1. What better example than Finally, What’s the Bottom Line?
The Lighter Side
Celebrations:
What better example than
New Years?
Finally, What’s the Bottom Line?

2. An obvious prediction: New Years celebrations Concatenation across all (24) time zones Cumulative excess deviation of means
Model Prediction
Weak Replication

3. Broughton: Taking the metaphor to heart
Evoked Response in the Electrogaiagram: Signal averaging: Mini-Celebrating time zones

4. Evoked Response in the Electrogaiagram: Maxi-celebrating time zones, Signal averaging

5. An Alternative Analysis Variance of the Scores
Sum of zi2-1 across eggs is c2 with N df
Equivalent to variance s2 of egg scores
Large cumulative deviation
Reflects distribution spread, variability of means
Reflects large deviations in either direction

6. Y2K New Year 1999-2000: Coherent engagement
Y2K New Year : Coherent engagement? Radin makes an independent prediction Reduction of Variance across eggs
Odds, GMT

7. New Years : Variance Reduction Signal Average over 37 time zones Normalized, Squared, Smoothed

8. New Years : Variance Reduction Signal Average over 37 time zones Normalized as Z-scores, Smoothed
5-Min Smoothing Window

9. What do we have in hand? Where do we want to go with it?
Four years of data
50 eggs around the world
More than 100 formal studies
About 65% positive outcome
About 20% individually significant
Many analyses remain to be done

10. Formal Chi-square outcome sequence versus random draws from Chi-square distribution

11. A subset of the formal trials, compared with Pseudo-random data

12. Bottom line: the full formal database 113 global events over 4 years

13. Bigger Picture: What is our aspiration?
Sharpen and focus our questions
Aim for theoretical understanding
Capture insight about creative mind
Consider evidence that we are one
Contribute to better future for culture

14. We think the world apart
We think the world apart. What would it be like to think the world together? Parker Palmer, educator