1. 2018 VELCO IRP Forecast Preliminary results
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2018 VELCO IRP Forecast Preliminary results
August 2, 2017

2. Cold climate heat pumps

3. Cold-climate heat pump Comparison
Heat pump program (VEIC) is expected to add 3000 new units a year between and 2037 period.
Combined with market-driven adoption, HP saturation is expected to reach 28% by 2037 (against 33% with previous assumptions).

4. Program-Related saturation
New assumption of 3,000 units per year is significantly lower than the previous 3,700 units on average per year (min:2,600, max:5,200)

5. Heating vs. Cooling saturation
Heat pumps have a larger impact on winter peak as heat pump systems partially displace room air conditioning.

6. Heat pump program Sales (MWh)
Heating requirements are derived by combining saturation, customers, and heating UEC (starting at 3,260 kWh)
Lower heat pump sales given new VEIC unit sales forecast

7. Zonal HP Capacity (MW)
Allocation based on zonal winter peak demand

8. BTM Solar Load Forecast

9. Solar Forecast
Energy forecast adjusted based on incremental new capacity as of January 2017

10. Solar load zonal distribution
State solar forecast allocated to zone based on current solar capacity

11. Zonal PV Capacity (MW)

12. EV Forecast

13. VEIC electric Vehicle Forecast
Low case: EVs reach 40% of registered LDV by 2050
Medium case: EVs reach 60%
High case: EVs reach 90%
Forecast provided in 5 year increments.
Average kWh per vehicle is 2,808 in 2017, growing to 3,184 kWh by 2040

14. EV forecast Comparison
Previous forecast: capped EV sales at just over 2,500 annually (8.5% of vehicle sales).
VEIC forecast: EV sales increase to over 16,000 annually by 2035.

15. EV Sales as a Percentage of Total New Light-Duty Vehicle(LDV) sales: VEIC Forecast
Approx. 30,000 LDV sales in Assume total LDV sales increase at household growth rate.

16. Allocation to Zones
Based on Drive Electric Vermont Case Study. Current registered EVs by county.

17. Zonal EV Capacity (MW)

18. Peak Forecast Summary Preliminary

19. Summer peak summary

20. Winter peak summary

21. Energy summary

22. Comparison against 10% probability weather
Results in roughly 4% higher summer peak demand and 1% higher winter peak demand

23. Daily Peak vs. Daily average temperature
monthly summer peaks
monthly winter peaks
Winter load is flat in the extreme temperature ranges
Summer peak temperature range is relatively narrow

24. Finishing off the forecast
New Heat Pump Projections
BTM Solar Forecast
EV Forecast
Extreme weather
Updated end-use EE savings projection
Forecast scenarios
Stronger economic growth
Recession starting June 22, 2020
Stronger end-use efficiency
Trump wins re-election

25. Preliminary Zonal Peak Forecast (Summer MW)
Includes the impact of solar, EV’s, and heat-pumps

26. Preliminary Zonal Peak Forecast (Winter MW)
Includes the impact of solar, EV’s, and heat-pumps

27. Zonal energy

28. Zonal summer peak – normal weather

29. Zonal summer peak – extreme (10%) weather

30. Zonal winter peak – normal weather

31. Zonal winter peaks – extreme (10%) weather