1. The end of the era of cheap oil A decisive factor in Climate Change
Miltos Tsoskounoglou
Environmental Affairs &
Health and Safety Manager
Toyota Hellas
October 2008

2. According to current trends, within the next generation….

3. World population will increase by 30%
+30%
8300
6400
2030
2005

4. World GDP will double

5. World car parc will double

6. World oil demand is expected to rise by 50%
+50%

7. CO2 in the atmosphere will have risen considerably, making Global Warming worse

8. What is missing from the picture is that by then Oil production will have gone past its Peak

9. Technology has advanced in great strides. However….

10. Discoveries of new oil reserves have fallen steadily since the peak in 1965 – we are currently consuming 3 barrels for every new one discovered
Past Discoveries
Production
Expected discoveries
This shows the world situation. It is the most important slide I can show you.
ExxonMobil deserves huge credit for publishing it with good data and revisions properly backdated to discovery.
World discovery has been falling relentlessly for 40 years.
There is no good reason to expect the trend to change direction.
Consumption, shown in black, exceeded discovery in 1981, and the gap is widening.
Take a good look : it says it all.
Source: ExxonMobil

11. Existing production declines worldwide by ~4% p. a
Existing production declines worldwide by ~4% p.a. New supply equal to that of Saudi Arabia is needed every 3 years just to cover for depletion
IEA Medium-Term Oil Market Report 2007 :
“Industry needs to generate 3.0mb/d of new supply each year just to offset decline.”
Source: ExxonMobil

12. In the USA, no new technology, no increase in prices, no discovery of major new fields was able to reverse the fall in oil production after the Peak was reached in 1971

13. We will not “run out of oil” but, like the USA, world production will reach a Peak, after which point it will irreversibly start to decline

14. The Peak will be reached in the next few years – some claim we have already reached a “plateau”
Source: Bauquis P.R., 2006

15. Production data shows that over the last 3 years world conventional crude oil production has hardly increased

16. Non-Opec crude oil production seems to have already reached a “plateau”

17. World unconventional liquid fuels production is rising slowly & accounts for 14% of world liquid fuels supply

18. World liquid fuels production has increased hardly at all according to EIA , or slightly according to IEA

19. Price fluctuations can be explained by basic economics: by the inability of supply to meet increasing demand and by the oncoming world recession which is lowering demand for oil

20. Emissions of CO2 and Climate Change will be influenced by Peak Oil

21. Peak Oil is sending strong market signals influencing not only the cost of oil but the cost of energy which leads to actions 
 If greater energy efficiency
 If more biofuels and renewables
 If substitution by other liquid fuels (unconventional oil, synthetic liquid fuels)  X

22. And to make things even more difficult, there are signs that Peak Natural Gas might also not be far off
Source: ASPO, C. Campbell

23. Thank you!