1. Terrorism in Afghanistan: A Nuisance for Inter-regional Connectivity
Masood-ur-Rehman-Khattak
Lecturer
Department and politics and international relations
International Islamic university Islamabad.
November 09,10, 2016.

2. Introduction
The Central Asian region is placed in a strategic position because of its historical significance.
This area served as the crossroads of many civilizations for centuries.
Mackinder called this region as Pivot area where as Brzezinski regarded this region as a Grand Chess Board, where major powers are competing for influence.
Today, Central Asian region is again witnessing renewed great game with new actors and new motivations.

5. Mackinder
Brzezinski
Grand Chess Board

6. Proven Oil in Caspian Region : 10 BBL Possible Oil Reserves 233 BBL
Oil BBL
Gas- 15-TCF
Proven Gas Reserves- 293 TCF
Oil- 2.3.BBL
Gas TCF
Gas TCF
Oil BBL

7. 94% Dependence by 2030 on imported oil and gas
6000km- border
Political Hegemony EU
94% Dependence by 2030 on imported oil and gas
3000km-border
1.39-Billion .pop
$11-Tri-Economy
Security-ETIM
America
NDN
Strategic Space
Counter Terrorism
TAPI
CASA-1000 Trade and Investment

8. China-CAS Trade- $50 billion
$64 billion- Investment
China-CAS Trade- $50 billion

13. The Threat Matrix in Afghanistan
Afghanistan is passing through, toughest phase of its history.
The security situation in Afghanistan is terrible and getting worse.
The Afghan National Security Forces- (ANSF) are unable to cope up with these emerging threats posed by the Afghan Taliban and other terrorist groups.

14. 22,634- Terrorism related incidents in 2015
Kunduz
Kunar
Kabul
Nangarhar
Ghazni
Kandahar
Helmand

15. Threat Matrix in Afghanistan
Afghan Taliban
Fragile ANSF
IS-KP
India-Pak- proxy war
Drug/ Trafficking
Pak-Afghan Discord

16. Afghan Taliban and their affiliates
Haqqani Network
4,000+
Afghan Taliban
60,000+
Al-Qaeda

17. Afghan Taliban $2-billion Assets Highly Organized Motivated Robust
Well Equipped
Afghan Taliban

18. The Khurassan Province- (The IS- Factor)
The Islamic State after territorial gains in Iraq and Syria have established the Khurassan province in Afghanistan.
The IS-KP is facing multipronged challenges in Afghanistan which includes the Afghan Taliban, the Resolute Mission and Afghan security forces.
Most of the militants in IS-KP are either former Afghan Taliban commanders foreigners or Pakistani Taliban.

20. IS-KP Fighters

21. Afghan Forces ANA-183,000 Resolute Mission 14,800 Afghan Taliban
Challenges to IS-KP
(3,000-4,000)
Afghan Taliban
60,000
Afghan Forces
ANA-183,000
Resolute Mission
14,800

22. Abdul Rauf
Saeed Khan

23. IS-KP attacks Jalaabad-2015 (33-Dead) Hazara Rally, Kabul- 2016

24. The Khurassan Province- (The ISIS Factor)
The IS-KP may not possess the capability to capture Kabul
but they have the ability to disrupt any positive development in Afghanistan.
The presence of such militant groups in Afghanistan is a grave threat for peace and a major roadblock towards regional integration and cooperation.

25. Fragile ANSF The US spent over $68 billion on ANSF since 2001.
Despite spending such a huge amount of money the results are dismal.
The ANA and ANP are preventing the fall of Kabul and other Urban centers,
but at the same time they are unable to carry out offensive operations against Taliban.

26. ANSF
Planned 352,000
Police
160,000
$5.01 billion
FY-2016
Army
183,000

27. Total Area: ,864 km
ANA-183,000 vs Afghan Taliban 60,000

28. Area: 652,864 km
27,000-sq km Area
200,000- Pakistan Army

29. ANSF……
The ANSF are still developing and may take several years to get mature.
The current ANA with the US air support can defend major urban centers
but as far as counter insurgency operations are concerned, they lack the capability to do so.

30. The Pak- Afghan Discord: Indian Factor
The Pak-Afghan relationship is at its lowest ebb because of the border management, blame game, refugee crisis, cross border militancy and Indian factor.
Trade between both has also been reduced by 50% .
All these things would seriously hurt any move towards the regional integration and collaboration.
Major irritant between Pakistan and Afghan is Indian factor.

31. The Pak- Afghan Discord: Indian Factor
India has got two major interests in Afghanistan, first economic and second strategic.
India is a $2-trillion economy, to sustain its economic growth, it requires energy resources, raw material for its industry.
India want physical space in Afghanistan to exploit huge untapped natural resources with special emphasis on Iron reserves in Hajigak.

34. The Pak- Afghan Discord
Second reason of the Indian presence in Afghanistan is of strategic in nature.
India wants to counter Pakistan’s support in Indian Held Kashmir.
For this purpose, it has been supporting insurgencies in FATA and Baluchistan.

35. Second in command of the TTP- Latif Mehsud

36. Kulbushan Yadav- RAW Operative held in Pakistan
Baloch Rebels

37. The Pak- Afghan Discord
Pakistan takes Indian presence in Afghanistan as a two front war dilemma keeping in mind harsh memories of East Pakistan
The Indian aggressive approach to destabilize Pakistan using Afghan soil has created serious fissures between Pakistan and Afghanistan
and it is also considered to be the major stumbling block towards regional integration and cooperation.

38. Drug Mafia-Trafficking- Funding Insurgents
The Afghan Drug Trafficking is one the main reason of instability and turmoil.
According to the UNODC report of 2016, the estimated value of illegal Afghan opiate economy is around $2.8 billion which is 13% of the Afghanistan’s total GDP.
The drug trafficking in Afghanistan is money-spinning, many state and non-state actors are involved in this business.
The estimated total worth of Afghan opium in International Market is around $61 billion.

39. Taliban generates- $400 million.
Illegal Afghan Opiate Economy is around $2.8 billion which is 13% of the Afghanistan’s Total GDP.
Taliban generates- $400 million.
The Estimated Total Worth of Afghan Opium in intl market is about $61 billion (Source: UNODC,2011), p 21

40. The Total Area under Cultivation is about 496,000 acres. (UNODC-2016)
90% of the world’s heroin has come from Afghan opium

41. Drug Mafia-Trafficking
Most of the profit goes to the war lords, drug traffickers, transnational distributors and militants.
This is one of the major source of funding for the militant groups in Afghanistan.
This is the reason that militants in Afghanistan are never short of funds which has allowed them to carry out their terrorist activities without any disruption.

42. Pak-Afghan Rapprochement
Recommendations
Curb Drug Trafficking
Development
Pak-Afghan Rapprochement
End of Proxy War
Dialogue

43. “There is no way to peace but PEACE is the only way.”

44. Unconditional Reconciliation and Dialogue Process
Recommendations
Unconditional Reconciliation and Dialogue Process
The military solution has miserably failed because of the US withdrawal, shift of the Nato from Afghanistan to Syria and Iraq.
The Resolute Mission Force by the US led alliance along with ill trained Afghan forces cannot defeat well trained, organized, highly motivated Afghan Taliban.
Pakistan, China and America must work together with all stake holders in Afghanistan and find an amicable solution which is accepted to all and end this deadly conflict for better inter-regional connectivity

45. End of Proxy War- India and Pakistan
Both countries must end proxy war and work together for peaceful, stable and prosperous Afghanistan.
Peaceful stable Afghanistan can help India and Pakistan to connect with strategically important region Central Asian region for better future.
Both states can work collectively and help Afghanistan in rebuilding and development. This border of confrontation must be converted into border of cooperation.

46. Pak-Afghan Rapprochement: Border management
Pak- Afghan rapprochement is crucial for the stability of Afghanistan.
The Pak-Afghan border is used for drug trafficking, arms smuggling, illicit trade and movement of the militants.
Both countries must overcome their differences, settle the border dispute, secure the border and collectively work for the regional connectivity and collaboration.

47. Reconstruction and Infrastructure Development
The US, China, Russia, India, Pakistan and European Union must support Afghanistan in reconstruction, development and infrastructure building.
Better roads, Rail Links are necessity of this region for better connectivity.
Initiatives like CASA-1000 and TAPI would help this region and pave the way for more cooperation between South and Central Asian countries.

48. Conclusion
Afghanistan holds the key for the inter-regional connectivity of South Asia and Central Asia.
Afghanistan’s central position in the region and security situation would decide about the future cooperation and development between these two regions.
Currently, the major issue is instability and turmoil in Afghanistan which needs to be addressed as soon as possible.

49. Conclusion
The renaissance of Afghan Taliban and changing security dynamics in the region needs multipronged strategy to overcome security challenges in Afghanistan.
The ultimate solution to Afghan problem is meaningful negotiations between Afghanistan and Taliban.
Because military strategy has failed since 2001 and now political settlement is the only way out from this quagmire.

50. Conclusion
Followed by political resolution, the regional and global partners including China, America, Russia, EU, India, Iran and Pakistan must help Afghanistan in rebuilding, reconstruction and economic development.
All the regional states especially CAS, Iran and Pakistan must work together to curb the drug trafficking in the region, which directly funds insurgents and other criminal elements in Afghanistan.
Pakistan, India and Afghanistan must join hands, end blame game, stop clandestine activities against each other and collectively work for the peace and stability of the region.