1. Birth Dearth

2. Birth Dearth
Birth dearth – the situation in a country where a low total fertility rate is causing the population to decline.

3. 3 Fundamental Factors that Affect Pop’n Size
Total Fertility Rate (avg. # of children born over a lifetime of a typical woman)
a. young women are better educated than previous generations. Marry later
b. choosing to have a career outside the home. Greater access to birth control.
c. more control over their lives
Life Expectancy
Migration

4. Birth Dearth Low total fertility rate causes decline
Decline will accelerate

5. Implications of the Birth Dearth

6. 1. Family Structures Many people w/o brothers and sisters
No uncles and aunts
Changing the character of the family
Recall China’s “little emperors”
Children may be overwhelmed by the responsibility of looking after parents and grandparents
Friends may come to play a greater family-like role
Increase in DINKS (Double Income No Kids) couples

7. 2. Aging Population North American Social Security 3 Solutions
Lower pension benefits
Paying out lower amts
Require ppl to work longer
Increase premiums; taxes
Restrict eligibility based on Income

8. Intergenerational conflict possible as younger generation must focus so much of their lives supporting huge numbers
Older workforce

9. 3. Labour Shortage Early retirement is a reality for many
Following generations might have to work longer
“Freedom 70”?
Migration
Challenge for Europe and Japan – regions that are unaccustomed to mass immigration from various parts of the world

10. 4. Economic Effects Concept of never ending growth
Growth occurs for 2 reasons:
Needs (need stuff)
There are more people who want more stuff
If there is an implosion the latter could disappear and there would be fewer consumers, which would hurt economy

11. Shift in World Powers?
UN Veto Power – U.S.A., Russia, China, U.K. and France were given this b/c the were the most powerful nations after WWII
Will/should countries like India replace them?

12. Benefits of Dearth Environmental impact Less resources needed?
Less waste and pollution?

13. Why it’s Happening – Status of Women
Young women are more educated
Birth control
More women choosing careers
Work for more yrs
More control over their lives
Marry later
Some may choose not to marry

14. Prevention?
Pronatalist Strategies – ideas that encourage people to have more children
Eg. Tax benefits, inexpensive day care etc.

15. Application
1. Some authorities feel that society has fundamentally changed and that larger families are a thing of the past. How do smaller families reflect the realities of modern life? Consider both economic and social realities.
2. Describe how the healthcare needs of countries like Canada will change as the population implosion occurs.
3. Give specific examples of jobs that will become more common and others that will become less common because of demographic change.
4. Discuss the statement, “The birth dearth is essentially a woman’s issue.” True/false?
5. Describe how pension payments are related to the ratio of active and retired workers. Why are pensions being threatened by population changes?