1. 1940
1960
1995
Census and forecast, Mexico from 1940 to 2050

2. "Mortality trajectory and distribution of ages at death for the oldest old: comparing HMD with empirical data"
Jean-Marie Robine*, Karen Siu Lan Cheung**, and Graziella Caselli**
*Inserm, Montpellier, **University of Rome, La Sapienza
Human mortality over age, time sex, and place,
The 1st HMD Symposium, Rostock, June 18-19, 2004

3. Trends in extreme longevity, including a comparison of data sources for mortality analysis at very high ages Two main research questions

4. Mortality trajectory?
Kannisto-Thatcher Database

5. International Database on Longevity (IDL)

6. Complete (age-bias free) and validated data (110+)
Content of IDL
Complete (age-bias free) and validated data (110+)
Country of death N
Source
Obs. Period
England and Wales 53
ONS
France 49
INSEE
Italy 21
ISTAT
Japan
96*
MHW
(sept, 30th)
Denmark 2
CRS
(july,1st)
Quebec 8
ISQ
USA
326
SSA
Switzerland 4
OFS ?
*for Japan, only 29 cases have been validated
5th Workshop on Supercentenarians Tokyo June 14-15, 2004

7. Complete ? and validated ? data (110+)
Content of IDL
Complete ? and validated ? data (110+)
Country of death N
Source
Belgium 5 ?
Netherlands 19
Nordic countries
(Finland, Norway, Sweden)
5th Workshop on Supercentenarians Tokyo June 14-15, 2004

8. Incomplete and validated data (110+)
Content of IDL
Incomplete and validated data (110+)
Country of death N
Source
Australia 11
Press reports
Canada (out of Quebec) 10
5th Workshop on Supercentenarians Tokyo June 14-15, 2004

9. Mortality trajectory?

10. Compression or expansion of longevity?

11. Compression or expansion?
Sources: INED period life tables for France and HMD for Sweden

12. Different increases in life expectancy and mode
Sources: INED period life tables for France and HMD for Sweden

13. Increase in M and decrease in SD(M+), France & Sweden, 1806-2000
Sources: INED period life tables for France and HMD for Sweden

14. Can we use the HMD?

15. qx series, Swiss complete life tables, 1876-80 / 1988-93

16. qx series, Life tables,
Some graduations

17. dx series, Swiss complete life tables, 1876-80 / 1999-2002

18. Swiss qx series,
HMD versus complete life tables, / /

19. Swiss dx series,
HMD versus complete life tables, / /

20. Swiss qx series,
HMD versus complete life table without graduadion,

21. Swiss dx series,
HMD versus complete life table without graduadion,

22. Age at mode in Italy, La Sapienza database and HMD

23. Age at mode (x axis) and standard deviation (y axis): actual and fitted values with a log-linear model,

24. Compression or expansion in Japan?

25. Last dx, HMD versus empirical data, Switzerland, females 1876-2002