1. What is happening to religion in S. Korea?
Age, period, and cohort patterns of religious change in the past three decades
Chaeyoon Lim
(University of Wisconsin – Madison)
October, 2017
Pew Research Center

2. Census 1985 - 2015 Sharp decline of % Buddhist
Wild swing of % Catholic
Protestant standing their ground
Rise of None
A big change for a decade

3. Are These Changes Real?

4. Measuring Religious Affiliation in Census
Two-step question (except for 1985)
Do you have religion?
(If you have a religion) What is your religion?
Several notable changes over time in procedure
Layout of the questionnaire changed (2005 was unique)
Response options changed (Protestant & Catholic vs. Christian (Protestant) & Christian (Catholic))
Sample (20%) and web survey in 2015
Proxy response

5. Trends in KGSS

6. % Protestant in National Surveys vs Census
Data: 48 national surveys between1982 and 2015, including WVS, Gallup, ISDPR, KGSS, ABS, GAP(N = 55,784)

7. % Catholic in National Surveys vs Census-
Data: 48 national surveys between1982 and 2015, including WVS, Gallup, ISDPR, KGSS, ABS, GAP(N = 55,784)

8. % Buddhist in National Surveys vs Census
Data: 48 national surveys between1982 and 2015, including WVS, Gallup, ISDPR, KGSS, ABS, GAP(N = 55,784)

9. % No Religion in National Surveys vs Census-
Data: 48 national surveys between1982 and 2015, including WVS, Gallup, ISDPR, KGSS, ABS, GAP(N = 55,784)

10. Some Observations
Large variations in survey estimates, even in the same year or in the same source
Particularly Buddhism
Sample estimates not centered on the Census numbers
According to the survey estimates (with uncertainty),
Steady growth of Protestant (Stagnant in recent years?)
Post-2010 decline of Buddhist
Post-2010 increase of no religion (at the expense of Buddhist?)
No clear trend for Catholic

11. What Is Driving These Changes? Age, Period, Cohort

12. % Buddhists in KLIPS W1, W12, W17
Data: Korean Labor & Income Panel Study (1998 – 2015)

13. % Protestant in KLIPS W1, W12, W17
Data: Korean Labor & Income Panel Study (1998 – 2015)

14. % Catholic in KLIPS W1, W12, W17
Data: Korean Labor & Income Panel Study (1998 – 2015)

15. % No Religion in KLIPS W1, W12, W17
Data: Korean Labor & Income Panel Study (1998 – 2015)

16. Some Observations Declining Buddhist: Cohort & Period effects
Stable Protestant (might even be growing slightly): Age or life-course effects among older cohorts
Uncertainty in how Catholic is doing: depending on life- course effects among younger cohorts
Rise of None: Cohort & Period effects

17. How Stable Is Religious Identity in Korea?

18. (In)stability of Religious Identification
Data: Korean Labor & Income Panel Study
Based on all panel respondents who completed Waves 12 to 17 (N = 9,696)
“Always” = Identify with the religion in all six waves
“At least once” = Identify with the religion at least in one wave

19. Religious Identification: Latent Class Analysis
Data: Korean Labor & Income Panel Study
Based on all panel respondents who completed Waves 12 to 17 (N = 9,696)
Latent class analysis with four classes

20. Some Observations
High level of uncertainty, especially among Buddhists
About a half of Cluster 1 & 2 swing back and forth between Buddhism & No religion
Protestant identity most stable; Catholic identity (surprisingly) unstable

21. Discussion
Declining Buddhism (age/period, cohort); stabilizing Protestantism; Catholicism probably in decline (mainly cohort effect but uncertain future)
High level of within-cohort change over life course
Age and/or Period effects
Weak/fluid religious identity (Buddhist & Catholic)
Probably contributing to the high variance among surveys and to the census vs. survey discrepancy

22. Discussion
The Census numbers may not be the “true” parameters for surveys
Beyond the “what is your religion” question
Taking demography seriously: rapid demographic changes in the past decades.