1. Playing Against a Stacked Deck: Using Poker Theory to Better Manage WC Claims
Presented By:
James A. Moran

2. When a man with money meets a man with experience, the man with experience leaves with money and the man with money leaves with experience.
     -  Anonymous

3. Game Theory

4. Agenda
Clubs: Controlling the Opposition
Spades: Digging for Information
Diamonds: Financial Considerations
Hearts: The Art of Persuasion

5. Clubs: Controlling the Opposition

6. OJ VIDEO

7. Influence Tactics

8. Heuristics

9. Reference Point Effects

10. Diminishing Marginal Losses and Gains

11. Delivering the News

12. Loss Aversion

13. Escalation of Commitment

14. Irrational Reciprocity

15. Spades: Digging for Information

16. Tells, or Seeing into Your Opponent’s Soul

17. Blocking Techniques

18. If All Else Fails…

19. Diamonds: Financial Considerations

20. The Sunk Cost Fallacy

21. Expected Value

22. Expected Value
(% Probability1) ($ Payoff1) = Value1
(% Probability2) ($ Payoff2) = + Value2

23. Expected Value
(.5) ($100) = $50
(.5) ($0) = + $0
$50

24. Expected Value
.25 x $250,000 = $62,500
.25 x $50,000 = $12,500
.25 x $20,000 = $5,000
.25 x $1 = + $0.25
$80,000.25

25. Expected Value (40%) ($50,000) (70%) = $14,000
(40%) ($50,000) (70%) = $14,000
(30%) ($150,000) (70%) = $31,500
(30%) ($300,000) (70%) = $63,000
(40%) ($100,000) (70%) = $28,000
(60%) ($0) (70%) = $0
(70%) ($100,000) (70%) = $49,000
(30%) ($0) (70%) = $0
$185,500

26. Hearts: The Art of Persuasion

27. Conjunction Fallacy

28. Questions?

29. Thank You
James A. Moran
Shareholder
(312)