1. Structural Transformation Changes in the Tanker Trade
&
Changes in the Tanker Trade
John C. Fawcett-Ellis

2. Structural Transformation & Changes in the Tanker Trade
MARKET FUNDAMENTALS
INDUSTRY STRUCTURES
CHALLENGES TO THE INTERNATIONAL REGULATORY REGIMES
SOLUTIONS THROUGH PARTNERSHIPS
Notes

3. A nervous, volatile market
Tight supply
Volatile oil price
Low oil stocks
Short-term disruptions
Increased non-OPEC oil production
Charterers’ preferences for “modern” ships
Notes

4. Short-term disruptions
Strikes in Venezuela
Congestion in Bosporus
Political unrest in Nigeria
Reconstruction in Iraq
Japanese nuclear plant maintenance
Weather delays in US Gulf and Baltic
Phase-out situation unclear
Notes

5. FSU oil exports
mbd

6. Tanker supply Large order book Scrapping ahead of phase-out
Majority of fleet now double-hull
Average age is reducing
Phase-out situation unclear
Notes

7. Orderbook by year of delivery
Notes
number

8. Tankers sold for demolition
number
m dwt
Notes

9. The Future Market ?
DEMAND – steady but low growth, offset by shorter hauls
SUPPLY – growing quickly
UNCERTAINTIES:
Short-term disruptions
Charterer preferences & Marginalisation of some tonnage
Notes

10. Structural Transformation & Changes in the Tanker Trade
INDUSTRY STRUCTURES
Consolidation
Investments and Costs
Legislative developments – Post Prestige
Notes

11. Legislative developments: - IMO/EU Proposals to Amend MARPOL Annex I
Accelerated Phase-out of single hulls
Expanded Condition Assessment Scheme – initially from 15 years of age
Ban on carriage of “Heavy Oils” in single-hulled tankers

12. Structural Transformation & Changes in the Tanker Trade
CHALLENGES TO THE INTERNATIONAL REGULATORY REGIMES
IMO – Unilateralism
UNCLOS
Flags – Audit and/or other assessment
Class – Goal based standards; common rules
Notes

13. Double hulls dominate - Single hulls under attack
Notes

14. The phasing-out of the single hull tanker
No. of Tankers

16. Structural Transformation & Changes in the Tanker Trade
The New World Order
SOLUTIONS - Through PARTNERSHIPS
Greater cooperation
Greater transparency
Greater dialogue
Greater trust
Greater LEADERSHIP
Notes

17. THE NEW WORLD ORDER Solutions through Partnership
“ Tanker shipping is committed to continuous improvement of safety, quality and protection of the environment ”

18. Tanker incidents – improving record
Notes

19. Development of tanker oil spills
Source: ITOPF 2003

20. Chain of Responsibility
SHIPOWNER
CLASS
SOCIETIES
CHARTERER
Working with regulators and legislators
SHIPYARDS
CARGO OWNER
INSURERS
PORTS &
TERMINALS
BANKS &
FINANCIERS
FLAG STATES

21. Respect for International Treaties Inflammatory statements
RESPONSIBILITY IS A TWO WAY PROCESS - the regulator and the regulated must both be responsible
Respect for International Treaties
Reception Facilities
IMO
Ratification
- Annex VI
Jailing of Masters
- TBT
Illegal Boardings
- HNS
Places of Refuge
Inflammatory statements
Ship Recycling

22. Thank you www.intertanko.com
Europe is more concnered with the effect of shipping rather than being shipping nations. Europe is acting more like ports states than shipping nations