1. Q2/2017 Developments in European Solar Markets & Beyond
Michael Schmela Executive Advisor SolarPower Europe

2. Q2/2017 SOLAR MARKET UPDATE - INDEX
1.1 EUROPE – Q2/2017 INSTALLATIONS
1.2 EUROPE – LEADING MARKETS
1.3 EUROPE – END OF YEAR EXTRAPOLATIONS
1.4 EUROPE – Q3/2017 MARKET ESTIMATE
1.5 EUROPE – UPCOMING MARKETS: SPAIN
2.1 GLOBAL – Q2/2017 INSTALLATIONS
2.2 GLOBAL – END OF YEAR EXTRAPOLATIONS
2.3 Global – Q3/2017 MARKET ESTIMATE
2.4 GLOBAL – LEADING MARKET - CHINA
3. CONCLUSIONS – FIVE TAKE AWAYS FROM Q2/2017
UPCOMING SOLARPOWER EUROPE EVENTS

3. 1.1 EUROPE - QUARTERLY PV INSTALLATIONS
In Europe, the second quarter 2017 was in absolute terms better than in previous years, but also relatively - showing a smaller difference with the first quarter than in 2015 and 2016.
© SolarPower Europe 2017

4. 1.1 EUROPE - QUARTERLY PV INSTALLATIONS W/O UK
Without the UK, as could be already seen in Q1/2017, solar power additions went up in Europe in Q2/2017 as well. This means the turnaround in European solar markets continues.
© SolarPower Europe 2017

5. 1.1 EUROPE - PV INSTALLATIONS SINCE Q1/2015
The annual installation patterns from previous years still hold true in 2017: A strong first quarter due to the UK’s FY ending and a slower second quarter. The good news: the difference between quarters has reduced considerably.
© SolarPower Europe 2017

6. 1.2 EUROPE – LEADING MARKETS: UNITED KINGDOM
UK – trend continues: While March showed the end of the FY spike, it was much lower (690 MW) than in the previous year. While 850 MW were installed in Q1 , it decreased to 48 MW in Q2. In the first two month of Q3, 23 MW were added
© SolarPower Europe 2017

7. 1.2 EUROPE – LEADING MARKETS: GERMANY
Germany – stronger YoY demand continues: After a slower January YoY, demand in all following months of 2017 was stronger than in At 489 MW, Q2 was significantly stronger than Q1 at 252 MW.
© SolarPower Europe 2017

8. 1.2 EUROPE – LEADING MARKETS: GERMANY
Germany – Rapid tariff decrease in solar tenders. Average awarded tariffs nearly halved in only 2.5 years.
© SolarPower Europe 2017

9. 1.2 EUROPE – LEADING MARKETS: ITALY
Italy – no fundamental changes: The trend in 2017 follows exactly the 2016 pattern but usually at lower levels. The only exception was again May, after a surge in ground-mounted installations (63 MW).
© SolarPower Europe 2017

10. 1.2 EUROPE – LEADING MARKETS: FRANCE
France – downturn stopped: In Q2 2017, France installed more solar than in any quarter since Q3/2015. The reason are the first installations under France’s multi-year investment programme (Plan de programmation pluriannuelle de l’Energie” (PPE)
© SolarPower Europe 2017

11. 1.2 LEADING MARKETS – THE NETHERLANDS
After a strong start into 2017, Netherlands continues on a high level as it is developing into a GW-size market.
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12. 1.2 LEADING MARKETS – THE NETHERLANDS
Most solar installations over 15 kW are built based on the SPE+ support scheme
The second round 2017 is currently taking place. The project realization period is 3 years, the budget €6 billion.
A big percentage of the residential market (around 45%) are so-called “woningcorporaties” (housing cooperatives). In 2018, there will be a new support scheme for this segment
© SolarPower Europe 2017

13. 1.3 EUROPE – EXTRAPOLATION ANNUAL
If solar demand in Europe in Q2 is extrapolated based on last year’s growth pattern, a total of 7.5 GW will be added in 2017, which would be 0.7 GW below our Q1 estimate.
© SolarPower Europe 2017

14. 1.3 EUROPE – EXTRAPOLATION CUMULATIVE
If solar demand in Europe in Q2 is extrapolated based on last year’s growth pattern, Europe’s cumulative installed solar capacity will be GW.
© SolarPower Europe 2017

15. 1.4 EUROPE – PRELIMINARY Q3 ESTIMATE
Q3/2017 is expected to be better than Q2, reaching similar levels as in Q1, even without the influence from the UK, based on preliminary analysis.
© SolarPower Europe 2017

16. Solar won almost 4 GW in the second renewable auction in Spain.
1.5 EUROPE– UPCOMING MARKETS: SPAIN
Solar won almost 4 GW in the second renewable auction in Spain.
© SolarPower Europe 2017

17. 2.1 GLOBAL - QUARTERLY PV INSTALLATIONS
The global solar market in Q2/2017 was strong - driven again mainly by China, which was responsible for more than half of worldwide installations.
© SolarPower Europe 2017

18. Even without China, Q2/2017 demand was higher 6% than in Q2/2016.
2.1 GLOBAL - QUARTERLY PV INSTALLATION W/O CHINA
Even without China, Q2/2017 demand was higher 6% than in Q2/2016.
© SolarPower Europe 2017

19. 2.1 GLOBAL - QUARTERLY PV INSTALLATIONS
Almost same Top3 in Q2: The second quarter was again clearly dominated by China (17.2 GW). This time the US secured the second rank (2.4 GW), ahead of India (1.8 GW).
© SolarPower Europe 2017

20. 2.2 GLOBAL – EXTRAPOLATION ANNUAL
If global solar demand in Q2 is extrapolated based on last year’s growth pattern, a total of around 98 GW will be added in 2017.
© SolarPower Europe 2017

21. 2.2 GLOBAL – EXTRAPOLATION CUMULATIVE
If global solar demand in Q2 is extrapolated based on last year’s growth pattern, the world’s cumulative installed solar capacity will be around 400 GW at the end of 2017.
© SolarPower Europe 2017

22. 2.3 GLOBAL – PRELIMINARY Q3 ESTIMATE
Unlike last year, the strong pull from China continued in Q3, which explains the large jump YoY.
© SolarPower Europe 2017

23. 2.4 GLOBAL – LEADING MARKET: CHINA
China’s NEA announced in July a target of nearly 87 GW of utility-scale PV installations between 2017 and 2020.
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24. 2.4 GLOBAL – LEADING MARKET: CHINA
China market continously grew each quarter in 2017 so far. Q3 is expected to reach even 17.6 GW. Though Q4 will likely be less strong, it is possible the market will be over 50 GW in 2017.
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25. 3. CONCLUSIONS: FIVE TAKE AWAYS FROM Q2/2017
China continues to perform beyond expectations and is clearly the main driver for global growth. Based on Q2Q3 installations, total additions will be very likely beyond 50 GW
Asia remains the main growth region for solar, with India establishing itself as a Top 3 market, although US was stronger than India in Q2
In Q2, solar demand in Europe was lower than in Q1 – as usual, but the gap is narrowing as the UK market dominance fades. YoY, Q2 was much larger
While global demand is stronger than originally expected in Q1 analysis, European market might grow less due to lack and high prices of solar modules
The strong pull from China could propel global demand for the first time to over 100 GW in 2017

26. 4-5 DECEMBER 2017 | MUNICH | GERMANY | BMW WORLD
Program topics:
Impact of digitalisation on solar and storage markets
New business models and sources of financing
How solar, storage and digitalisation can make consumers’ lives easier
Role of utilities in an energy system based on flexible renewable, storage & digitalisation
Regulatory drivers and barriers
Sector coupling: solar, storage, heat and electric mobility
Organisers:
Strategic Partners:

27. For more information contact: Michael Schmela m
For more information contact: Michael Schmela