1. China and the forces that are breaking all the trends
Torch Light Conference
Columbia University
September, , 2017
Manuel Pinho
4/14/17
Manuel Pinho

2. My first impressions of China
2007
EU- China Annual Summit
Defending Europe´s interests
“Imagine, for the sake of argument, that Europe's politicians sit down to debate how Europe can best defend its interests in a globalized economy. In effect, they want to draft a European foreign economic policy.
Europe's basic foreign economic policy should be 10 words long.
Resist protectionism at home.
Open markets abroad.
Defend fair trade.”

3. The next time that I will visit Beijing in 2018 and 2019
Tong Zhou
2018
Daxingit
2019

4. My second impressions of China
2011
The good and the bad
The good
The bad

5. My recent visit to China
2017

6. Chinese are in love with the digital revolution
Innovation
Chinese are in love with the digital revolution
Yu´e Bao
165 billion $

7. 2017
Extremely strong political leadership of President Xi Jinping on the eve of the 19th National Congress of the Communist Party, where 5 of the 7 members of the Political Bureau Standing Committee will be replaced
The idea of the new normal seems to be well established and there is no major concern with lower GDP growth rates
U turn on the policy of encouraging or facilitating companies to make acquisitions abroad
The policies of the US new administration are taken seriously, however there is the feeling that a full blown trade war will not happen given that the economy of the 2 countries is very intertwined
The speed of adoption of digital technologies is amazing and is permitting China to leapfrog in many areas
Air quality is improving

8. The end of western dominance
The end of Western dominance: did your parents own a car when you were born?

9. Imagine the G20 meeting in 2030
China´s GDP should be 40% higher than in the US although income per capita should be no higher than Greece´s current level

10. 4 misconceptions about China
We are not in 2007 anymore

11. Bears Goldilocks

12. Accelerating technological change New globalization paradigm
No ordinary change
Accelerating technological change
Shift eastwards
New globalization paradigm
Rapid urbanization
Climate awareness
Energy transition
Exponential
Combinatorial
Digital
China, India, Japan, Korea, Taiwan, Australia
Equipment goods, global value chains, energy prices
Middle income and developing countries will benefit the most
US pulling out from Paris COP 21 is manageable
Clean energues, efficiency, mobility

13. There is a global disruption with few precedents as a result not of one but of 6 driving forces operating at the same time and China is a major contributor in all fronts:
Accelerating technological change: China is one of the countries where the digital revolution is unfolding more rapidly
Shift eastwards of the world´s center of gravity: China is the largest economy in Asia and in the world
New globalization paradigm: China is the world´s n. 1 exporter and n. 2 importer and maintains a comfortable trade surplus
Urbanization: The growth of the urban population creates a tremendous opportunity to develop consumer spending and investment in areas such as ports, airports and buildings
Climate awareness: China was offered the possibility of becoming the champion of climate change
Energy transition: China is, by far, the largest investor in renewable energies

14. Fear instigated the war, not objective reasons.
This is why it is so important on the one hand to understand the true meaning of ‟making America great again‟ and on the other hand exploit the possibilities to develop cooperation between the US and China.
Cooperation is the best way to create bridges and avoiding irrational behaviors.