1. Global Challenges: Ageing and potentially shrinking labour forces
Rainer Münz
Erste Group
IFA 11th Global Conference on Ageing
Prague, May 29, 2012 1

2. Global demographic trends

3. 20th Century

4. 21st Century

5. Growing world population
Reality no. 1:
Growing world population

7. From 6 billion to 7 billion people: Contribution per continent to earth’s 7th billion
Asia
Africa
Latin America
North America
Europe
Oceania

8. Total Population change by Major Area,1950-21003
Total Population change by Major Area,
Source: UN, 2010 8

9. … Europe’s, Russia’s and Japan’s populations have already started to shrink Projected population growth, , in %
to -20 %
-20% - -5%
-5% - 0%
0% - 25%
25% - 75%
75% - 100%
100% - 150%
150% - 200%
above 200%
n. a.
Source: Berlin Institute 2010

10. Some Regions of Europe have the most rapidly shrinking populations Projected population change , in %
Source: Berlin Institute 2010

11. Reality no. 2:
Global ageing

12. Demographic ageing is a global phenomenon Total Population change age groups 0-19 vs 50+, 1950-2100
Source: UN, 2010 12

13. Europe is continuously getting older
Age
2050
2010
1950
Source: Eurostat, Europop 2008

14. … and driven by two trends

16. During the last six decades, global life expectancy has increased by 20 years Life expectancy by world regions,
Source: UNPD 2011

18. In the same period, the overall number of children per woman has halved Total fertility by world regions,
Source: UNPD 2011

19. Today 50% of humanity live in societies with less than 2 children per family World population by Total Fertility,
Population in million
Source: UN, 2010

20. … however, demographic ageing is not affecting all regions the same way

21. Europe and Japan have the oldest populations Share of age group 65+ in total population
n. a.
to 3%
3% - 6%
6% - 9%
9% - 12%
12% - 15%
above 15%
Source: UNPop Div 2011

22. The demographic development of the richer world is in a very advanced stage: Countries with a stagnating or shrinking native population account for four-fifth of world economy
China
France
Indonesia
Russia
Brazil
Slowly growing population
Low life expectancy, high fertility
Germany
India
Egypt
USA
Italy
Nigeria
Japan
South Africa
Stagnating population
High life expectancy, low fertility
Chad
Ethiopia
Shrinking population
Ageing society
Niger
Fast growing population
Increasing life expectancy, gradually sinking fertility

23. What challenges is the rich world facing due to demographic trends?

24. Aging and eventually shrinking labour forces
Challenge no. 1:
Aging and eventually shrinking labour forces

25. Demographic trends affect labour supply highly differently Development of labour force until 2020 (in %)
below -5%
-5% - 0%
0% - 10%
10%- 20%
above 20%
Source: based on ILO data 2011

26. In some developed countries working-age populations have already started to shrink Working-age population, in million
Source: The Economist 2012

27. What can we do?

28. Work 10 years longer than today

29. Therefore, labour force participation rate of the age group 55-64 needs to be increased
EU countries
Non EU countries an
Source: Eurostat 2012
EU-27 average

31. Working longer is an option, but employing the elderly needs adaptation in several areas
New pension system
Lifelong learning
New salary system

32. … even if such measures are not cheered by parts of the electorate

33. Increase female labour force participation

34. Increase labour productivity

35. Bring in more migrants

36. Migration helps reducing the pace of demographic ageing EU-27, age structure of population and of immigrants
Median EU-27: 40.6 years
Median Immigrants: 28.4 years
Source: Eurostat, 2010.

37. The challenge is to attract the right skills

38. … via smart migration policies?

39. The US more easily attracts talent and skills Immigrants of birth cohorts in the US, Canada, Italy and Spain by average years of schooling
Source: Fargues 2010

40. Tomorrow, the developed world will compete for workforce, especially for young and skilled migrants

41. ...but today, the problem seems to be another one
Youth unemployment (age 15-24, in %)
Source: OECD

42. None of the mentioned strategies alone is enough to overcome the ageing problem, but their combination might do it

43. All strategies are highly unpopular in Europe, but much less so in the US and Canada

44. Integration within increasingly diverse societies
Challenge no. 2:
Integration within increasingly diverse societies

45. How to encourage integration?

46. How to deal with ethnic, cultural and religious diversity?

47. If you want to know more
Overcrowded World? Global Population and International Migration
Haus Publishing
ISBN: 
€ 9.95; $14.95, £ 9.90

48. Thank you for your attention!