1. Sait Bayrakdar, Philipp Lersch, Sergi Vidal & Rory Coulter
A longitudinal analysis of leaving home and entering the housing system in Britain, Germany and Australia
Sait Bayrakdar, Philipp Lersch, Sergi Vidal & Rory Coulter
ISA RC28 Spring Meeting, University of Cologne, 31/03/2017

2. Relevance
Housing outcomes as an important step of the transition to independent living for young adults
An important indicator of later life-outcomes
A significant factor influencing other life-course decisions such as partnership and fertility
An aspect of intergenerational transmission of disadvantage.

3. Relevance Recent changes to impact outcomes of millennials
Changes to housing market
Global Financial Crisis
Changes to life course events

4. Background Housing outcomes and home-leaving of young adults shaped by
individual characteristics and socio-economic position (Iacovou, 2010, Stone et al 2011; 2014)
Life events (Thomas and Mulder 2016, Stone et al, 2014)
high levels of intergenerational transmission of housing outcomes (Blaauboer, 2010)
macro-contextual characteristics

5. Background
Contextual factors are expected to affect housing destinations (Mulder et al., 2015, Priemus and Whitehead, 2014, Dewilde, 2017).
Differences in contextual settings are to create different patterns for housing destinations across countries.
Dual vs Unitary markets (financialization)
Tenure composition (provision of social housing)
Welfare and labour market policies

6. Background UK Germany Australia Housing market
high marketization; dual market, residual social housing sector, ideology of home ownership
High marketization; unitary market; renting as a viable option
High marketization; dual market; ideology of home ownership; high homeownership rate
Welfare systems
central role for free market
Relatively significant interference of state
Education and labour market
Weak or no arrangements for labour market transition; low level of labour market regulations
Transition to labour market policies; strong labour market regulations
Strong vocational track and transition to labour market policies

7. Research question
How does parental background influence the timing and housing outcomes of transitions out of the parental home in Britain, Germany and Australia?
Aim:
To explore the impact of parental characteristics with a comparative approach to understand the role of macro level factors such as housing market characteristics and welfare systems on housing transitions.
To discuss housing wealth as an important aspect of social stratification processes by illustrating housing outcome with empirical data.

8. Research question
How does parental background influence the timing and housing outcomes of transitions out of the parental home in Britain, Germany and Australia?
Focus:
18-34 year-old individuals living in parental home in Britain, Germany, and Australia
Looking at their personal and parental characteristics, their life events
Interpreting housing tenure outcomes with respect to the contextual differences across three countries

9. Data BHPS/UKHLS (UK), SOEP (Germany), HILDA (Australia)
From 2001 to 2014
Select sample members who were at the parental home at
UK: 9,086 (4,947 males, 4,139 females)
DE: 15,220 (8,544 males, 6,676 females)
AU: 10,213 (5,966males, 5,247 females)
Dependent variable: housing destination
Parental home vs transition to:
home ownership, private rental, social rental

10. Data Independent variables:
Personal characteristics: sex, age, country of birth, health, own child at home, new-born child, education, income,
Life events: partnership transition, main economic activity transition
Parental background: parental education, parental income, parental tenure, room stress
Other controls: previously left home, region, bhps/ukhls
EHA, multinomial logistic regression

11. Transition by destination
UK: 4,947 males; 4,139 females DE: 8,544 males; 6,676 females AU: 5,966 males; 5,247 females

12. UK Home ownership Social tenancy Private tenancy Male Female
Home ownership
Social tenancy
Private tenancy
Male
Female
Education (ref: higher sec.)
low sec. or lower
-0.168
-0.812
0.725*
-0.102
0.294
-0.216
vocational
0.557*
0.495+
-1.241
0.162
0.092
-0.136
degree
0.493*
0.383+
-0.305
0.114
0.708***
0.401*
Income (ref: low)
middle
0.1
-0.416
0.687
-0.647*
-0.049
-0.116
high
1.147**
0.942**
0.238
-1.053*
0.185
-0.039
Parental education (ref: no degree)
0.142
-0.322
0.811
0.278
0.199
0.463**
Parental income (ref: low)
0.097
-0.263
0.077
0.007
0.326+
0.287
0.442
0.314
-0.289
-0.642
0.623**
0.191
Parental tenure (ref: homeownership)
renting
-0.855**
-0.06
0.834**
0.828***
0.500**
0.218

13. Germany Home ownership Private tenancy Male Female
Home ownership
Private tenancy
Male
Female
Education (ref: higher sec.)
low sec. or lower
-0.538
-0.704
-0.191
-0.024
vocational
0.837
-0.157
0.467
-0.635
degree
0.016
0.295
0.560*
0.616**
Income (ref: low)
middle
-0.562
0.202
0.413+
0.525**
high
0.476
0.540
0.790***
0.671**
Parental education (ref: no degree)
0.508
0.027
0.522***
0.338**
Parental income (ref: low)
0.310
-0.008
0.052
-0.212
-0.283
0.012
0.345*
0.002
Parental tenure (ref: homeownership)
renting
0.170
-1.055*
0.374**
0.236*

14. Australia Home ownership Social tenancy Private tenancy Male Female
Home ownership
Social tenancy
Private tenancy
Male
Female
Education (ref: higher sec.)
low sec. or lower
0.088
0.122
-0.5
0.025
0.080
vocational
0.107
0.507 -1
-0.799
0.207
-0.098
degree
0.326
1.292***
***
0.939
0.527*
0.408*
Income (ref: low)
middle
0.172
0.550
-0.310
-0.538
0.466***
0.135
high
1.351***
1.570***
***
1.502
-0.062
Parental education (ref: no degree)
-0.142
0.006
1.049
-0.452
0.572***
0.123
Parental income (ref: low)
-0.181
-0.085
1.101*
0.262
0.157
0.281
-0.367
0.519
0.174
0.142
0.124
Parental tenure (ref: homeownership)
renting
-0.100
-0.073
1.164*
0.823
0.500***
0.375**

15. Trends for socio-economic status
Ownership UK
Germany
Australia
Education
+ for both
+ for women
Income
Social Rental
- for men
n/a
- for women
Private Rental
+ for men

16. Trends for parental background
Ownership UK
Germany
Australia
Parental education
Parental income
Parental tenure (owner)
+ for men
+ for women
Social Rental
n/a
+ for female
- for both
- for male
Private Rental
+ for both
- for men

17. Conclusions Effects of parental background:
Intergenerational continuation of tenure
Parental education and income has impact particularly on early transition to private rental
No significant effect on home ownership (probably partly because of low transition rates)
Country differences on gendered effects:
There are no strong differences in patterns across countries
Parental tenure has an effect for men in UK and for women in Germany on homeownership
Parental education has an effect for women in UK and for men in Australia

18. Remarks
Three destination models are not relevant to Germany, (and to some extent) to Australia.
Analysis for attrition in UK did not show any strong pattern.
The analysis for those observed first between age show similar results (checks for selection).

19. Acknowledgements Thank you! sb2152@cam.ac.uk
This research is supported by an Economic and Social Research Council Future Research Leaders award [ES/L /1]. Additional financial support has been provided by the Isaac Newton Trust.