1. Production and Consumption of Poultry Meat
- Past, present and perspectives -
Prof. Dr. Hans-Wilhelm Windhorst
WING
Universität Vechta
September 4th, 2015
in Hamburg

2. Agenda:
Dynamics of global meat production
Production patterns in the EU
Production patterns in Germany
Perspectives for global poultry meat production
and consumption

3. The dynamics of global egg and poultry meat production1.
The dynamics of global egg
and poultry meat production

4. The dynamics of global meat and egg production
between 1963 and 2013; data in 1,000 t
Product
1963
2013
Increase (%)
Beef
30,856
63,984
107.4
Pig meat
28,017
113,035
303.5
Poultry meat
9,749
108,669
1,014.7
Chicken meat
8,337
96,121
1,052.9
Turkey meat
842
5,465
549.0
Hen eggs
14,927
68,262
357.3
FAO 4

5. The development of chicken meat production
by country development groups (1993 – 2013)
Year
LLDC
LDC
NIC
OIC
Total
1993
2003
2013
633
1,194
2,247
8,061
11,086
20,062
13,542
20,066
41,407
19,077
27,011
32,405
41,313
65,357
96,121
Increase
(%)
255.0
148.8
205.8
69.9
132.9
Share (%) of global
increase
2.9
21.9
50.8
24.3
100.0
LLDC = least developed countries LDC = developing countries
NIC = threshold countries OIC = developed countries

6. The changing contribution of the country development groups
to broiler production between 1993 and 2013
FAO

7. The spatial pattern of global broiler production (2013)
FAO

8. The changing contribution of the country development groups to
global chicken meat production between 1993 und 2013
FAO

9. The spatial pattern of global chicken meat production (2013)
FAO

10. Share of global production (%)
The ten leading countries in chicken meat production (2013);
data in 1,000 t
Country
Production
Share of global production (%)
USA
17,397
18.1
China
13,372
13.9
Brazil
12,387
12.9
Russian Fed.
3,463
3.6
Mexico
2,808
2.9
India
2,328
2.4
Iran
1,956
2.0
Indonesia
1,838
1.9
Argentina
1,780
Turkey
1,758
1.8
10 countries
55,087
57.3
FAO 10

11. Share of global exports(%)
The ten leading chicken meat exporting countries (2012);
data in 1,000 t
Country
Exports
Share of global exports(%)
USA
3,597
28.5
Brazil
3,560
28.2
Netherlands
916
7.3
China
721
5.7
Belgium
442
3.5
France
380
3.0
Poland
Argentina
329
2.6
Germany
322
Turkey
301
2.4
10 countries
10,948
86.7
FAO 11

12. Share (%) in world imports
The ten leading chicken meat importing countries (2012)
data in 1,000 t
Country
Imports
Share (%) in world imports
China
1,459
12.6
Saudi Arabia
743
6.4
Mexico
604
5.2
Viet Nam
516
4.5
Russian Fed.
498
4.3
Japan
425
4.7
Un. Arab Emir.
356
3.1
Un. Kingdom
Iraq
353
Netherlands
341
2.9
10 countries
5,651
48.9
FAO 12

13. Summary of the main results of part 1:
Poultry meat showed the highest growth rates of all animal
products between 1993 and 2013.
The highest absolute growth showed the ten threshold countries,
the highest relative increase the least developed countries.
The developed countries lost their leading position to the ten
threshold countries.
USA, China and Brazil contributed 44,9 % to global chicken meat
production.
USA and Brazil contributed % to global chicken meat exports.
The ten leading chicken meat importing countries shared 48.9 % of
the global import volume.

14. Patterns of EU poultry meat production2.
Patterns of EU poultry meat production

15. Patterns of global broiler production
Die zehn führenden Länder in der Erzeugung von Hühnerfleisch
im Jahr 2013, Daten in t
MEG 15

16. The development of chicken and turkey meat production in the EU (27)
between 1993 and 2013; in 1,000 t
Year
Chicken meat
Turkey meat
Production
Index
(1993 = 100)
1993
6,869
100
1,470
1995
7,387
108
1,725
117
1997
7,880
115
1,853
126
1999
8,140
119
1,873
127
2001
8,559
125
2,054
140
2003
8,479
123
1,881
128
2005
8,554
1,837
2007
8,756
1,674
114
2009
9,410
137
1,729
118
2011
9,894
144
1,745
2013
10,515
153
1,681
FAO

17. The eight leading countries in EU (27) chicken meat
production in 2003 and 2013; in t
2003
2013
Country
Production
Share (%)
Un. Kingd.
1,295
15.3
Poland
1,517
14.4
Spain
1,185
14.0
1,443
13.7
France
1,133
13.4
1,172
11.1
Italy
683
8.1
1,120
10.7
637
7.5
Germany
951
9.0
549
6.5
Netherlands
921
8.8
535
6.3
905
8.6
Belgium
424
5.0
380
3.6
8 countries
6,441
76.0
7,409
70.5
EU total
8,479
100.0
10,515
FAO

18. Per capita consumption
The development of the per capita consumption of broiler meat in the
EU (27) between 2003 and 1013
Year
Per capita consumption
(kg/person and year)
Index (1993 = 100)
2003
15.4
100
2005
16.5
107
2007
16.4
106
2009
17.1
111
2011
17.6
114
2013
17.8
116
MEG

19. Per capita consumption
The per capita consumption of broiler meat in selected countries
compared to the EU (27)(2013)
Country
Per capita consumption
(kg/person and year)
Index (EU = 100)
Brazil
45.9
258
USA
42.7
240
Argentina
41.0
230
South Africa
33.3
187
Mexico
30.0
169
Russian Fed.
24.7
139
Japan
17.0 96
China
9.6 54
India
2.7 15 EU
17.8
100
MEG

20. Summary of the main results of part 2:
In 2013, the EU (27) contributed 11 % to global chicken meat and 31 % to
global turkey meat production.
While broiler meat production increased continuously and was
50 % higher in 2013 than in 1993, turkey meat production has been
stagnating since the middle of the last decade.
The per capita consumption of broiler meat increased by 16 %
between 1993 and 2013 and reached a value of 17.8 kg, the
consumption of turkey meat has been stagnating and reached
a value of 3.8 kg in 2013.
The per capita consumption of broiler meat in the EU is much lower
than in several countries in the Americas and in South Africa, but is
much higher than in China and India.

21. Patterns of poultry meat production3.
Patterns of poultry meat production
in Germany

22. The development of chicken and poultry meat production in Germany;
data in 1,000 t (net production)
Year
Chicken meat
Turkey meat
Production
Index
(2003 = 100)
2003
498.5
100
352.4
2004
553.0
111
358.2
102
2005
571.5
115
349.0 99
2006
578.0
116
330.8 94
2007
657.0
132
332.0
2008
712.0
143
386.4
110
2009
754.0
151
382.8
109
2010
807.2
162
433.8
123
2011
858.5
172
397.6
113
2012
867.8
174
391.8
2013
914.5
183
384.5
MEG

23. The development of the per capita consumption of broiler and turkey
meat in Germany between 2003 and 2013; data in kg/person and year
Broiler meat
Turkey meat
Jahr
Per capita
consumption
Index
(2003 = 100)
2003
9.0
100
6.4
2005
9.3
103
6.2 97
2007
9.9
110
6.1 95
2009
10.8
120
6.0 94
2011
11.4
127
2013
11.7
130
5.7 89
MEG

24. The development of the self-sufficiency rate for broiler and turkey
meat in Germany between 2000 and 2013; data in %
Year
Broiler meat
Turkey meat
2000
79.5
63.1
2002
80.0
66.4
2004
93.0
67.2
2006
100.8
68.1
2008
105.1
76.3
2010
110.3
86.9
2012
116.0
82.7
2013 ?
83.1
MEG

25. Strukturen des Handels mit Geflügelfleisch
The development of the per capita meat consumption
in Germany between 2008 and 2013; data in kg
Strukturen des Handels mit Geflügelfleisch

26. The regional distribution of poultry meat production in Germany (2010)
Broiler Turkey Duck Goose

27. The ten leading countries of destination for Germany´s
poultry meat exports in 2013
Country
Exports (t)
Share (%)
Netherlands
France
Austria
Un. Kingdom
South Africa
Greece
Poland
Belgium/Lux.
Hungary
Hong Kong
124,172
44,837
43,558
35,598
22,374
17,179
13,893
10,779
9,728
7,039
25.0
9.0
8.8
7.2
4.5
3.5
2.8
2.2
2.0
1.4
10 countries
329,193
66.3
Total
496,618
100.0
MEG 2014

28. The ten leading countries of origin for Germany´s poultry
meat imports (2013), includes salted meat
Country
Imports (t)
Share (%)
Netherlands
Poland
Brazil
France
Un. Kingdom
Belgium
Hungary
Thailand
236,722
83,598
37,987
29,435
29,022
27,590
23,691
18,422
44.6
15.7
7.1
5.5
5.2
4.5
3.5
8 countries
486,467
91.6
Total
531,291
100.0 EU
495,945
93.3
Non-EU countries
35,346
6.7
EMA 2013

29. Impacts of the projected population decrease on the4.
Impacts of the projected
population decrease on the
production and demand
of broiler meat

30. Projected population development in Germany:
2011: 80.2 Mill.
2020: 78.8 Mill.
2030: 76.7 Mill.
Absolute decrease: 3.5 mill.
Relative decrease: 4.4 %

31. The development of the net production of broiler meat:
Year
Net production
(1,000 t SW)
Consumption
(1,000 t)
Per capita cons.
(kg/year)
2004
2010
2013
2014
553
807
915
976
759
881
943
951
9.2
10.8
11.7
11.8
Increase
423
192
2,6
Increase (%)
76.5
25.3
28.3
Note:
While production increased by 7.6 % per year, consumption only grew by
2.5 %
The average annual increase of the per capita consumption was 250 g.

32. Perspectives:
In the past years, production of broiler meat increased
much faster than consumption. This resulted in growing
export volumes.
For 2020 a growing surplus is projected, based on a slower
increase of the per capita consumption and a further growth
of the production volume.
The ongoing animal welfare discussion and resulting political
decisions will have, however, far reaching impacts.

33. Projections of the global development of poultry meat 5.
Projections of the global
development of poultry meat
production and consumption

34. The ten countries with the highest increase resp. decrease of
chicken meat production between 1993 and 2013
Country
Increase
(1,000 t)
Decrease
Brazil
9,244
France 25
China
8,800
Bulgaria 20
USA
7,178
Greece 18
Russian Fed.
2,186
Cuba 17
Mexico
1,768
Kyrgyzstan 3
India
1,751
Uzbekistan
Iran
1,396
Burundi
Turkey
1,314
Mozambique
Poland
1,258
Congo, Dem. R. 2
Indonesia
1,150
Eritrea 1
10 countries
36,045 95
OECD

35. Projected development of global poultry meat
production between 2014 and 2023; data in 1,000 t
Region/Country
2014
2023
Increase (%)
World
109,970
134,511
22.3
Developing countries
64,787
82,088
26.7
Developed countries
45,182
52,422
16.0
EU (28)
12,841
13,873
8.0
USA
20,420
24,469
19.8
Brazil
13,385
15,445
15.4
OECD

36. Projected development of global poultry meat
consumption between 2014 and 2023; data in 1,000 t
Region/country
2014
2023
Change (%)
World
109,497
134,340
+ 22.7
Developing countries
67,253
85,833
+ 27.6
Developed countries
42,541
48,508
+ 14.0
EU (28)
12,396
13,055
+ 5.3
USA
16,677
19,695
+ 18.1
Brazil
9,491
10,647
+ 12.2
Russian Federation
4,170
4,734
+ 13.5
Japan
1,849
1,835
- 0.8
OECD

37. Projected development of the trade balance of selected countries with poultry meat, data in 1.000 t
Region/country
2014
Developing countries
Developed countries
EU (28)
+ 817
USA
Brazil
Japan
- 398
Africa
OECD

38. Perspectives for Germany´s poultry meat production5.
Perspectives for Germany´s
poultry meat production

39. Perspectives 1:
The future development of poultry meat production
in Germany will depend on the opening of new export
markets and the possibility to build new growing houses.
A fast increase of broiler meat production seems hardly
possible because of limited possibilities to build new
growing houses and a slow increase of the per capita
consumption.
In turkey meat production the decreasing per capita
consumption resulted in a considerable decrease of the
production volume. It will be difficult to stabilise the
present situation.

40. Perspectives 2:
The necessary consolidation in poultry meat production
to be competitive in global markets finds a strong
opposition not only in society but also in policy.
The ongoing animal welfare discussion with stricter
regulations as well as the global risk of Avian Influenza
outbreaks could stop the recent growth of poultry
meat production and limit exports.
It is expected that a new paradigm of intensive poultry
production will develop which will consider animal
welfare and environmental protection aspects to a higher
degree.

41. Thank you for your attention! (hwindhorst@wing.uni-vechta.de)