1. Greater London Authority Sub-national modelling
Ben Corr/Wil Tonkiss
27 March, Leeds

2. Content GLA Trend model Housing-led model Integrated models Overview
Outputs
National picture
Housing-led model
Integrated models

3. Trend model Cohort component model Multi-region migration Configurable
Incorporates DCLG household model
Validated by CPC, Southampton
Preferred option for London - underpins the London Plan

4. Trend model gui

5. Trend model gui

6. Net domestic: london

7. Net international: london

8. Trend model: national results

9. Model application Underpins the London Plan
London borough housing targets
Indicative impacts for planning process across the Wider South-East Region

10. Housing-led model
Provides an alternative to purely trend-based modelling
Incorporates local intelligence about past and future house building
Amends domestic migration flows to reconcile population with housing supply
Constrains to the trend population at the level of the Housing Market Area

11. Variant model results
Central Trend
Housing-led

12. Integrated models Small area model (ward & msoa)
Ethnic group model (17 groups)
Employment-led model (gva growth +/- 3%)
School Rolls projection model

13. Documentation & contact
London Datastore:
Model methodology documents
Model output files (London only)
Contact

14. Example outputs

15. Ethnic group model

17. Ethnic group model

18. Ward projection profiles