1. The Good, The Bad and The Ugly of US Productivity
Nick Bloom (Stanford)
British, came to Stanford 10 years ago to give a seminar and ended up staying. Fantastic place and live on campus with my wife and three kids.

2. Good: US Levels Ugly: Inequality Bad: Trends
Kid growing up in North London do a lot of dickens. 1843
Mostly pretty depressing: Hard times, Bleak House and Oliver twist. Typically start depressing, middle part is depressing and end depressing
Christmas Carol is fortunately different.
Ebeneezer scrooge is visited by three ghosts on Xmas ever.
Ghost of Christmas past shows Scrooge’s childhood and the happy times with his sister Fan until she died, but also the lack of love shown by his parents that made him the Scrooge he is now.
Ghost of Christmas present shows Scrooge’s employee Bob Cratchit at home having dinner with his family, including his sick-son tiny Tim. Also shows him the fun others like his nephew are having
Ghost of Christmas yet to come shows his funeral, where nobody comes except those looking to a free lunch, and his belongings being plundered by his housekeeper Mrs Dilber.
But unlike most Dickens this has a happy ending as Scrooge changes his ways, spending the day with his nephews family and sending the Crackits a turkey for Xmas. Nephew Fred.
This is how I want to discuss the future of the US economy today
Good: US Levels
Ugly:
Inequality
Bad:
Trends

3. America is the Most Productive (Large) Country
Productivity (GDP per hour) as a % of the US in 2014 20 40 60 80
100
United States
Netherlands
France
Germany
Australia
Canada
Italy
Spain
United Kingdom
Japan

4. America is also the Worlds Richest (Large) Country
GDP Per Capita (2014 $)
20,000
40,000
60,000
United States
Netherlands
Australia
Germany
Canada
Spain
United Kingdom
France
Japan
Italy

5. Good: US Levels Ugly: Inequality Bad: Trends
Kid growing up in North London do a lot of dickens. 1843
Mostly pretty depressing: Hard times, Bleak House and Oliver twist. Typically start depressing, middle part is depressing and end depressing
Christmas Carol is fortunately different.
Ebeneezer scrooge is visited by three ghosts on Xmas ever.
Ghost of Christmas past shows Scrooge’s childhood and the happy times with his sister Fan until she died, but also the lack of love shown by his parents that made him the Scrooge he is now.
Ghost of Christmas present shows Scrooge’s employee Bob Cratchit at home having dinner with his family, including his sick-son tiny Tim. Also shows him the fun others like his nephew are having
Ghost of Christmas yet to come shows his funeral, where nobody comes except those looking to a free lunch, and his belongings being plundered by his housekeeper Mrs Dilber.
But unlike most Dickens this has a happy ending as Scrooge changes his ways, spending the day with his nephews family and sending the Crackits a turkey for Xmas. Nephew Fred.
This is how I want to discuss the future of the US economy today
Good: US Levels
Ugly:
Inequality
Bad:
Trends

6. Is Productivity Growth Slowing Down?-5 5 10 15
US Productivity Growth
1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
Kid growing up in North London do a lot of dickens. 1843
Mostly pretty depressing: Hard times, Bleak House and Oliver twist. Typically start depressing, middle part is depressing and end depressing
Christmas Carol is fortunately different.
Ebeneezer scrooge is visited by three ghosts on Xmas ever.
Ghost of Christmas past shows Scrooge’s childhood and the happy times with his sister Fan until she died, but also the lack of love shown by his parents that made him the Scrooge he is now.
Ghost of Christmas present shows Scrooge’s employee Bob Cratchit at home having dinner with his family, including his sick-son tiny Tim. Also shows him the fun others like his nephew are having
Ghost of Christmas yet to come shows his funeral, where nobody comes except those looking to a free lunch, and his belongings being plundered by his housekeeper Mrs Dilber.
But unlike most Dickens this has a happy ending as Scrooge changes his ways, spending the day with his nephews family and sending the Crackits a turkey for Xmas. Nephew Fred.
This is how I want to discuss the future of the US economy today

7. Is Productivity Growth Slowing Down?-5 5 10 15
US Productivity Growth
1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
Kid growing up in North London do a lot of dickens. 1843
Mostly pretty depressing: Hard times, Bleak House and Oliver twist. Typically start depressing, middle part is depressing and end depressing
Christmas Carol is fortunately different.
Ebeneezer scrooge is visited by three ghosts on Xmas ever.
Ghost of Christmas past shows Scrooge’s childhood and the happy times with his sister Fan until she died, but also the lack of love shown by his parents that made him the Scrooge he is now.
Ghost of Christmas present shows Scrooge’s employee Bob Cratchit at home having dinner with his family, including his sick-son tiny Tim. Also shows him the fun others like his nephew are having
Ghost of Christmas yet to come shows his funeral, where nobody comes except those looking to a free lunch, and his belongings being plundered by his housekeeper Mrs Dilber.
But unlike most Dickens this has a happy ending as Scrooge changes his ways, spending the day with his nephews family and sending the Crackits a turkey for Xmas. Nephew Fred.
This is how I want to discuss the future of the US economy today

8. Is Productivity Growth Slowing Down?-5 5 10 15
US Productivity Growth
1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
Kid growing up in North London do a lot of dickens. 1843
Mostly pretty depressing: Hard times, Bleak House and Oliver twist. Typically start depressing, middle part is depressing and end depressing
Christmas Carol is fortunately different.
Ebeneezer scrooge is visited by three ghosts on Xmas ever.
Ghost of Christmas past shows Scrooge’s childhood and the happy times with his sister Fan until she died, but also the lack of love shown by his parents that made him the Scrooge he is now.
Ghost of Christmas present shows Scrooge’s employee Bob Cratchit at home having dinner with his family, including his sick-son tiny Tim. Also shows him the fun others like his nephew are having
Ghost of Christmas yet to come shows his funeral, where nobody comes except those looking to a free lunch, and his belongings being plundered by his housekeeper Mrs Dilber.
But unlike most Dickens this has a happy ending as Scrooge changes his ways, spending the day with his nephews family and sending the Crackits a turkey for Xmas. Nephew Fred.
This is how I want to discuss the future of the US economy today

9. Is Productivity Growth Slowing Down?-5 5 10 15
US Productivity Growth
1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
Kid growing up in North London do a lot of dickens. 1843
Mostly pretty depressing: Hard times, Bleak House and Oliver twist. Typically start depressing, middle part is depressing and end depressing
Christmas Carol is fortunately different.
Ebeneezer scrooge is visited by three ghosts on Xmas ever.
Ghost of Christmas past shows Scrooge’s childhood and the happy times with his sister Fan until she died, but also the lack of love shown by his parents that made him the Scrooge he is now.
Ghost of Christmas present shows Scrooge’s employee Bob Cratchit at home having dinner with his family, including his sick-son tiny Tim. Also shows him the fun others like his nephew are having
Ghost of Christmas yet to come shows his funeral, where nobody comes except those looking to a free lunch, and his belongings being plundered by his housekeeper Mrs Dilber.
But unlike most Dickens this has a happy ending as Scrooge changes his ways, spending the day with his nephews family and sending the Crackits a turkey for Xmas. Nephew Fred.
This is how I want to discuss the future of the US economy today

10. Is Productivity Growth Slowing Down?-5 5 10 15
US Productivity Growth
1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
Kid growing up in North London do a lot of dickens. 1843
Mostly pretty depressing: Hard times, Bleak House and Oliver twist. Typically start depressing, middle part is depressing and end depressing
Christmas Carol is fortunately different.
Ebeneezer scrooge is visited by three ghosts on Xmas ever.
Ghost of Christmas past shows Scrooge’s childhood and the happy times with his sister Fan until she died, but also the lack of love shown by his parents that made him the Scrooge he is now.
Ghost of Christmas present shows Scrooge’s employee Bob Cratchit at home having dinner with his family, including his sick-son tiny Tim. Also shows him the fun others like his nephew are having
Ghost of Christmas yet to come shows his funeral, where nobody comes except those looking to a free lunch, and his belongings being plundered by his housekeeper Mrs Dilber.
But unlike most Dickens this has a happy ending as Scrooge changes his ways, spending the day with his nephews family and sending the Crackits a turkey for Xmas. Nephew Fred.
This is how I want to discuss the future of the US economy today

11. Is Productivity Growth Slowing Down?-5 5 10 15
US Productivity Growth
1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
Kid growing up in North London do a lot of dickens. 1843
Mostly pretty depressing: Hard times, Bleak House and Oliver twist. Typically start depressing, middle part is depressing and end depressing
Christmas Carol is fortunately different.
Ebeneezer scrooge is visited by three ghosts on Xmas ever.
Ghost of Christmas past shows Scrooge’s childhood and the happy times with his sister Fan until she died, but also the lack of love shown by his parents that made him the Scrooge he is now.
Ghost of Christmas present shows Scrooge’s employee Bob Cratchit at home having dinner with his family, including his sick-son tiny Tim. Also shows him the fun others like his nephew are having
Ghost of Christmas yet to come shows his funeral, where nobody comes except those looking to a free lunch, and his belongings being plundered by his housekeeper Mrs Dilber.
But unlike most Dickens this has a happy ending as Scrooge changes his ways, spending the day with his nephews family and sending the Crackits a turkey for Xmas. Nephew Fred.
This is how I want to discuss the future of the US economy today

12. Is Productivity Growth Slowing Down?-5 5 10 15
US Productivity Growth
1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
Kid growing up in North London do a lot of dickens. 1843
Mostly pretty depressing: Hard times, Bleak House and Oliver twist. Typically start depressing, middle part is depressing and end depressing
Christmas Carol is fortunately different.
Ebeneezer scrooge is visited by three ghosts on Xmas ever.
Ghost of Christmas past shows Scrooge’s childhood and the happy times with his sister Fan until she died, but also the lack of love shown by his parents that made him the Scrooge he is now.
Ghost of Christmas present shows Scrooge’s employee Bob Cratchit at home having dinner with his family, including his sick-son tiny Tim. Also shows him the fun others like his nephew are having
Ghost of Christmas yet to come shows his funeral, where nobody comes except those looking to a free lunch, and his belongings being plundered by his housekeeper Mrs Dilber.
But unlike most Dickens this has a happy ending as Scrooge changes his ways, spending the day with his nephews family and sending the Crackits a turkey for Xmas. Nephew Fred.
This is how I want to discuss the future of the US economy today

13. Is Productivity Growth Slowing Down?-5 5 10 15
US Productivity Growth
1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
Kid growing up in North London do a lot of dickens. 1843
Mostly pretty depressing: Hard times, Bleak House and Oliver twist. Typically start depressing, middle part is depressing and end depressing
Christmas Carol is fortunately different.
Ebeneezer scrooge is visited by three ghosts on Xmas ever.
Ghost of Christmas past shows Scrooge’s childhood and the happy times with his sister Fan until she died, but also the lack of love shown by his parents that made him the Scrooge he is now.
Ghost of Christmas present shows Scrooge’s employee Bob Cratchit at home having dinner with his family, including his sick-son tiny Tim. Also shows him the fun others like his nephew are having
Ghost of Christmas yet to come shows his funeral, where nobody comes except those looking to a free lunch, and his belongings being plundered by his housekeeper Mrs Dilber.
But unlike most Dickens this has a happy ending as Scrooge changes his ways, spending the day with his nephews family and sending the Crackits a turkey for Xmas. Nephew Fred.
This is how I want to discuss the future of the US economy today

14. What about the future? It’s hard to tell as productivity growth is basically a random walk-2 2 4 6 8
Productivity Growth - This Year
Productivity Growth - Last Year
Kid growing up in North London do a lot of dickens. 1843
Mostly pretty depressing: Hard times, Bleak House and Oliver twist. Typically start depressing, middle part is depressing and end depressing
Christmas Carol is fortunately different.
Ebeneezer scrooge is visited by three ghosts on Xmas ever.
Ghost of Christmas past shows Scrooge’s childhood and the happy times with his sister Fan until she died, but also the lack of love shown by his parents that made him the Scrooge he is now.
Ghost of Christmas present shows Scrooge’s employee Bob Cratchit at home having dinner with his family, including his sick-son tiny Tim. Also shows him the fun others like his nephew are having
Ghost of Christmas yet to come shows his funeral, where nobody comes except those looking to a free lunch, and his belongings being plundered by his housekeeper Mrs Dilber.
But unlike most Dickens this has a happy ending as Scrooge changes his ways, spending the day with his nephews family and sending the Crackits a turkey for Xmas. Nephew Fred.
This is how I want to discuss the future of the US economy today

15. Good: US Levels Ugly: Inequality Bad: Trends
Kid growing up in North London do a lot of dickens. 1843
Mostly pretty depressing: Hard times, Bleak House and Oliver twist. Typically start depressing, middle part is depressing and end depressing
Christmas Carol is fortunately different.
Ebeneezer scrooge is visited by three ghosts on Xmas ever.
Ghost of Christmas past shows Scrooge’s childhood and the happy times with his sister Fan until she died, but also the lack of love shown by his parents that made him the Scrooge he is now.
Ghost of Christmas present shows Scrooge’s employee Bob Cratchit at home having dinner with his family, including his sick-son tiny Tim. Also shows him the fun others like his nephew are having
Ghost of Christmas yet to come shows his funeral, where nobody comes except those looking to a free lunch, and his belongings being plundered by his housekeeper Mrs Dilber.
But unlike most Dickens this has a happy ending as Scrooge changes his ways, spending the day with his nephews family and sending the Crackits a turkey for Xmas. Nephew Fred.
This is how I want to discuss the future of the US economy today
Good: US Levels
Ugly:
Inequality
Bad:
Trends

16. Since 1980 productivity growth has not benefitted the median family much at all50
100
150
200
1955
1965
1975
1985
1995
2005
2015
Productivity
(1980=100)
Kid growing up in North London do a lot of dickens. 1843
Mostly pretty depressing: Hard times, Bleak House and Oliver twist. Typically start depressing, middle part is depressing and end depressing
Christmas Carol is fortunately different.
Ebeneezer scrooge is visited by three ghosts on Xmas ever.
Ghost of Christmas past shows Scrooge’s childhood and the happy times with his sister Fan until she died, but also the lack of love shown by his parents that made him the Scrooge he is now.
Ghost of Christmas present shows Scrooge’s employee Bob Cratchit at home having dinner with his family, including his sick-son tiny Tim. Also shows him the fun others like his nephew are having
Ghost of Christmas yet to come shows his funeral, where nobody comes except those looking to a free lunch, and his belongings being plundered by his housekeeper Mrs Dilber.
But unlike most Dickens this has a happy ending as Scrooge changes his ways, spending the day with his nephews family and sending the Crackits a turkey for Xmas. Nephew Fred.
This is how I want to discuss the future of the US economy today
Real Median Family Income
(1980=100)

17. The Good, The Bad and The Ugly of US Productivity
Nick Bloom (Stanford)
British, came to Stanford 10 years ago to give a seminar and ended up staying. Fantastic place and live on campus with my wife and three kids.