1. Macro Outlook

2. Brief Macro Outlook – October
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Brief Macro Outlook – October

3. Federal Reserve Interest rates Labour market
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Federal Reserve
Interest rates
Labour market
FX – Interest rates, retail sales, Industrial Production.
Outlook
Is this bull run coming to an end?

4. ECB Inflation pick up Current monetary policy stance
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ECB
Inflation pick up
Current monetary policy stance
Future? Predict aggressively loose monetary policy finally to lead to a pick-up in Eurozone Inflation by the end of the year.
Pick up in the euro

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Germany
Remains economic powerhouse of Europe with domestic demand driving growth
Tight labour market to pass through to wages and consumer
Data has not been hectic – PMIs falling, Industrial production
Merkel to announce in December whether to run for chancellor, populist AfD since gained support causing potential political headwinds

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France
Inflation pressures remain subdued, oil price should see an uptick
Despite one-off events, PMIs up in 3/4 sectors restoring of confidence, including services sector (70% of GDP)
Dire labour market conditions % unemployment just below 18 year high.

7. Britain GDP slowing BoE Monetary policy stance
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Britain
GDP slowing
BoE Monetary policy stance
GBP falls to 31-year low, series of depreciations
FTSE 100 value, vary of FTSE 250 companies
Data has been positive – Retail, manufacturing and services

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Switzerland
Maintaining an expansionary monetary policy, deposit rate -0.75
Inflation forecasts trimmed back – 0.3% – 0.2% in 2017, 0.9% - 0.6% in 2018
The value of the Swiss Franc has held steady YTD.

9. Commodities Oil Production cut raises prices Not overly bullish – why?
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Commodities
Oil
Production cut raises prices
Not overly bullish – why?
Gold
Gradual softening since Brexit vote
Trump and U.S. interest rates