1. Energy Research Institute National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine
Ukraine National Energy Current State and Modeling its Long-term Development
Ukrainian energy sector
- challenges & drivers of its development,
- possible long-term pathways, and
Long-term national energy development – methodological approaches and methods of mathematical modeling
A Unique Energy and Climate Policy in Open Energy Market: a year after COP 21
Sergii Shulzhenko, PhD, Chief of scientific department
25-th Energy Forum, Croatian Energy Day

2. Ukraine briefly
2015 Indicators: Population – 45 million;
GDP – 90 $ billion (181 in 2013); GNI per capita – 2620 US$ (3789 – in 2013);
Energy use – 2.5 toe/capita; Electric power consumption – 3.6MWh/capita; Export / Import (% GDP) – 53 / 55; High Tech Export – 6% of Export

3. Energy Research Institute National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine
Primary Energy Reserves
Energy Resource
World
Ukraine
Ukraine / World, %
Oil, mill ton
239360
206
0.09
Natural Gas, bill m3
186875
1094
0.59
Coal, bill ton, including:
891.5
56,7
6.36
- bituminous coal
403.2
39.3
9.75
NPP Net Installed Capacity, GW (IEA 2014): 1)USA – 99, 2)France – 63, 3)Japan – 42, 4)RusFed – 25,
5)China – 24, 6)South Korea – 21, 7)Germany – 14, 8)Canada – 14, 9)Ukraine – 13.84
Top 10 Producers, % of total DomesticElGen: 1) France – 78.4, 2)Ukraine – 48.6, 3)Sweeden – 42.3
Power Plant
Installed Capacity, GW
Electricity Generation, GW·hr
Thermal Power (Coal, NatGas, FuelOil)
34.26 (incl. off-line)
61.64
NPP
13.84
87.63
Hydro
4.69
6.81
Hydro Pumped Storage
1.51 PV
0.5
1.59
Wind
Biomass (mainly CHP)
0.17
Total
55.47
157.67
25-th Energy Forum, Croatian Energy Day

4. Energy Research Institute National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine
Energy Consumption in Ukraine 2013, thousand toe
Coal
Oil products
Natural Gas
Bio fuels
Electricity
Heat Energy
Industry
7447
1028
4360 38
5038
3951
Transport 12
8175
2303 42
747 -
Tertiary
113 89
567 25
2142
2808
Agriculture
1391
200 16
338
276
Household & Government etc
730 30
13513
996
3559
4667
Non energy use
384
556
3983
Total
8698
11275
24926
1118
11828
11702
Industry, %
85.6
9.1
17.5
3.4
42.6
33.8
Transport, %
0.1
72.5
9.2
3.8
6.3
Tertiary, %
1.3
0.8
2.3
2.2
18.1
24.0
Agriculture, %
12.3
1.4
2.9
2.4
Household & Government etc, %
8.4
0.3
54.2
89.1
30.1
39.9
Non energy use, %
4.4
4.9
16.0
100

5. PrimEnergProd (e.g. coal mining) and processing
Sustainable risk-free energy development: methodology for robust decisions finding
Interdependence and competition all with all:
intrasystem interdependence and competition among production/import, transformation, transportation, storage, distribution/export and end use technologies and energy products;
intersystem dependence and risk generation for stable existence and development of man-made and environmental subsystems: Energy – Ecology – Economy – Lend-use – Water supply and management – Climate change
Strategic Robust Decisions Finding taking into account adaptiveness and downscaling (for example: Strategic goal – cover electricity demand taking into account season load variations)
Water resources
Demand
Human life standards
PrimEnergProd (e.g. coal mining) and processing
Economy & Government
Climate Change
Lend Use

6. Institute of General Energy National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine
Levelized Cost of Electricity Production – calculated using diapasons of exogenous variables instead of exact input data
Constant expenses – depends from installed capacity (X)
Variable and O&M Costs – depend from power load during operation (f)
Operation time (could be stochastic)
Generating Power (could be stochastic)
For each technology installed capacity should be not less then actually used in each period of modeling
Generated Power should be absolutely equal to power demand of Integrated Energy System
The amount of Electricity produced should be not less the demand for electric energy

7. Institute of General Energy National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine
For each type of Power Plant the time of operation during the year (h) for each modeling period defined as constant (for example – 7000 for Ukrainian NPP at current state)
Typical Power Plant Generation Schedule during the typical day, % from installed Power (X)
Period of the day №1 №2 №3 №4
Work day, Base
100 75
Work day, Intermediate 85
Work day, Peak
Holyday, Base
Holyday, Intermediate
Holyday, Peak
25-th Energy Forum, Croatian Energy Day

8. Power Plant Life Cycle Expenses
— discounted cost;
— time of construction;
— life cycle period;
— time of commercial operation;
— time of decommissioning;
— discount (or interest rate);
— variable – depends from power load during operation (f);
— capital investment;
— O & M;
— interest returning;
— expenses (“+”) or income (“-”) during decommissioning.

9. Institute of General Energy National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine
To develop a plan about Power Sector development We should know current and future
input data, at least production cost of different technologies
But in real life We CAN’T predict input data both future and even current
Table - Percentage of financing during construction [IEA ElProdCost 2005]
Design, Equipment booking, manufacturing and shipment
Construction period
Final installation, staff training -6 -5 -4 -3 -2 -1
Canada - 8 22 29 21
12.5
7.5
USA 10 20
France
11.5
15.5 18 2
Germany 15 30 23
Japan 5
18.5
21.5
South Korea
3.8
12.2 24
37.5
2.5
Finland 28
Minimum
0 (3.8)
0 (2)
Maximum
25-th Energy Forum, Croatian Energy Day

10. Institute of General Energy National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine
Practical example for NPP
Capital investment
$/кW
2900
7200
Time of Commercial Operation
Years 50 60
Base of Plant
% / investment
0,75
0,8
Production Equipment
0,2
0,25
Personnel
Number pers / MWt
0,5
0,7
O & M
0,04
0,065
O & M increase during Commercial Operation
% / year
0,005
0,015
Yearly expenses for main equipment check out and fixing
0,05
0,075
Increase of expenses for main equipment check out and fixing
0,01
Cost of U3O8 mining
$/ кg U3O8 20
120
Change of Cost of U3O8 mining
0,0075
U conversion
$/ кg U 3 8
Change of U conversion
0,012
Enrichment
$/ kg U 80
Change of enrichment
0,02
0,03
Fuel assembly
$/ kg assembly
200
300
Change of fuel assembly
Cost of waste management
$/ MW
3000
4000
Cost of mid-term waste management
100
Change of Cost of mid-term waste management
Cost of final waste disposal
600
Mass of UO2 in assembly Kg
455,00
490,00
Number of assembly in reactor
number
163,00
Number of fuel assembly that are changes
Number
42,00
54,00
Time of fuel company
days / year
275
315
Load factor %
0,86
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11. Institute of General Energy National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine
$/ MWh
Minimum
51,42
Maximum
96,28
Average
71,43
Standard deviation
6,99
Correlation
0,995
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12. Projected Costs of Generating Electricity, 2010 Edition
Institute of General Energy National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine
Projected Costs of Generating Electricity, 2010 Edition
INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY
NUCLEAR ENERGY AGENCY
ORGANISATION FOR ECONOMIC CO-OPERATION AND DEVELOPMENT
25-th Energy Forum, Croatian Energy Day 12

13. Institute of General Energy National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine
Input data for Natural Gas production in Ukraine
Measure
Value
Minimum
Maximum
Number of wells
Number
2 – 5
20 – 30, in some case up to 100
Well deep m
1000 – 2000 
4500 – 5500 
Square of production field
km2
10 – 20
Average time of effective commercial production
Years
20 – 30 
50–60  and more
Cost of geological studies
USD mln
2.5 – 6
6 – 12
Cost of estimation of deposit
100 – 200
300 – 500
Cost of equipping production field
25 – 35
120 and more
Average production cost
USD / th m3 50
100
Results
Measure
Old fields
New fields
Production cost
USD / th m3
49.76
80.62
Price (15% IRR)
50.39
117.48
Production
bill m3 / year
13.00
5.00
Fixed cost % 57 65
Variable and O & M cost 43 35

14. Energy production-transportation-conversion-distribution-utilization
Institute of General Energy National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine
Energy production-transportation-conversion-distribution-utilization
Production A (mining)
Imported fuel A
Storage B (stock)
Transportation A
Storage A (Stock)
Transformation A->B
etc.
Transportation B
Distribution
End Use A
End Use B
25-th Energy Forum, Croatian Energy Day

15. Institute of General Energy National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine
25-th Energy Forum, Croatian Energy Day

16. Energy supply-demand model with energy security restrictions
Institute of General Energy National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine
Energy supply-demand model with energy security restrictions
(1)
(2)
(3)
(4)
(5)
(6)
Maximum fraction of imported fuel from single source;
minimal fraction of energy produced within the country;
balancing variables.
* - Ukraine Economy Security Calculation Method, adopted by President’s Order №1159/

17. GDP Forecast and Economy Structure
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
GDP, billion of USD, including:
73.3
85.5
104.0
126.5
151.7
171.6
Agriculture, Fishery …
10.3
12.5
15.2
18.3
21.9
24.7
Mining, Extraction …
4.1
4.0
4.3
4.9
4.6
5.0
Industry
10.4
11.3
12.0
13.1
15.0
17.0
Electricity, Heat, Natural Gas, Sanitary Water … supply & distribution
2.8
3.5
5.8
7.0
8.1
Transport
5.7
8.8
11.4
14.2
15.6
Other activity
40.0
47.2
59.0
73.0
88.9
101.2
GDP, %, including:
100.0
14.0
14.6
14.5
14.4
5.6
4.7
4.2
3.9
3.0
2.9
13.2
11.6
9.9
3.8
4.4
7.8
8.5
9.0
9.4
9.1
54.5
55.2
56.7
57.7
58.6
58.9

18. Generation development until 2040
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
Installed capacity, GW
37.1
48.0
51.9
52.8
59.2
Thermal Power Plants (incl. CHP), GW, incl:
15.6
23.5
26.8
27.1
32.7
- Biomass (mainly CHP)
0.2
0.3
0.4
Nuclear Power Plants
13.8
15.8
15.0
Hydro & Hydro Pumped Storage
6.6
7.4
8.6
9.1
9.5
Wind
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
Photo Voltaic
1.1
Electricity generation, TWh per year, incl.:
164.9
190.9
224.2
257.1
283.2
60.2
71.3
106.5
137.0
160.5
90.9
104.1
99.9
101.2
102.5
12.1
13.6
15.5
16.3
17.0
1.0
1.2
1.3
1.4
1.7
Investments, billion USD during period
4.4
21.5
13.1
16.5
10.4
Fuel consumption, gramm of coal equivalent per kWh generated
382.2
364.4
356.3
353.0
335.5
Fuel consumption at Thermal Power Plants, million ton of coal equivalent, incl:
22.8
25.8
37.7
48.1
53.5
Coal consumption, million ton of coal equivalent
19.2
21.2
32.5
41.7
45.9
Natural Gas consumption, million ton of coal equivalent
3.2
4.1
4.6
5.7
7.0
Emiision of SO2, thousand ton
780.1
265.7
191.3
81.5
87.4
Emiision of NOx, thousand ton
153.0
118.0
106.2
85.0
92.2
Air Pollution of partcular manner(ash), thousand of ton
141.2
88.0
25.4
13.4
14.4
GHG pollution, million ton
62.5
70.0
104.3
132.7
144.9

19. Results

20. Energy Research Institute National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine
Ukraine National Energy Current State and Modeling its Long-term Development
Achieving Low Emission Goals is required essential methodology development:
-nexus between energy and the environment, economic sectors and social sphere
uncertain future externalities, i.e.: regulatory and legal framework of energy markets, regulation of GHG emissions, possible changes in the efficiency of final energy consumption and its structure, operation modes of energy consumption, especially electricity etc
clear but intermittent energy (Wind, PV) – expenses for dispatch, low voltage grid renewabales integration into national level system
Integration of small to medium size storage capacities - electricity battery
LET’S SHARE OUR COMMON EXPERIENCE AND HELP EACH OTHER TO AVOID MISTAKES
A Unique Energy and Climate Policy in Open Energy Market: a year after COP 21
Sergii Shulzhenko, PhD, Chief of scientific department
25-th Energy Forum, Croatian Energy Day