1. Real clothes for Norway’s Emperor
Paris, carbon budgets & 2°C mitigation
web:
Foto: Tina Rohdin
Kevin Anderson Isak Stoddard Jesse Schrage
Zennström Professor in Climate Change Leadership Deputy Director CEMUS & CSD CCL Coordinator CEMUS & CSD

2. From Paris to Norway & Bergen via carbon budgets
Our Paris commitments
Importance of carbon budgets
Translating 1.5 & 2°C into Global carbon budgets
Estimating Norway’s fair carbon budgets
… and what of Oslo’s proposals?

3. The Paris Agreement established our commitments

4. Paris – an important diplomatic triumph
… hold the increase in global average temperature to
well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels and pursue
efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5°C
…to undertake rapid reductions in accordance with best science
…on the basis of equity,

5. Backdrop to Paris (& latest IPCC reports)
The mitigation message has changed little in twenty seven years
Annual emissions now ~60% higher than in 1990
Even in Norway, CO2 emissions have risen by ~25% since 1990

6. Backdrop to Paris (& latest IPCC reports)
in terms of temperature rise (e.g. 2°C)
A focus on 2030, 2050, etc. has no scientific basis
It is carbon budgets that matter

7. Thinking of this graphically…

8. Carbon dioxide emissions

9. It’s not what happens at some date in the future that matters
Carbon dioxide emissions

10. but the carbon budget i.e. the area under the curve (e.g. for 2°C)
Carbon dioxide emissions
The Carbon Budget .

11. If we delay stringent mitigation today
We emit additional CO2 A A
Carbon dioxide emissions

12. A
Carbon dioxide emissions B

13. A B Carbon dioxide emissions
Anderson & Bows, 2011, Beyond dangerous climate change: emission scenarios for a new world, Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A , 20-4
… 66% chance of avoiding 2°C B

14. Quantifying the Paris
2°C challenge

15. Before Paris …
4°C to 6°C
1980
2000
2020
2040
2060
2080
2100

16. … national pledges add up to...
With Paris
… national pledges add up to...
3°C to 4°C
1980
2000
2020
2040
2060
2080
2100

17. 3°C to 4°C And to stay “well below 2°C”
- the carbon budget remaining from 2017 is:
- approx. 800 billion tonnes CO2 (i.e. 800GtCO2)
3°C to 4°C
2017
1980
2000
2020
2040
2060
2080
2100

18. 2017
~Zero CO2 by ~2050
1980
2000
2020
2040
2060
2080
2100

19. But Paris also has an important EQUITY dimension
- wealthy nations need to transition to zero-CO2 ahead of poorer nations
2017
~Zero CO2 by ~2050
1980
2000
2020
2040
2060
2080
2100

20. So how is Oslo addressing this challenge?

21. So what are Norway's commitments under the Paris Agreement?

22. Sequential logic …
Norway has committed to make its fair contribution to reduce its emissions in line with staying “well below 2°C” and “pursuing … 1.5°C”
The IPCC provide a range of carbon budgets for these temperatures
We derive very ambitious mitigation pathways for poorer (non-OECD) nations
Estimate the non-OECD carbon budget & subtract from the global budget
This gives an OECD carbon budget (i.e. from 2018 onwards)
Divide the OECD budget fairly to give a Norway & Oslo carbon budget

23. Very challenging mitigation for poorer nations

24. Apportioning global budgets to Norway (NB. provisional)
NB: even v. ambitious mitigation by non-OECD exceeds 1.5°C budgets
Apportion remaining 2°C budget to Norway:
Gives ~280 to 320MtCO2 from 2018
c.f Norway 44MtCO2 (territorial) - i.e. 6 to 7yrs!
approx. 50MtCO2 with aviation & shipping

25. Headline mitigation message for Norway (NB. provisional)
Assuming:
1) Norway is to meet it’s Paris commitment
2) & its policies are to have a scientific foundation
… then,
mitigate at >13% p.a. starting now
~75% reduction in CO2 by 2025
approaching full decarbonisation of energy by 2035

26. So how do Oslo’s commitments stack up?

27. Initial headline comment on Oslo’s commitments
Deserve congratulations if they deliver as promised
Broadly inline with Paris 2°C mitigation rates
Probably the only geographical area to do this
But …

28. Initial headline comment on Oslo’s commitents
Equates to ~ 1.5 tCO2/person
Norway mean/person is ~ 8.5 tCO2
i.e. over 80% of Oslo citizens’ CO2 is excluded from mitigation

29. So, if the Emperor is to have real clothes…
Oslo to develop 2°C mitigation programme for all sectors
Norway to match Oslo’s courageous ambition – now!
… and that’s just the start

30. Norway – a Parisian bellwether
Norway has a small highly educated population
… with world-beating renewable energy potential
… is one of the wealthiest nations in the world
And with an oft-deserved ‘ethical’ reputation
… but does all this mask a morally suspect legacy?

31. Norway – a Parisian bellwether
1987 Norway leads with the Bruntland report
1990 IPCC’s first report
1990 Norway establishes its
Sovereign ‘wealth’ fund

32. Norway – a Parisian bellwether
In 2017 SWF is worth around 8 trillion NOK
i.e. 2 million NOK for every adult in Norway
2005
2013
2014
50% chance 2°C, ~70% fossil fuels in the ground
“likely” chance 2°C, near 80%+
Paris 1.5°C over 90%
2017 Statoil keen to begin Arctic drilling (Lofoten & Barent Sea)
… or as the FT called it “Oil and the battle for Norway’s soul”

33. Norway’s future – Bruntland or Statoil?
Rapid phase out of Norway’s hydrocarbon assets
Moratorium on airport expansion
Use the Oslo plan as a catalyst for national decarbonisation
Return the SWF to those who have, are & will be paying for it
i.e. reparation for poorer, climate vulnerable, communities
“… meets the needs of the present without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own needs."

34. and a message of hope to finish …
“at every level the greatest obstacle to transforming the world is that we lack the clarity and imagination to conceive that it could be different.”
Robert Unger

35. Tack för att ni lyssnade
web:
Foto: Tina Rohdin
Kevin Anderson Isak Stoddard Jesse Schrage
Zennström Professor in Climate Change Leadership Deputy Director CEMUS & CSD CCL Coordinator CEMUS & CSD