1. Industrial Robots and the Metamorphosis of Work Irmgard Nübler International Labour Organisation
Prepared for the
International Symposium and Presentation of the Special Report
Robot-Lution
23 August 2017, Buenos Aires

2. My presentation
Automation, robots and the future of jobs – a dynamic process of creative destruction
Windows of opportunity for middle income countries – productive transformation
The future of work with robots is non-deterministic, it needs to be shaped – choices and strategies

3. I. Automation, robots and the future of jobs
Robots are diffusing into production processes in developed and developing countries and replacing jobs
New robots can perform wider range of manual and cognitive, routine and non-routine tasks
Robots are largely in industry, but increasingly in services
Increasing demand for robots as they become smaller, mobile and cheaper
Integrated into network of robots (industry 4.0) performing tasks in management, coordination, logistics

4. Robot Density across Countries in 2008 and 2014, High Density Countries (>0.5 in 2014)
Source: International Federation of Robots, 2016

5. Robot Density across Countries in 2008 and 2014, Low Density Countries (<0.5 in 2014)
Source: International Federation of Robots, 2016

6. Robots destroy jobs in the short term: Process innovation
Robots are on the rise and they will destroy jobs because robots are developed with the intention to replace workers in the production process.
Robots perform jobs
that are dirty, heavy and hazardous
at a higher quality, precision, efficiency and speed
at lower costs and higher productivity
In the short term, the installation of robots in existing industries will therefore always destroy jobs.

7. What about job creation? Product innovation & productive transformation
In the long term, robots will generate new production and job opportunities
Market adjustment – rising productivity, income, demand for existing domestic products
New capital goods industries – tech-industry, robots, software
Reduced working time, higher income and rise of leisure industry, travel, sports, and games
Rising demand for R&D
Changing consumer behaviour, customisation, craft and artisan

8. Change in robot density and decline in manufacturing employment, 2008-2014
Source: Trends in Econometric Model Database, ILO November 2016; IFR 2016

9. The challenge for middle income countries is to
II. Windows of opportunities for middle income countries to catch up and create jobs
The challenge for middle income countries is to
Diversify production structure
Increase sophistication and complexity of products for productivity and learning
Enter industries with high demand elasticities for domestic and foreign demand

10. Comparing Latin America and Asia
The narrative:
Asian countries:
entered emerging GVCs with manufacturing intermediates (diversification)
increased economic complexity
accumulated capabilities to innovate
Diversified into two robot-intensive industries and learned to compete – transport and electronic
South American countries:
supplied largely natural resources to GVCs
decreased economic complexity and de-industrialised.
Limited opportunities to develop capabilities to innovate and catch up in manufacturing
Developed only one robot-intensive industry- transport

11. Change in economic complexity in Latin American and Asian countries, 1998-2008.
Source: The Economic Observatory (2017), MIT Harvard University

12. Distribution of robot stocks across the robot-intensive industries in South America and South East Asia, (percentage)
Source: International Federation of Robotics, 2016

13. Change in manufacturing employment as a share of total employment, 2000-2015
Latin America (14.7 to 11.7)
Asia (13.4 to 13.3)
Source: Trends Econometric Model database, ILO November 2016

14. III. The future of work needs to be shaped
Technological change is not falling from heaven but is the result of deliberate research. Responds to economic, social and political demand. Not deterministic.
The dynamics of innovation and employment is a non-linear process of creative destruction.
Transition into new industries and products (the job-creating phase) needs to be shaped by new societal and political choices. Societies need to learn to exploit new opportunities.

15. III. The future of work needs to be shaped (Continued)
In developed and developing countries governments and societies need to develop strategies of how to translate the new wave of robotisation into a future of work we want.
Creating a new societal consensus on the way forward and the new capabilities for job-creating productive transformation are central in this strategy.

16. Thank you
Irmgard Nübler Research Department International Labour Organisation Geneva Skype: Irmgard.nubler Twitter: IrmgardNubler