1. Statewide College Workforce Report
AMY WATSON
Senior Economist
MT Dept. of Labor and Industry |
Presented to the Healthcare Workforce Advisory Committee
November 6th, 2017

2. Forecasted Labor Market Tightness
Unemployment rate current just below 4%
Below a natural rate of unemployment, which indicates labor market tightness
Tightness expected to continue as the baby boomer population retires and is replace by a smaller generation of workers
Tightness is worse in healthcare because older population also increases demand for healthcare services.
Source: MT DLI Labor Force and Employment Forecasts

3. Solutions for a Worker Shortage
Reduce time out of labor force for retraining.
Train workers for in-demand jobs
Responsive training system
Encourage students into profitable fields
Improve labor productivity to do more with fewer workers.
Education is more suited to job needs
Positive returns to education encourage future workers to obtain degrees
Make sure we are effectively utilizing our existing workforce.
Engage a higher percentage of our population with the workforce.
Improve labor productivity.

4. Statewide College Report
Expanded and improved on initial pilot project for Missoula College
Coordination between three state agencies
Inclusion of 16 public colleges and 2 private colleges

5. Statewide Research Questions
How do graduates fare in the labor market?
Do colleges produce enough graduates in the right fields?

6. Statewide Research Questions
How do graduates fare in the labor market?

7. Most Graduates Work in Montana
75%
of all graduates work in Montana sometime in the five years after graduation
77%
of healthcare grads find jobs within a year
Graduates work in every county in the state

8. Employment by Industry
Healthcare is the Top Employing Industry
Source: MT DLI, OCHE MUS, RMC, and CC graduate data wage match.

9. Student Enrollment by Program
Health Professions is Second Largest
Source: MUS Warehouse, Summer 2005 to Spring 2016 Enrollment EOT.

10. Industry Employment by Program
Most Healthcare Graduates work in Healthcare
Program Category
Top Employing Industry
% Emp
Health Professions
Healthcare
75%
Education
73%
Architecture
Prof & Tech Service
67%
Legal Professions
53%
Human Services
39%
Engineering
34%
Culinary Arts & Recreation
28%
Computer & Info Science
27%
Physical Science
22%
Social Science
Liberal Arts
20%
Business
Finance
19%
Construction & Transport
Construction
17%
Ag & Natural Resource
16%
Communication
Information
Social Work
Kinesiology and Exercise Science
Source: MT DLI, OCHE MUS, RMC, and CC graduate data wage match. Program of study shown is the program associated with the graduate’s highest degree earned in Montana.

11. Graduates Earn Above Median Wages
within Three Years of Graduation
$46,720
$38,620
$35,200
$23,970
Montana Entry-Level Wage
Source: MTDLI, OCHE, RMC, and CC graduate data wage match. Real wages reported in 2015 dollars using the CPI-U.

12. Healthcare Graduates Earn More
Compared to Graduates from Other Programs
Program
One-Year After
Five-Years After
% Filing
Median Income
All Programs
69%
$29,879
58%
$39,992
Healthcare Programs
77%
$36,732
70%
$49,599
Pharmacy
51%
$84,907
48%
$101,039
Physician Assistant
40%
$68,673
41%
$88,313
Physical Therapy
28%
$58,108
$55,872
Registered Nursing
84%
$45,543
74%
Respiratory Care
63%
$42,296
Allied Health Diagnostic, Intervention, Treatment
79%
$33,857
73%
$41,473
Health Science, Other
67%
$23,168
56%
$37,885
Practical Nursing
91%
$25,586
80%
$33,273
Surgical Technology
85%
$36,085
$32,427
Health Care Office Management
78%
$28,483
72%
$31,027
Health Tech/ Assistant
$25,491
75%
$29,130
HIT and Medical Coding
81%
$23,826
$25,737
Medical Admin Assistant
87%
$20,378
$23,074
Source: DOR, OCHE MUS, RMC, and CC income data match summarized by MT DLI. Income is defined as lines 7, 12, 17, and 18 on the MT income tax return. Real income reported in 2015 dollars using the CPI-U.

13. Higher Wage Earnings Come From:
Incumbent Workers
$8,000 wage premium one year after graduation
Premium decreases to $6,000 over five years
Workers in high-wage industries
More education
Graduate degrees have the highest wages
Associates ≈ Bachelor’s degree

14. Workforce Outcomes by Degree
More Education
Source: DOR, OCHE MUS, RMC, and CC income data match summarized by MT DLI. Income is defined as lines 7, 12, 17, and 18 on the MT income tax return.

15. Workforce Outcomes less than Bachelor’s
Healthcare Programs earn more than Bachelor’s
Source: DOR, OCHE MUS, RMC, and CC income data match summarized by MT DLI. Income is defined as lines 7, 12, 17, and 18 on the MT income tax return.

16. Wage Premium for Bachelor’s Degree
Difference in wage earnings for associate vs. Bachelor’s
$36,370
$1,460
Bachelor’s Earns More
Source: MTDLI, OCHE MUS, RMC, and CC graduate data wage match. Allied health excludes surgical technology and respiratory care. *= Certificate of Applied Science graduates.

17. Statewide Research Questions
How do graduates fare in the labor market?
Do colleges produce enough graduates in the right fields?

18. Measuring Worker Demand
Colleges may also need to train existing workings looking to change careers.
Minimum training needs =
job openings due to growth
+ retirements
Demand Range
Growth
Retirements
Job-to-Job

19. Statewide Research Questions
How do graduates fare in the labor market?
Do colleges produce enough graduates in the right fields?
Areas for new program development

20. What is High-Demand? No College Degree = 69% Two-Year Degree = 9%
Four-Year Degree = 22%
Note: Percentages refer to percent of high-demand occupations, not percent of workers within those occupations.

21. Focus on Occupations Requiring College Education
What is High-Demand?
Focus on Occupations Requiring College Education
High – Demand
Top 25% for total openings within a degree type
Note: Percentages refer to percent of high-demand occupations, not percent of workers within those occupations.

22. Most are high-level healthcare jobs
Supply and Demand by Occupation
22%
of high-demand jobs cannot be filled by graduates from Montana colleges
Most are high-level healthcare jobs
10%
of high-demand jobs are undersupplied
Nursing Assistants
Dental Assistants

23. Statewide Research Questions
How do graduates fare in the labor market?
Do colleges produce enough graduates in the right fields?
Areas for new program development
Changes in existing capacity

24. Supply and Demand by Program Healthcare Programs
Source: MTDLI occupational employment projections. OCHE, RMC, and CC graduate data. Demand is sum of all occupations a graduate from the program could fill. Supply is average over last three academic years.

25. May Still be Difficult to Hire Nurses
Only 56% of Montana College RN graduates hold a BSN
$2,000 income premium for bachelor’s degree attainment
Backlog of unfilled openings from years of undersupply
RN capacity only exceeds demand since
Source: Montana Department of Labor and Industry (MT DLI) employment projections. OCHE MUS, Rocky Mountain and Carroll College graduate data. Income data from Montana Department of Revenue (DOR).

26. Growth in College Capacity for RNs
Source: Montana Department of Labor and Industry (MT DLI) employment projections. OCHE MUS, Rocky Mountain and Carroll College graduate data.

27. May Still be Difficult to Hire Nurses
Only 56% of Montana College RN graduates hold a BSN
$2,000 income premium for bachelor’s degree attainment
25% of ASN RNs achieve a BSN from a Montana college
Backlog of unfilled openings from years of undersupply
RN capacity only exceeds demand since
3. Geographical distribution mismatches
Source: Montana Department of Labor and Industry (MT DLI) employment projections. OCHE MUS, Rocky Mountain and Carroll College graduate data. Income data from Montana Department of Revenue (DOR).

28. Program Supply and Demand by Region
Healthcare Program NW SW NC SC E
Health Science, Other
HIT and Medical Coding
Health Care Office Management
Medical Admin Assistant
Allied Health Diagnostic, Intervention, Treatment
Respiratory Care
Surgical Technology
Physician Assistant
Health Tech/ Assistant
Pharmacy
Physical Therapy
Registered Nursing
Practical Nursing
Source: MTDLI occupational employment projections and OCHE, RMC, and CC graduate data.

29. Migration Helps Fill Gaps
Source: MTDLI, OCHE MUS, RMC, and CC graduate data wage match. Excludes years prior to 2010 due to lack of region 5 data. Arrows show net migration between regions.

30. Workforce Outcomes by Program
Source: DOR, OCHE, RMC, and CC income data match summarized by MTDLI. Earned income is defined as lines 7, 12, 17, and 18 on the Montana income tax return, not including farm income.

31. Healthcare Takeaways
Above average workforce outcomes suggest healthcare is a high-demand field in Montana
University system has responded well to demand
Workforce efforts to focus on distribution shortfalls
Provide incentives for students to move to underserved areas
Communication with employers critical to understanding local need
Help employers recruit and retain healthcare professionals
Source: Montana Department of Labor and Industry (MT DLI) employment projections. OCHE MUS, Rocky Mountain and Carroll College graduate data. Income data from Montana Department of Revenue (DOR).

32. More Information at lmi.mt.gov
AMY WATSON
Senior Economist
MT Dept. of Labor and Industry |