1. Cliff Brewis
Vice President Operations
Dodge Data & Analytics

2. U.S. Macroeconomic Outlook
The U.S. economy has performed in a conservative range since the recession. Do we expect that to change?
GDP Pattern:
History Forecast
+1.7% % % % %
Significance of Employment Growth and Productivity
Trump Impact:
Stimulate the Economy:
Deregulation
Affordable Care Act
Tax Cuts
Infrastructure
Area of Concern :
Trade War: Mexico & China
Budget Deficit
Distractions
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3. U.S. Macroeconomic Outlook
For consumption to continue and employment growth to slow gradually, wages need to increase.
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4. U.S. Macroeconomic Outlook
Increased Federal spending already locked in
Fixing America’s Surface Transportation (FAST) Act
Enacted on December 4.
$305 billion over a five-year period – highways, $230 bil.;
public transit, $61 bill., Amtrak, $10 bil., safety programs, $5 bil.
Fiscal 2016 Federal Appropriations
Raises federal-aid obligation ceiling 5% to $42.4 billion
Raises Federal Transit Admin.’s budget 8% to $11.8 billion.
FAA Airport Improvement grants held at $3.4 billion
GSA’s construction account tripled to $1.6 billion
VA major construction account doubled to $1.2 billion
Corps of Engineers civil works acct. raised 10% to $6 billion.
Water Resources Development Act ($10.3 bil. +)
Infrastructure plans
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5. Infrastructure Considerations
Potential for Consensus but framework is not clear
Current Status
Highway Trust Fund Operating at a Deficit
Consensus: Infrastructure Under funded
Trump Plan
$1 Trillion program
$200 Billion Public Contribution
80+% Tax Reductions
Reduced Lending Costs
Revenue Sources
Offset by Payroll Taxes
Local Funding
75% of Current funding from State
Impact of Tax Plan on Muni Bonds
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6. New Mexico Gross Domestic Product
By the end of 2016, NM was still showing declines in GDP. There was an expectation of a modest increase in 2017.
Issues:
Out migration
Urban vs. Rural
Oil Prices Stabilizing
Public Funding
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7. U.S. Macroeconomic Outlook
New Mexico unemployment rate is 6.4% of a point better than in January 2017.
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8. New Mexico: Tax Revenue
2018 Budget was a difficult process
Reached 2018 Agreement
Severance Bond Offset
Threat to Education
Suspend Infrastructure
Reduce Rainy Day Fund
Fed Cuts to Dept. of Energy

9. New Mexico: Single Family
Conservative increase in housing since recession.
‘$000.00

10. New Mexico: Multi Family
Urban areas are growing and demanding more housing.
‘$000.00

11. New Mexico: Highways
Expect modest gains from Highway Fund.
‘$000.00

12. New Mexico: Highways
Expect modest gains from Highway Fund.

13. New Mexico: Water
Passage of the Water Resources bill is having an impact.
‘$000.00

14. New Mexico: Water
Funding is flowing to water related projects.

15. New Mexico: Energy, Power Gas
Decline from prior year.
‘$000.00

16. New Mexico: Energy Power Gas
Decline from prior year. .

17. New Mexico: Total Construction

18. QUESTIONS? Cliff Brewis V P Operations Dodge Data & Analytics
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19. Cliff Brewis
Vice President Operations
Dodge Data & Analytics