Barometer of Public Opinion November 2010

Barometer of Public Opinion November 2010
©Institutul de Politici Publice, 2010 16 noiembrie, 2010

Information about the poll
The poll was conducted on site by the Institute for Marketing and Polls IMAS-INC Chişinău Amount of the sample: people aged 18 and more; Representativeness: The sample is representative for the adult population of the Republic of Moldova, with a maximal error of +3.0% Period of data gathering : October, 17 – November, 7, The interviews were conducted at the respondents’ domicile. The analysis of the sample structure obtained on site revealed the concordance between the distribution of the population according to the available statistical data and those obtained, with the admissible statistical deviation. A difference was remarked within the structure women/men, women being over-represented, and within age groups, young people aged being under-represented. The results shown below are balanced. The difference between balanced and non-balanced data does not overpass 1,2% with regard to any question. ©Institutul de Politici Publice, 2010 16 noiembrie, 2010

Is our country moving towards a right or a wrong direction?

Assess the activity of the new Government (led by Vlad Filat)

©Institutul de Politici Publice, 2010
Please state the most important three achievements of Government led by Vlad Filat? (total) ©Institutul de Politici Publice, 2010 16 noiembrie, 2010

Please state the most important three failures of Government led by Vlad Filat? (total) ©Institutul de Politici Publice, 2010 16 noiembrie, 2010

Assess the present income of your family

Which is the most important source of information for you? (two options, total) ©Institutul de Politici Publice, 2010 16 noiembrie, 2010

Which TV channels do you get informed from the oftenest? (two options, total) Basis: the respondents for whom television is one of the most important sources of information ©Institutul de Politici Publice, 2010 16 noiembrie, 2010

Which radio stations do you get informed from the oftenest? (two options, total) Basis: the respondents for whom radio is one of the most important sources of information ©Institutul de Politici Publice, 2010 16 noiembrie, 2010

Which institution holds the largest political power in the Republic of Moldova, in your opinion? ©Institutul de Politici Publice, 2010 16 noiembrie, 2010

Which institution should hold the largest political power in the Republic of Moldova? ©Institutul de Politici Publice, 2010 16 noiembrie, 2010

In the Republic of Moldova, judges are appointed by the President, in other countries-by the people. What method do you consider as the most appropriate for the Republic of Moldova? ©Institutul de Politici Publice, 2010 16 noiembrie, 2010

To what extent does the Orthodox Church of Moldova get involved in politics, in your opinion? ©Institutul de Politici Publice, 2010 16 noiembrie, 2010

Should the church get involved in politics, in your opinion?

How many official languages should there be in the Republic of Moldova? ©Institutul de Politici Publice, 2010 16 noiembrie, 2010

To what extent do you trust in …?
No trust / Not so much trust / Some trust / Very much trust ©Institutul de Politici Publice, 2010 16 noiembrie, 2010

Which political personality do you trust in the most? (open-ended question) ©Institutul de Politici Publice, 2010 16 noiembrie, 2010

To what extent do you trust in the following political personalities?
I have not heard about I No trust I Not so much trust I Some trust I Very much trust ©Institutul de Politici Publice, 2010 16 noiembrie, 2010

To what extent do you trust in the following political personalities? (dynamics, BOP) ©Institutul de Politici Publice, 2010 16 noiembrie, 2010

Rate of participation - controverses
The polls are conducted on samples extracted from the population which is EFFECTIVELY PRESENT in the country! Consequently, the poll’s conclusions concern only the population which is in the country at the time of conducting the poll! Rate of participation (CEC) = Number of participants in the election /Total electors (percentage). Rate of participation (poll) = Number of participants in the election /Total electors present (!) in the country. ©Institutul de Politici Publice, 2010 16 noiembrie, 2010

Did you take part in the referendum held on 5th of September on the modification of the method to elect the President of the country? ©Institutul de Politici Publice, 2010 16 noiembrie, 2010

Example The poll shows a rate of participation of 58.4%; Number of emigrated people approximately 450 thousand Total electors on the list 2.6 million Electors who are effectively present in the country 2.6 million – 0.45 million = 2.15 million Participants in the election according to the poll 2.15 million X 58.4% = 1.26 million Rate of participation calculated according to CEC = 1.26 million/2.6 million = 48.3% Comment: About 18-19% of respondents either said an untruth (because it is better, in their opinion), or are not aware of what happens in the country, therefore, the responses to some questions should be analyzed cautiously, and interpreted! ©Institutul de Politici Publice, 2010 16 noiembrie, 2010

Will you go to voting, if legislative election is held next Sunday?

Example The poll shows a rate of participation of 77.4% Number of emigrated people approximately 450 thousand Total electors on the lists 2.6 million Electors effectively present in the country 2.6 million– 0.45 million = 2.15 million Participants in the election according to the survey 2.15 million X 77.4% = 1.66 million Rate of participation calculated according to CEC = 1.66 mln/2.6 million = 64% ©Institutul de Politici Publice, 2010 16 noiembrie, 2010

Will you go to voting, if legislative election is held next Sunday?

Which party would you vote for, if legislative election is held next Sunday in the Republic of Moldova? Percentage of the total sample! ©Institutul de Politici Publice, 2010 16 noiembrie, 2010

Comment The poll shows a rate of undecided people of 26.1% (DK + NA) Number of emigrated people approximately 450 thousand Total electors on the lists 2.6 million Electors effectively present in the country 2.6 million – 0.45 million = 2.15 million Undecided according to the poll 2.15 million X 26.1% = 0.56 million Do not take part in the election, according to the poll 2.15X5.1% = 0.11 million ; undecided plus absent = 0.67 million ; or, this is the real rate of non-participation, the rest 2.3 million – 0.67 million = 1.63 million are the real participants in the election. Conclusions: there is a myth about the high percentage of undecided people; the fight is probably given for the electorate of parties. ©Institutul de Politici Publice, 2010 16 noiembrie, 2010

Which party would you vote for, if legislative election is held next Sunday in the Republic of Moldova? Percentage from the sub-sample of decided respondents (68.9% of the total sample)! ©Institutul de Politici Publice, 2010 16 noiembrie, 2010

Composition of Parliament (scenarios, 1)

Which party would you vote for, if legislative election is held next Sunday in the Republic of Moldova? Percentage of the sub-sample “I would go to voting, I am absolutely sure”, 675 respondents, 61.1% of the total sample! ©Institutul de Politici Publice, 2010 16 noiembrie, 2010

Which party would you vote for, if legislative election is held next Sunday in the Republic of Moldova? Percentage of the sub-sample “I would go to voting, I am absolutely sure” plus “I would go to voting, I am sure”, 855 respondents! ©Institutul de Politici Publice, 2010 16 noiembrie, 2010

Barometer of Public Opinion November 2010

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