade processes have been done very successfully. Hence the ESRF-staff knows very well and has the expertise to make the right design of the different components.
Risk Assessment, Alert 2016, Trieste, 15th September 2016, D.Einfeld

18. Risk Assessment
The risk assessment can be qualified by the PID–Matrix.
Risk Assessment, Alert 2016, Trieste, 15th September 2016, D.Einfeld

19. Risk Assessment according to the “book”
Risk Assessment, Alert 2016, Trieste, 15th September 2016, D.Einfeld

20. Risk Assessment
The risk assessment can be qualified by the PID–Matrix and the Risk-Factor
Risk Assessment, Alert 2016, Trieste, 15th September 2016, D.Einfeld

21. Risk Assessment
The risk factor is given as a function of Likelihood and Impact
: very low
0.05 – 0.40: low
0.40 – 0.70: medium
0.70 – 0.95: high
0.95 – 1.00: very high
Risk Assessment, Alert 2016, Trieste, 15th September 2016, D.Einfeld

22. Introduction: Risk List
To get an overview of the risk for the project, I send an Excel file with some instruction to all work package leaders in order to fill out the following table (see below)
Risk Assessment, Alert 2016, Trieste, 15th September 2016, D.Einfeld

23. WP-00 Management: Risk List and Risks Factors
Risk Assessment, Alert 2016, Trieste, 15th September 2016, D.Einfeld

24. WP-00 Management - Risk List and Risks Factors
Risk Assessment, Alert 2016, Trieste, 15th September 2016, D.Einfeld

25. WP-01 & WP-02: Risk List and Risks Factors
Risk Assessment, Alert 2016, Trieste, 15th September 2016, D.Einfeld

26. WP-03 Mechanical Eng. - Risk List and Risk Factors
Risk Assessment, Alert 2016, Trieste, 15th September 2016, D.Einfeld

27. WP-04 Power Supply - Risk List and Risk Factors
Risk Assessment, Alert 2016, Trieste, 15th September 2016, D.Einfeld

28. WP-05 RF - Risk List and Risk Factors
What does FAT and SAT mean?
Risk Assessment, Alert 2016, Trieste, 15th September 2016, D.Einfeld

29. WP-06 Control System – Risk List and Risk Factors
Risk Assessment, Alert 2016, Trieste, 15th September 2016, D.Einfeld

30. WP-07, WP-08 & WP-09: Risk List and Risks Factors
Risk Assessment, Alert 2016, Trieste, 15th September 2016, D.Einfeld

31. WP-Injection: Risk List and Risks Factors
Risk Assessment, Alert 2016, Trieste, 15th September 2016, D.Einfeld

32. WP-08 Photon Sources – Risk List and Risks Factors
Risk Assessment, Alert 2016, Trieste, 15th September 2016, D.Einfeld

33. WP-11 Buildings - Risk List and Risks Factors
Risk Assessment, Alert 2016, Trieste, 15th September 2016, D.Einfeld

34. WP-11 Implementation - Risk List and Risks Factors
Risk Assessment, Alert 2016, Trieste, 15th September 2016, D.Einfeld

35. WP-11 Implementation - Risk List and Risks Factors
Risk Assessment, Alert 2016, Trieste, 15th September 2016, D.Einfeld

36. WP-13 & ALGE - Risk Matrix and Risk Factors
Risk Assessment, Alert 2016, Trieste, 15th September 2016, D.Einfeld

37. Conclusions
So far we made the identification, analysis and evaluation of the risks. According to this one can make the following statements:
We don’t have risks in WP12
There aren’t any risk which are “high” or “almost certain”.
The highest risks are in WP11 and WP00
The highest risks are “delays” with 28 tasks and “technical” with 11 tasks.
Risk Assessment, Alert 2016, Trieste, 15th September 2016, D.Einfeld

38. Conclusions The phases of the project: Design Procurement Production
Assembly
Installation
Commissioning
We have finished more or less the first 2 phases, which are “in house” responsibilities.
Most critical for the delays is the production phase, which depends upon the companies. In order to minimize the risk during this phase, the contracts have to be followed up very closely.
The assembly, installation and commissioning is again an “in house” responsibility. A detailed planning should reduce the risk
Risk Assessment, Alert 2016, Trieste, 15th September 2016, D.Einfeld

39. Many thanks for your attention!
Risk Assessment, Alert 2016, Trieste, 15th September 2016, D.Einfeld