1. Emissions from ships in the Arctic

2. Introduction
Recently we made Black Carbon (BC) calculations for ships in the Arctic
Our inventory area:
North of 58.95o N
Years: 2012, 2020,
2030 and 2050

3. Introduction
Navigation is one of the most important local emission sources in the Arctic
Emissions are being injected directly into the Arctic environment at low (chimney) heights
Black carbon (BC) emissions are of particular interest
It has the capability to absorb light over reflective areas (e.g. snow, ice)
It has a darkening effect when deposited on snow and ice

4. The emission inventory needs:
Traffic activity data: Sailed km’s for ship type/size classes
Fuel consumption: Estimated from fuel-power functions
BC emission factors: gBC/kg fuel

5. Traffic activity data for ships
Traffic data from the Danish Maritime Authority (DMA) based on satellite sampled AIS data
AIS (Automatic Information System): Transponder signals from ships with information about identity and position
High intensive traffic areas (coasts of Norway, Iceland, Faroe Islands and Baltic sea) covered by terrestrial base stations and AIS receivers
Outside these areas AIS data is gathered from two, sometimes three, polar orbital satellites

6. Activity data for ships
The AIS data is further processed by DMA into
Grid cell resolution: 0.5o x 0.225o long-lat
Average sailing speed and sailed distance per month in 2012
14 ship types, 16 ship length categories
Forecast years
Traffic prognosis from International Maritime Organization (IMO)1 is used to project 2012 traffic into 2020, 2030 and 2050
1Second IMO GHG Study 2009 (Buhaug et al. 2009)

7. Activity data for ships
1Second IMO GHG Study 2009 (Buhaug et al. 2009)

8. Emission are calculated per grid, by using ship activity data and engine fuel-power functions and fuel related EF’s.
The BC emissions from total navigation are shown on the upper figure
The fishing activities and hence emissions (lower figure) are to a large extent coastal specific. The emissions are highest along the Norwegian coast, around the Faroe and Shetland Islands and around Iceland

9. Fishing ships (45 %) is the largest emission source in 2012, followed by passenger ships, tankers, general cargo and container ships.
The total emissions of BC increase by 2 %, 4 % and 16 % in 2020, 2030 and 2050
Mainly driven by growth for Container and Tanker ships
The decreasing emissions from fishing ships is a result of constant fishing activities assumed in the forecast years, and improved fuel efficiencies for the engines installed.

10. Scenario results with traffic diversion along polar routes1, due to less arctic sea ice in the future
Two different growth rates for global navigation, and two different shares of Suez/Panama traffic using polar routes
Our BAU scenario: 90 % more BC (and fuel) in the arctic area in 2050 due to polar traffic
HiG scenario: 650 % more BC (and fuel) in the arctic area in 2050 due to polar traffic
1Arctic shipping emissions inventories and future scenarios, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 10, 9689–9704

11. How to mitigate BC
Ban the use of heavy fuel oil for ships in the Arctic?
Use of sulfur removal scrubber technology, which brings down BC also?
Use of LNG (Liquid Natural Gas) ships, with very low or zero BC emissions?
We examine this in a new project, which includes a future Sulfur Emission Control Area (SECA) for the Arctic
The scenario assumes different shares of ships, using MGO/MDO, LNG and scrubbers in the future

12. Thank you for your attention!

13. Ship engine power
Basis power demand functions (kW) are provided by DTU per ship type
Propulsion power: Function of ship length and sailing speed
Auxiliary engine power demand is also taken into account
Adjustment for improved ship energy efficiency is made in the forecast years, per ship type, according to the IMO EEDI scheme
EEDI: Energy Efficiency Design Index: Mandatory energy efficiency improvements for new built ships starting from 2013
“The EEDI is a design index, primarily applicable to new ships, that has been developed by the IMO and is to be used as a tool for control of CO2 emissions from ships. The IMO aims to improve the energy efficiency of ships via mandatory implementation of the EEDI.”

14. Ship engine power – fishing vessels
Fixed engine load factor (60 %) for fishing vessels, due to unprecise power-speed relation (COWI Tromsø, 2013)
The sailing speeds (and hence sailing distances) are generally low during direct fishing. However, low sailing speeds do not automatically imply low engine loads for fishing ships.
Additional engine power is needed (which increases fuel consumption), either due to the nature of the fishing work (e.g. trawl fishing) or due to the power needed for the processing and packing of the fish catch at sea.

15. Fuel factors Sfc data (g/kWh) from DTU and MAN Diesel & Turbo
Vessel type x Engine type x Engine life time relation in the model

16. BC % of PM from literature: 0.3-17 % for HFO and 12-40 % for MDO
The BC part of PM is low for HFO (high fuel S-%); sulphur bound PM dominates the total PM mass
We use a constant BC emission factor = 0,35 g/kg fuel (Corbett et al., 2010)1
The soot mass of PM (BC) remain the same, sulphur related PM mass varies with fuel S-%
1Arctic shipping emissions inventories and future scenarios, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 10, 9689–9704

17. Engine work produced
W = Work in kWh S = ship type f = fuel type k = engine type l = ship length (LPP) interval P = Power demand (kW) D = Distance (NM) V = Vessel average speed (knots) EEDIf = Energy Efficiency Design Index factor

18. Fuel and emission calculations
E = Fuel consumption or emission (g) W = Engine work produced (kWh) EF = Fuel consumption or emission factor (g/kWh)