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The Long Island Foreclosure Crisis
Melville, NY March 5, 2013 Stabilizing the communities most impacted by foreclosures in Nassau and Suffolk Counties Final March 4 11:00 am
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Purpose of Analysis Pinpoint communities affected by ongoing foreclosure crisis, particularly at risk of . . . lost wealth lost tax base destabilization Lay out strategies to address threats to stability in these communities
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Today’s presentation will. . .
Start with a summary of “Findings” and “Recommendations” Map the NY foreclosure crisis, particularly on Long Island Examine home purchase lending historically and currently Show overlays of foreclosures, lending and minority communities at zip code and census tract data levels Identify the hardest hit communities as determined by our “Impact Score” Conclude with a discussion of three broad strategy recommendations
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FINDING: Foreclosures are widespread but many communities have disproportionate concentrations
Foreclosures occur in all of Long Island’s cities, towns, villages and hamlets, but . . . Both Nassau and Suffolk Counties have numerous areas with concentrations of foreclosures -- much higher than the rest of each county. We especially need to take steps to stabilize these impacted areas
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FINDING: The most impacted areas have seen reduced lending, threatening economic recovery
The areas that can be identified as “impact areas” from the foreclosure crisis have also seen large declines in home purchase lending from 2006 to 2010. Although foreclosures have increased the need for more home purchase financing, less financing is available. The result? A “double-whammy.”
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FINDING: Foreclosures are disproportionately hurting Long Island’s minority communities
Areas with high foreclosure concentrations and low lending levels are most often areas of high African American and Latino homeownership. The crisis is not only impacting the households actually in foreclosure, but also the majority of African American and Latino homeowners in each county. The foreclosure crisis raises a significant threat to “asset wealth” and economic vitality of these minority communities.
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RECOMMENDATIONS: Limit the damages to communities from concentrated foreclosures by…
Keeping owners in their homes or keeping properties otherwise continuously occupied. Assuring maintenance of properties in order to preserve the tax base and mitigate damage to municipalities. Ensuring economic justice for minority communities by acknowledging disparate impact and taking steps to preserve “asset wealth.”
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Sources of Data Analyzed
NYS Dept. of Financial Services 90-day Pre-Foreclosure Filing Notices (“90-day PFF Notices”) Home Mortgage Disclosure Act (HMDA) home purchase lending data From for the charts From 2006 & 2010 for the maps 2010 Census homeowner data by race and ethnicity NY Federal Reserve Bank delinquency and foreclosure data Sales price data from City-Data.com
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Each Database Separately Provides the
Reliability of Data Sources and Methodology NY Fed and NYS DFS Data are Consistent with Each Other at Zip Code Levels Each Database Separately Provides the Same Picture of Areas of Foreclosure Concentrations
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Current Status of New York’s Foreclosure Crisis
NY is not yet near the end of its foreclosure crisis (differing from other areas of the country) Our current crisis is due more to economic downturn and loss of income, rather than the housing boom and subprime bust Foreclosures are slow to make their way through the legal system Lenders are not triggering settlement conferences, adhering to conference requirements, or prosecuting cases post-settlement conference to judgment and sale
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Most “90-Day Pre-Foreclosure Filing (PFF) Notices” are Concentrated in New York’s Urban and Population Centers (January – June 2012) Rochester Buffalo Syracuse Albany NYC Metro Area and Long Island 90-Day PFF Notice totals are presented by zip code and are calculated from month by month datasets provided by the New York State Department of Financial Services. Map © Empire Justice Center, 2012.
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Over 25% of NY Homeowners at Risk of Foreclosure Live on Long Island
159, day PFF Notices were sent in the state in the first half of 2012: 25.7% (40,915) of those were from Long Island: 10.2 % were from Nassau County (16,175) 15.5 % were from Suffolk County (24,740) 27.1% were from New York City 47.2% were from the rest of the state
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“90-Day PFF Notices” Distribution in the NYC Metro Area, Including Long Island (January – June 2012)
90-Day Notice totals are presented by zip code and are calculated from month by month datasets provided by the New York State Department of Financial Services. Map © Empire Justice Center, 2012.
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Long Island Foreclosures: The Most Impacted Areas:
To see the relationship of lending to foreclosures and the impact on minority communities, we’ll first take a look at how declines in lending relate to areas with high numbers of foreclosures. In the slides that follow, we’ll describe how we use an “impact score” to identify and rank the areas hardest hit by foreclosures (shown in red) in each county and then compare each zip code’s race and ethnicity demographics.
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Home Purchase Lending – Current low levels indicate difficulties in absorbing foreclosed properties as they come onto the market From 2006 to 2011, home purchase lending declined by 60% in Nassau County. . . and by 70% in Suffolk County
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Home Purchase Lending Declined Much More in Some Communities Than in Others
Declines occurred in many of the same communities targeted by predatory lenders which resulted in high levels of high-cost or subprime loans. These communities were disproportionately impacted by the first, as well as the second, wave of foreclosures. We’ll see this in detail in our comparisons of Home purchase lending by census tract for 2006 to 2010 in Nassau and Suffolk Lending declines and the distribution of 90 Day PFF Notices
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HIGH COST HOME PURCHASE LENDING WAS PREVALENT IN SEVERAL SOUTHWESTERN NASSAU COUNTY COMMUNITIES IN 2006 In parts of central and western Hempstead, over 60% of conventional home purchase loans made were high-cost loans (see circled areas).
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MANY NASSAU COUNTY COMMUNITIES HAD SUBSTANTIALLY LOWER LEVELS OF HOME PURCHASE LENDING IN 2010 THAN IN 2006 Home purchase lending was between % lower in 2010 than in 2006 in many neighborhoods. Several areas with high levels of high cost lending in 2006 had substantially lower levels of lending (see circled areas). Green tracts = lending INCREASES. Red and dark reddish-brown tracts = greatest lending DECREASES.
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Red and dark reddish-brown = tracts with greatest lending decreases.
Zip codes with high densities of pre-foreclosure notices closely coincide with census tracts having the highest declines in home purchase lending. Yellow dots are 90-Day PFF Notices dispersed by zip code (one dot = one notice) Red and dark reddish-brown = tracts with greatest lending decreases. 90-Day Notice totals are presented by zip code and are calculated from month by month datasets provided by the New York State Department of Financial Services. Map © Empire Justice Center, 2012.
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A CLOSER LOOK AT SOUTHWEST PORTION OF NASSAU COUNTY
Notice that many of the census tracts showing the greatest declines in lending are also those with the highest density of 90-Day PFF Notices. 90-Day Notice totals are presented by zip code and are calculated from month by month datasets provided by the New York State Department of Financial Services. Map © Empire Justice Center, 2012.
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TO IDENTIFY THE COMMUNITIES MOST AFFECTED
USING AN “IMPACT SCORE” TO IDENTIFY THE COMMUNITIES MOST AFFECTED You can’t compare the impact on neighborhoods simply by looking at the number of foreclosure notices in a zip code because zip codes vary too much in size and housing types.
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COMPARING ZIP CODES VOLUME – RATE – CONCENTRATION –
To compare zip codes, we looked at three key factors: VOLUME – What was the number of 90 Day PFF notices in the zip code? RATE – How many PFF notices were there per 1000 housing units? (looking at owner-occupied units with mortgages) CONCENTRATION – How close are the imminent foreclosures to each other? That is, what is the number of notices per square mile in each zip code? Using these three factors we derived an “IMPACT SCORE” for each zip code. That score gives us an “apples to apples” measure to compare one zip code to another.
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Identifying and Describing Disproportionate Impact
In the analysis that follows we apply measures frequently used in disproportionate impact litigation including identification of areas that are “majority-minority” -- more than half minority, or “disproportionately minority” -- a greater minority population than the county as a whole
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Nassau County – 11 of the Top 15 ‘Most Impacted’ Areas Are Disproportionately Minority
“Majority-Minority” zip codes are shown in red. Rank By Impact Score Locality # 90-Day Notices % of County’s Notices in Zip Code 1 Hempstead 1034 6.0% 2 Elmont 926 5.4% 3 Roosevelt 506 3.0% 4 Valley Stream (north) 793 4.6% 5 Freeport 903 5.3% 6 Uniondale 579 3.4% 7 Baldwin 730 4.3% 8 Levittown 706 4.1% 9 Westbury 700 10 West Hempstead 441 2.6% 11 Valley Stream (south) 290 1.7% 12 Hicksville 483 2.8% 13 Long Beach 429 2.5% 14 Oceanside 405 2.4% 15 Franklin Square 276 1.6% TOTAL: 9,201 53.7% These 15 zip codes, out of all 66 zip codes in the county, account for 53.7% of the 90-Day PFF Notices sent in Nassau County in the first half of 2012.
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% Owners Who Are Minority
Conversely, only 4 of the 15 Most Impacted Have a Minority Concentration Below that of the County Rank By Impact Score Locality # 90-Day Notices % Owners Who Are Minority [County Overall = 20.7%] 1 Hempstead 1034 79.4% 2 Elmont 926 65.6% 3 Roosevelt 506 94.5% 4 Valley Stream (north) 793 48.6% 5 Freeport 903 54.9% 6 Uniondale 579 81.8% 7 Baldwin 730 40.4% 8 Levittown 706 13.7% 9 Westbury 700 39.0% 10 West Hempstead 441 32.2% 11 Valley Stream (south) 290 27.1% 12 Hicksville 483 22.4% 13 Long Beach 429 8.8% 14 Oceanside 405 7.0% 15 Franklin Square 276 12.4% TOTAL: 9,201 “Majority-Minority” zip codes are shown in red. : Zip codes with a minority population below the county’s overall minority percentage (20.7%) are shown with a blue background – only FOUR of the FIFTEEN most impacted.
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Rankings are based upon an “Impact Score”
Foreclosures Are A Problem Everywhere With The Top 15 Impacted Areas Mostly in Southern and Southwestern Nassau County FRANKLIN SQUARE 9. WESTBURY 12. HICKSVILLE 8. LEVITTOWN 2. ELMONT 10. WEST HEMPSTEAD 1. HEMPSTEAD 6. UNIONDALE 3. ROOSEVELT 4. VALLEY STREAM (north) 11. VALLEY STREAM (south) Rankings are based upon an “Impact Score” 5. FREEPORT LONG BEACH 7. BALDWIN OCEANSIDE Map © Empire Justice Center, 2012.
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RACE AND ETHNICITY OF ALL COUNTY HOMEOWNERS
Black and Latino = 14.7% Nassau County: White – % Black – % Latino – % Asian – % Based on 357,412 total homeowners NASSAU COUNTY Black and Latino = 12.9 % Suffolk County: White – % Black – % Latino – % Asian – % Based on 393,616 total homeowners SUFFOLK COUNTY
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Disparate Impact on Minority Communities
Nassau County – Disparate Impact on Minority Communities To identify the areas of minority concentration in relation to the area with the highest impact scores, we’ll switch from this “dot dispersion” map to a map showing the top 15 impacted areas in red, and add “pies” to show homeownership race and ethnicity . Least Impacted 2nd Least Impacted 2nd Most Impacted Most Impacted Zip Code Impact Rankings: Asian, non- Hispanic White, non-Hispanic Black, non-Hispanic Hispanic (any race) Pie Slices Legend:
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Nassau County – Disparate Impact:
Most Notices are in Minority Communities 17, Day PFF Notices were sent in Nassau County in the first half of 2012 15 of 66 zip codes account for 53.7% of those notices 74.5% of all of the county’s Black and Hispanic homeowners reside in those Top 15 most impacted zip codes In contrast, only 26.8% of the White, non-Hispanic homeowners live in those zip codes
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Nassau County – Disparate Impact:
“Majority-Minority” Zip Codes Are Impacted the Most The top six impact areas are also the top six zip codes when ranked by the percentages of minorities in the whole county. Five of the top six most impacted zip codes are “majority minority” That’s ALL of the “majority-minority” zip codes in the entire county. The sixth is nearly a majority-minority zip code (with 48.6% minority). Four of the top six zip codes are 65% to 94.5% “minority.” We estimate that nearly 90% (88.8%) of the Black and Latino households in Nassau County that received 90-Day PFF notices live in these six zip codes.
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Nassau County – Disparate Impact:
Nearly ALL Black Homeowners Live in Impacted Areas Looking at Black Homeowners alone . . . 87.1% of all Black homeowners in Nassau County live in only 10 of the top 11 impacted zip codes. In contrast, only 11.9% of the White, non-Hispanic homeowners live in those same ten zip codes. A Black homeowner is over 7 times more likely than a White, non-Hispanic homeowner to live in one of these ten zip codes.
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Sales Prices: Foreclosure Impact in Nassau County
The “Majority-Minority” Zip Codes (shown in red) have the greatest declines in prices. The price decline in Nassau County was only 12% countywide. All 15 most impacted zip codes saw declines exceeding the county level. Ten zip codes saw declines over twice that rate. Zip Code Post Office Name % Decline in Sales Price [2nd Qtr 2007 to 2nd Qtr 2012] % Owners Who Are Minority [County Overall = 20.7%] 1 11550 Hempstead 37.4 % 79.4% 2 11003 Elmont 32.6 % 65.6% 3 11575 Roosevelt 33.6 % 94.5% 4 11580 Valley Stream (north) [48.6% minority] 27.0 % 48.6% 5 11520 Freeport 54.9% 6 11553 Uniondale 38.1 % 81.8% 7 11510 Baldwin 28.8 % 40.4% 8 11756 Levittown 21.6 % 13.7% 9 11590 Westbury 27.2 % 39.0% 10 11552 West Hempstead 23.2 % 32.2% 11 11581 Valley Stream (south) 27.6 % 27.1% 12 11801 Hicksville 21.3 % 22.4% 13 11561 Long Beach 25.5 % 8.8% 14 11572 Oceanside 18.3 % 7.0% 15 11010 Franklin Square 20.2 % 12.4% Zip Codes with a minority population below the county overall minority percentage are shown with a blue background – generally the smallest declines in sales prices of the top 15.
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Declines in Sales Prices Parallel Impact Scores, Not Number of Notices
Nassau County – Declines in Sales Prices Parallel Impact Scores, Not Number of Notices Number of 90 Day Notices in Zip Code
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Taking a look at Suffolk County . . .
Distribution of “90-Day PFF Notices” in the NYC Metro Area, including Long Island (January – June 2012) 90-Day Notice totals are presented by zip code and are calculated from month by month datasets provided by the New York State Department of Financial Services. Map © Empire Justice Center, 2012.
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The slides that follow identify Suffolk County’s most impacted zip codes and then examine each zip code’s race and ethnicity demographics. First, we see both Nassau and Suffolk counties. The most impacted zip codes are shown in red, and the next most impacted zip codes shown in a lighter color: To appreciate the conditions that accompanied the rise in foreclosures we’ll once again take a look at how declines in lending relate to the areas with the highest foreclosure impact . . .
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HIGH COST HOME PURCHASE LENDING WAS PREVALENT IN SEVERAL SOUTHWESTERN SUFFOLK COUNTY COMMUNITIES IN 2006 In the central parts of the Town of Islip and in two areas of the Town of Babylon, over 60% of the conventional home purchase loans made in 2006 were high-cost loans.
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Most Suffolk County neighborhoods saw
51-100% fewer home purchase loans in 2010 than in 2006 Only five areas, in green, had the same or more lending in 2010 than in 2006, and only 13 had 1-25% fewer loans. The bright red and dark reddish-brown tracts had the greatest lending DECREASES. Note by the yellow circles that the three areas with high levels of high cost lending in 2006 had dramatically lower levels of lending in 2010.
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Many Neighborhoods With High Numbers of Foreclosures in Saw Declines in Total Home Purchase Lending Between 2006 and 2010 Yellow dots are 90-Day PFF Notices dispersed by zip code (one dot = one notice) High foreclosure zip codes largely coincide with the census tracts with substantial declines in total home purchase lending shown in bright red and dark red. (The pattern is somewhat less pronounced in the eastern parts of the county). 90-Day PFF Notice totals are presented by zip code and are calculated from month by month datasets provided by the New York State Department of Financial Services. Map © Empire Justice Center, 2012.
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Also, note the high percentages of Latino Owners in THREE of the
Here the dots show the volume of 90-Day PFF notices in first half of 2012 and the “pies” show the race and ethnicity of the homeowners in each zip code. There are only three “majority-minority” zip codes in Suffolk County. They score as the top three most impacted zip codes by a significant margin. 1 2 Pie Slice Legend 3 5 Also, note the high percentages of Latino Owners in THREE of the TOP FIVE zip codes. Number rankings are based upon an “Impact Score”.
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Suffolk County – Disparate Impact
ALL ‘Minority’ Zip Codes Are Highly Impacted To identify the areas of minority concentration in relation to the highest impact areas, we’ll switch from the “dot dispersion” maps to one showing the impacted areas in red and adding “pies” to show homeowner race and ethnicity . . . Least Impacted 2nd Least Impacted 2nd Most Impacted Most Impacted Zip Code Impact Rankings: Asian, non- Hispanic White, non-Hispanic Black, non-Hispanic Hispanic (any race) Pie Slices Legend: .
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Suffolk County – Disparate Impact
Half of Minority Owners Are in the 10 Most Impacted Areas 26, Day PFF Notices were sent in Suffolk County in the first half of 2012 10 of 94 zip codes in the county account for 34.5% of those notices Those “top 10” zip codes (ranked using the race-neutral “impact score”) include: 49.3% of all Black and Hispanic homeowners in the county, but in contrast only 10.9% of the White, non-Hispanic homeowners
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Suffolk County – Disparate Impact
Top 3 “Minority” = Top 3 Most Impacted Central Islip, Brentwood and Wyandanch are the only three zip codes in Suffolk County that are “majority minority” Those three zip codes rank as the TOP THREE most impacted zip codes using the race-neutral “impact score” Two thirds of all Black and Latino homeowners in Suffolk County live in the top 19 zip codes (out of 94) ranked for foreclosure impact.
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Suffolk County – Disparate Impact
Black Owners vs. White Owners: 27% vs. 1.5% Looking at Black Homeowners alone . . . 27% of all Black homeowners in Suffolk County live in the top 3 (out of 94) zip codes In contrast, only 1.5% of the White, non-Hispanic homeowners live in those same three zip codes A Black homeowner is 18 times more likely than a White, non-Hispanic homeowner to live in one of these top three impacted areas.
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Suffolk County – The 19 Zip Codes (out of all 94) with the greatest foreclosure impact account for nearly half (48.7%) of the 90-Day PFF Notices sent in the first half of 2012: Rank by Impact Score Zip Code Post Office Name # of 90 Day Notices % County’s Notices in Zip 1 11722 Central Islip 931 3.6% 2 11717 Brentwood 1326 5.1% 3 11798 Wyandanch 489 1.9% 4 11967 Shirley 822 3.1% 5 11706 Bay Shore 1354 5.2% 6 11950 Mastic 526 2.0% 7 11951 Mastic Beach 472 1.8% 8 11701 Amityville 555 2.1% 9 11729 Deer Park 581 2.2% 10 11726 Copiague 366 1.4% 11 11763 Medford 714 2.7% 12 11727 Coram 645 2.5% 13 11757 Lindenhurst 804 14 11704 West Babylon 15 11784 Selden 524 16 11772 Patchogue 809 17 11720 Centereach 570 18 11789 Sound Beach 209 0.8% 19 11703 North Babylon 337 1.3% TOTAL 12,748 48.7%
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Suffolk County – The Highest Impact Zip Codes Suffered the Largest Declines in Sales Prices The price decline in Suffolk County was 20% countywide. All 19 of the most impacted zip codes saw declines exceeding the county level. Seven of these zip codes saw declines over twice that amount. Rank by Impact Score Zip Code Post Office Name % Decline in Sales Price [2nd Qtr 2007 to 2nd Qtr 2012] % Owners Who Are Minority [County Overall = 15.3%] 1 11722 Central Islip 42.6% 63.0% 2 11717 Brentwood 43.3% 73.9% 3 11798 Wyandanch 66.7% 82.5% 4 11967 Shirley 33.2% 16.4% 5 11706 Bay Shore 31.2% 38.0% 6 11950 Mastic 63.6% 20.4% 7 11951 Mastic Beach 48.7% 15.0% 8 11701 Amityville 40.0% 43.9% 9 11729 Deer Park 25.0% 22.0% 10 11726 Copiague 38.7% 33.4% 11 11763 Medford 30.3% 21.2% 12 11727 Coram 20.1% 13 11757 Lindenhurst 26.1% 9.8% 14 11704 West Babylon 25.4% 20.8% 15 11784 Selden 54.3% 14.0% 16 11772 Patchogue 25.6% 14.2% 17 11720 Centereach 35.0% 14.1% 18 11789 Sound Beach GAIN: 37.5% 5.1% 19 11703 North Babylon 26.7% 15.2% [County Overall: 20%]
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The continuing threat of the foreclosure crisis. . .
NUMBERS OF HOMES AT RISK OF DISTRESS AS A RESULT OF FORECLOSURE
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Two Scenarios of “At Risk” Properties:
We estimate the number of homes at risk for distress and even potential vacancy for Nassau and Suffolk Counties using two different hypothetical scenarios. Even in the best case scenarios, loan modifications alone will not solve the problem of vacant or distressed properties in the future.
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Scenarios after homeowner receives 90-day PFF notice:
Loan modified, homeowner remains The top scenario assumes mods for 50% of homeowners The bottom scenario assumes mods for 30% of homeowners Home sold and occupied (private sale/short sale or deed in lieu) Both scenarios assume 50% of home purchase loans made in 2011 were for these types of sales Home remains at risk of distress (i.e. foreclosure filed/pending, owner walks away, cash investor buys but does not maintain)
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In these scenarios, Nassau County will have between 12,500 – 19,000 properties in jeopardy of vacancy or other forms of distress These predictions are based on Empire Justice Center’s estimate that 32, day PFF notices were sent out in Nassau County in 2012.
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For Suffolk County, the outlook is even more grim – in these scenarios, there will be between 21,000 – 31,000 properties in jeopardy of vacancy or other forms of distress These predications are based on Empire Justice Center’s estimate that 49, day PFF notices were sent out in Suffolk County in 2012.
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We cannot ignore the problem any longer . . .
Thousands more foreclosures are in the pipeline. Tens of thousands of delinquencies and foreclosures were predicted, that’s what we’re seeing, but the end is not yet in sight. Costs, especially in impacted areas, will be enormous. The damage is everywhere but exponential in “impacted areas.” Lost property values alone will be in billions, not millions, of dollars. The harm to African American and Latino communities is devastating African Americans and Latinos overwhelmingly live in impacted areas so the crisis threatens to decimate their asset wealth and economic stability.
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Each dimension of the problem needs appropriate strategies:
Across all areas of Long Island -- Additional measures and assistance are needed to keep families in their homes and housing occupied. In impacted areas -- Targeted actions must be taken to stabilize neighborhoods and preserve value. In African American and Latino communities -- Homeowners and other residents must be assured effective compliance with fair housing and fair lending laws.
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1. Keep owners in their homes
Increase and expedite loan modifications Allow principal write-downs Improve servicing and reduce application timelines Prosecute foreclosure cases, keep properties out of “legal limbo” and negotiate settlement conferences in good faith Ensure that direct services (counseling/legal) match the scale of foreclosures, particularly in areas with high concentrations Develop strategies to keep families in their homes during, and after, the foreclosure process Public awareness around foreclosure “Continued Occupancy” initiatives
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2. Limit damage to communities and preserve tax base
Be pro-active on vacancies; develop strategies to . . . Address inventory of current vacancies Prevent numbers from growing Improve ongoing property maintenance by developing . . . “Property control” strategies for foreclosures in “legal limbo” Enforcement tools for municipalities Regulations for non-occupant investor purchases. Make credit available to all qualified buyers Advocate for adequate CRA funding and investments Monitor and address displacement and homelessness
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3. Ensure economic justice in minority communities and protect their “asset wealth.”
Hold banks accountable – use fair lending and fair housing laws, especially in light of HUD’s new “disparate impact” rule (February 2013) Increase Community Reinvestment Act (CRA) investments to stabilize low and moderate income communities disparately impacted Design strategies to meet needs of minority communities Develop policies to address racial and ethnic disparities (including proactive monitoring to ‘affirmatively further’ fair housing)
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Contributors: Michael L. Hanley, Esq. Ruhi Maker, Esq.
Ruhi Maker, Esq. Barbara Van Kerkhove, Ph.D.
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