1. Report from the 4th Workshop on Telecommunications Technoeconomics
Market forecasts and business case modeling for 3G and wireless services in Europe
Report from the 4th Workshop on Telecommunications Technoeconomics
Dimitris VAROUTAS
University of Athens, GR
Giovanni GASBARONNE
Dimitris KATSIANIS
Evangelos KARATHANOS

2. The challenge

3. Next generation technologiesW-

4. Technoeconomic Methodologies and Tools

5. IST-TONIC Methodology

6. Marketing Forecasting Model

7. The results

8. Market Sizing: demand forecast

9. 3G financial perspectives in Europe
D. Katsianis et al,
“The financial perspective of the mobile networks in Europe”,
IEEE Personal Commun. Mag., Dec Vol 8, No 6, pp

10. NPV- IRR for L-arge and S-mall European countries

11. Α Case study in Greece

12. Current Situation 3 + 1 GSM-GPRS Operators
Almost equal market shares for the first 3 Op.
3 UMTS licensees
147Meuros for 20 years
60% in the beginning
And 4 equal installments
25% of the population up to 2003 (All Athens 2004 Olympic sites until June 2004)
50% before Dec 2006
10 years study period

13. Market Evolution population ~ 11Milion

14. Market Forecast (1)

15. Market Forecast (2) Penetration Forecast for different Systems

16. Market Forecast (3) Mobile Subscriber Penetration Forecast

17. Financial Results

18. Financial Results Investments, Revenues, Cash Balance

19. Information Sources IST-TONIC website http://www-nrc.nokia.com/tonic/
Technoeconomic Workshop website
Methodologies
G. Gasbarrone, “Beyond third generation wireless communications The European market Business Case modelling”, 4th Workshop on Telecommunications Techno-Economics, Rennes – France, May 2002
Other business cases
D. Katsianis et al, “The financial perspective of the mobile networks in Europe”, IEEE Personal Commun. Mag., Dec Vol 8, No 6, pp
Th. Monath et al, “Economics of Ethernet based access networks for broadband IP services”, ISSLS 2002, 14 –17 April, 2002, Seoul
Books
L.A. Ims, “Broadband Access Networks Introduction strategies and techno-economic evaluation, Telecommunications Technology And Applications Series, Chapman & Hall 1998, ISBN
Forecasts
K. Stordahl, L. Rand, "Long term forecasts for broadband demand", Telektronikk, 95, (2/3), 1999.