1. Populist attitudes and left- and right-wing voting
Populist attitudes and left- and right-wing voting. First results from the German 2017 federal election
Sigrid Roßteutscher & Lars C. Stövsand
Goethe-University Frankfurt/Main
International Workshop on Populism and Political Behaviour
Università die Siena
November 13/14th, 2017

2. Content:
On Populism?
Preliminary results: Online-Tracking (10 days pre-election)
Role of the Media?
Very preliminary results: pre-election cross-section (8 weeks pre- election
Tentative conclusions

3. On populism: Germany: New
See Kriesi
„WE“
Anti-Establishment
Germany:
New

4. 2. Preliminary Results: Online-Tracking
Operationalization:
Anger Merkel
If you think about Angela Merkel or about what she has done, how angry/fourious are you?
(Wenn Sie an Angela Merkel denken oder das, was sie getan hat, wie wütend sind Sie dann?)
1 „not at all angry, 7 „very angry“
2. Difference who governs
Some people say, that it makes a big difference who governs in Berlin. Others say, it does not make a difference. What do you think?
(Einige Leute meinen, dass es einen großen Unterschied macht, wer in Berlin an der Regierung ist. Andere meinen, dass es keinen Unterschied macht. Wie ist das bei Ihnen?
Difference between parties
And how is that in the present political discussion, how big are the differences between the parties?
(Und wie ist das in der aktuellen politischen Diskussion, wie groß sind da die Unterschiede zwischen den Parteien?)
2 and 3: 1 „no difference at all“, 5 „very big difference
Want Only Votes
Parties are only interested in the vote, they do not care about the opinions of the voters.
(„Die Parteien wollen nur die Stimmen der Wähler, ihre Ansichten interessieren sie nicht.)
1 fully disagree, 5 fullly agree

5. 2. Preliminary Results: Online-Tracking
Operationalization:
All standardized:0 to 1.
Populism-scale 0- 4
CDU/
CSU
SPD
Liberal
Green
Left
AfD
Non-Voter
Anger Merkel
1,8
11,0
5,6
4,3
17,2
60,2
25,8
No diff. governm.
19,6
25,5
21,0
12,1
28,5
37,0
44,8
No diff. parties
17,5
30,9
23,2
21,2
31,6
38,0
33,3
Only want votes
32,8
44,4
35,3
40,7
52,5
76,4
86,4
Populism index
4,2
14,4
6,7
24,5
57,3
50,0
Note: Percentage with extreme values, highest and second highest. Populism: Higher than 2.5 on a scale from 0-4.

6. 2. Preliminary Results: Online-Tracking
Logitistic Regression Results:
CDU/
CSU
SPD
Liberal
Green
Left
AfD
Non-
Voter
Anger Merkel
.02***
1.67
.53
.34*
3.90**
47.24***
1.10
No diff. governm.
1.06
1.65
.63
.77
1.29
.92
1.88
No diff. parties
.59
1.84
1.26
.74
1.09
2.11
.69
Only want votes
.52
.44*
.82
1.17
1.31
10.34***
17.08*
Left-Right-Scale
1.67***
.76***
1.28***
.66***
.42***
1.64***
1.25
Male
.59**
1.27
1.35
1.48
.97
High Education
.64*
.67*
1.20
1.63*
1.19
.44
Age
.99
1.02**
1.00
.96*
East
.50*
.57
2.49**
2.05*
Pseudo R2
24,2
8,1
5,0
13,0
31,3
42,8
Note: Reported are Odds Ratios, N=820

7. 2. Preliminary Results: Online-Tracking
Logitistic Regression Results – Populism Index:
CDU/
CSU
SPD
Liberal
Green
Left
AfD
Non-Voter
Populism index
.30***
1.25
.74*
.69*
1.72**
5.78***
2.02*
Left-Right-Scale
1.52***
.77***
1.27***
.66***
.42***
1.68***
Male
.55**
1.29
1.34
.67
1.53
.98
1.13
High Education
.79
.69
1.66*
1.14
1.01
.44
Age
.99
1.02**
1.00
.97
East
.89
.52*
.96
.57
2.48***
2.40**
.51
Pseudo R2
17,3
7,1
4,7
12,5
30,5
34,9
10,5
Note: Reported are Odds Ratios, N=820

8. 2. Preliminary Results: Online-Tracking
Visualization – Anger Merkel
CDU/CSU

9. 2. Preliminary Results: Online-Tracking
Left party Right party

10. 2. Preliminary Results: Online-Tracking
Visualization – Populism scale
CDU/CSU

11. 2. Preliminary Results: Online-Tracking
Left party Right party

12. 3. Role of the Media –Sources of Populism
Left-Right-Scale
.01
Male
.11***
High Education
-.21***
Age
.00
East
.05
Most important source of political information1:
Newspaper
-.10
Radio
-.04
Internet
.24***
Personal talk
.08
Other source
.61***
Index media consumption frequency2
-.00
Index media consumption diversity3
-.06**
Single Media Sources4:
Public TV news (“Tagesschau”)
-.14*
Private TV news (“RTL”)
.28***
Private TV news (“SAT 1”)
.15+
Twitter
-.22+ N
885
Adj. R2
12,0
Note: 1Most important source: omitted: TV; 2 Intensity of media consumption; 3 range of different types of media consumed; 4 only significant effects out of 22 possible media sources

13. 4. Very Preliminary Results: Cross-section pre-election
Operationalization:
Populisms-Items (CSES)
A. What they call compromise in politics, is in reality only a betrayal of principles.
(Was in der Politik Kompromiss genannt wird, ist in Wirklichkeit nur ein Verrat von Prinzipien.)
B. The people and not the politicians should make the most important decisions.
(Das Volk, und nicht die Politiker, sollte die wichtigsten politischen Entscheidungen treffen.)
C. The members of the German parliament must obey the will of the people.
(Die Abgeordneten des Deutschen Bundestags müssen dem Willen des Volkes Folge leisten.)
D. The political differences between elites and the people are bigger than within the people.
(Die politischen Unterschiede zwischen Eliten und dem Volk sind größer als die Unterschiede innerhalb des Volkes).
E. A citizen would represent my interests better than a professional politician.
(Ein Bürger würde besser meine Interessen vertreten als ein Berufspolitiker)
F. Politicians talk too much and do too little.
(Die Politiker reden zu viel und machen zu wenig.)
2. Want Only Votes
Parties are only interested in the vote, they do not care about the opinions of the voters
(Die Parteien wollen nur die Stimmen der Wähler, ihre Ansichten interessieren sie nicht.)
Media
The German media discusses important themes one-sidedly/biased.
(In Deutschland werden wichtige politische Themen in den Medien einseitig diskutiert.)
1 fully disagree, 5 fullly agree

14. 4. Very Preliminary Results: Cross-section pre-election
Operationalization:
4. Euroscepticism
A. Germany should support EU member states with large economic and financial problems.
(Deutschland sollte EU-Mitgliedsstaaten, die starke wirtschaftliche und finanzielle Schwierigkeiten haben, finanziell unterstützen.)
B. European integration should be pushed further.
(Die europäische Einigung sollte weiter vorangetrieben werden.)
1 fully disagree, 5 fullly agree (re-coded)

15. 4. Very Preliminary Results: Cross-section pre-election
Populism and Euroscepticism in the German electorate (in percent)
Fully agree
Rather /fully N
Compromise is betrayal
12,0
32,5
2037
The people should decide
17,0
36,6
2149
MPs must obey the people
39,9
72,9
2133
Diff. elites and people bigger
26,5
61,2
1927
A citizen represents better
10,3
26,9
2088
Politicians talk too much
34,0
64,3
2154
Only want votes
16,5
41,5
Media is biased
24,7
51,9
2084
gt 2,5
gt 3
Populism index (0-4)
36,0
16,1
1752
Fully disagree
EU: financial solidarity
11,5
27,6
2145
EU: more integration
5,3
13,4
2125

16. 4. Very Preliminary Results: Cross-section pre-election
Populism and Euroscepticism: German parties (mean values)
CDU/
CSU
SPD
Liberal
Green
Left
AfD
Non-Voter
Compromise is betrayal
2.8
3.0
2.7
3.3
3.7
The people should decide
2.9
3.8
MPs must obey the people
3.9
4.1
4.3
Diff. elites and people
3.6
3.5
4.0
4.2
A citizen represents better
2.6
3.4
Politicians talk too much
4.5
4.4
Only want votes
3.1
Media is biased
3.2
Populism index (0-4)
2.2
2.4
2.3
EU: financial solidarity
2.5
EU: more integration
1.9
2.0
1.7

17. 4. Very Preliminary Results: Cross-section pre-election
Logistic Regression results (Odds Ratios):
CDU/
CSU
SPD
Liberal
Green
Left
AfD
Non-Voter
Populism
.56***
1.01
.77*
.71*
1.95***
3.49***
2.79***
EU: financial solidarity
1.09
.91
1.29**
.69***
.78**
1.17
1.39**
EU: more integration
.92
.86*
.86
.84
1.06
1.69***
Pseudo R2
3,0
0,8
1,2
4,8
3,1
19,5
11,4
Pseudo R2 with single items
3,9
1,5
2,0
6,7
3,8
21,8
13,8

18. 5. Tentative conclusions
There is left- AND right-wing populism in present-day Germany
No impact of political ideology on populist attitudes
But: - far more consequential on the right
- right: populism & euroscepticism, left: only populism
- non-voters: potential reservoir for (right-wing) populist parties
Single strongest effect: hatred/fury /anger with Chancellor Merkel
If no: Vote for Christian Democrats and other „established“ parties (in particular, Liberals and Greens)
If yes: vote for populist parties, in particular right-wing
Open question
is Merkel a symbol/ a personal manifestation for all „ills“ of the „system“ (establishment, migration policy etc.)
how much would populism explain after controlling for anti-immigrant sentments?
in a post-Merkel world?

19. 5. Tentative conclusions
There is left- AND right-wing populism in present-day Germany
No impact of political ideology on populist attitudes
But: - far more consequential on the right
- right: populism & euroscepticism, left: only populism
- non-voters: potential reservoir for (right-wing) populist parties
Single strongest effect: hatred/fury /anger with Chancellor Merkel
If no: Vote for Christian Democrats and other „established“ parties (in particular, Liberals and Greens)
If yes: vote for populist parties, in particular right-wing
Open question
is Merkel a symbol/ a personal manifestation for all „ills“ of the „system“ (establishment, migration policy etc.)
how much would populism explain after controlling for anti-immigrant sentments?
in a post-Merkel world?
THANK YOU !

20. Populism - SPD

21. Populism – Liberals and Green

22. Merkel Anger - SPD

23. Merkel Anger – Liberals and Green