1. 1. Not new—Portland has been a consistent YCE magnet since 1980
Portland has recorded an impressive ability to attract and retain YCE migrants despite its economic growth
YCEs come here from areas ‘up’ and ‘down’ the urban hierarchy
Empty-nesters and retirees are moving and staying here too
Immigrants are an (increasing) important part of the talent story

2. 1. Not new—Portland has been a consistent YCE magnet since 1980
Portland has recorded an impressive ability to attract and retain YCE migrants despite its economic growth
YCEs come here from areas ‘up’ and ‘down’ the urban hierarchy
Empty-nesters and retirees are moving and staying here too
Immigrants are an (increasing) important part of the talent story

3. What are the true dimensions of this problem?
Historical trends
The Geographic variances of mayoral turnout, within individual communities
The Generational variations, between residents of different ages
How do other key Demographic and Socioeconomic patterns correlate with turnout?
1. Not new—Portland has been a consistent YCE magnet since 1980
Portland has recorded an impressive ability to attract and retain YCE migrants despite its economic growth
YCEs come here from areas ‘up’ and ‘down’ the urban hierarchy
Empty-nesters and retirees are moving and staying here too
Immigrants are an (increasing) important part of the talent story

4. Voter Turnout today – for all types of elections – is significantly lower than in previous eras
Even in the 2016 presidential race, almost 40% of eligible citizens didn’t cast a ballot
1. Not new—Portland has been a consistent YCE magnet since 1980
Portland has recorded an impressive ability to attract and retain YCE migrants despite its economic growth
YCEs come here from areas ‘up’ and ‘down’ the urban hierarchy
Empty-nesters and retirees are moving and staying here too
Immigrants are an (increasing) important part of the talent story

5. Voter Turnout today – for all types of elections – is significantly lower than in previous eras
For the 2014 midterm elections -- which elected 39 of 50 Governors, all 435 U.S. Representatives, and more than 6,000 of the nation’s 7,382 state legislative seats – 64% of eligible citizens didn’t vote.
1. Not new—Portland has been a consistent YCE magnet since 1980
Portland has recorded an impressive ability to attract and retain YCE migrants despite its economic growth
YCEs come here from areas ‘up’ and ‘down’ the urban hierarchy
Empty-nesters and retirees are moving and staying here too
Immigrants are an (increasing) important part of the talent story

6. Voter Turnout today – for all types of elections – is significantly lower than in previous eras
Typical mayoral election turnout is about 20% of eligible voters –slightly higher than 2014’s party primary election turnout across 50 states of about 15%.
1. Not new—Portland has been a consistent YCE magnet since 1980
Portland has recorded an impressive ability to attract and retain YCE migrants despite its economic growth
YCEs come here from areas ‘up’ and ‘down’ the urban hierarchy
Empty-nesters and retirees are moving and staying here too
Immigrants are an (increasing) important part of the talent story

7. 81%
57%
36%
1. Not new—Portland has been a consistent YCE magnet since 1980
Portland has recorded an impressive ability to attract and retain YCE migrants despite its economic growth
YCEs come here from areas ‘up’ and ‘down’ the urban hierarchy
Empty-nesters and retirees are moving and staying here too
Immigrants are an (increasing) important part of the talent story
15%

8. Source: Larry Sabato, University of Virginia
1. Not new—Portland has been a consistent YCE magnet since 1980
Portland has recorded an impressive ability to attract and retain YCE migrants despite its economic growth
YCEs come here from areas ‘up’ and ‘down’ the urban hierarchy
Empty-nesters and retirees are moving and staying here too
Immigrants are an (increasing) important part of the talent story
Source: Larry Sabato, University of Virginia

9. For Mayoral Elections far less is known
1. Not new—Portland has been a consistent YCE magnet since 1980
Portland has recorded an impressive ability to attract and retain YCE migrants despite its economic growth
YCEs come here from areas ‘up’ and ‘down’ the urban hierarchy
Empty-nesters and retirees are moving and staying here too
Immigrants are an (increasing) important part of the talent story

10. 1. Not new—Portland has been a consistent YCE magnet since 1980
Portland has recorded an impressive ability to attract and retain YCE migrants despite its economic growth
YCEs come here from areas ‘up’ and ‘down’ the urban hierarchy
Empty-nesters and retirees are moving and staying here too
Immigrants are an (increasing) important part of the talent story

11. -- Based on 144 U.S. Cities
1. Not new—Portland has been a consistent YCE magnet since 1980
Portland has recorded an impressive ability to attract and retain YCE migrants despite its economic growth
YCEs come here from areas ‘up’ and ‘down’ the urban hierarchy
Empty-nesters and retirees are moving and staying here too
Immigrants are an (increasing) important part of the talent story

12. Data and Methods for Who Votes for Mayor
Geography
30 largest U.S. cities along with 20 Knight cities
Census tract-level analysis
Elections
mayoral voting cycles
Data Sources
U.S. Census Bureau Citizen Voting Age Population (CVAP)
Census 2010
American Community Survey (ACS)
Geocoded 22,000,000 individual voting records
1. Not new—Portland has been a consistent YCE magnet since 1980
Portland has recorded an impressive ability to attract and retain YCE migrants despite its economic growth
YCEs come here from areas ‘up’ and ‘down’ the urban hierarchy
Empty-nesters and retirees are moving and staying here too
Immigrants are an (increasing) important part of the talent story

13. Research Questions
To what extent are voters who cast ballots in municipal elections roughly representative—or not—of a city’s overall population?
1. Not new—Portland has been a consistent YCE magnet since 1980
Portland has recorded an impressive ability to attract and retain YCE migrants despite its economic growth
YCEs come here from areas ‘up’ and ‘down’ the urban hierarchy
Empty-nesters and retirees are moving and staying here too
Immigrants are an (increasing) important part of the talent story

14. Research Questions
Which demographic groups are over or underrepresented at the ballot box, and by how much? Put another way, which demographic groups—and to what degree—play an inordinately large (or small) role in choosing who governs a city?
1. Not new—Portland has been a consistent YCE magnet since 1980
Portland has recorded an impressive ability to attract and retain YCE migrants despite its economic growth
YCEs come here from areas ‘up’ and ‘down’ the urban hierarchy
Empty-nesters and retirees are moving and staying here too
Immigrants are an (increasing) important part of the talent story

15. Key Findings: Overall Voter Turnout
1. Not new—Portland has been a consistent YCE magnet since 1980
Portland has recorded an impressive ability to attract and retain YCE migrants despite its economic growth
YCEs come here from areas ‘up’ and ‘down’ the urban hierarchy
Empty-nesters and retirees are moving and staying here too
Immigrants are an (increasing) important part of the talent story

16. Key Findings: Overall Voter Turnout
1. Not new—Portland has been a consistent YCE magnet since 1980
Portland has recorded an impressive ability to attract and retain YCE migrants despite its economic growth
YCEs come here from areas ‘up’ and ‘down’ the urban hierarchy
Empty-nesters and retirees are moving and staying here too
Immigrants are an (increasing) important part of the talent story

17. Key Findings: Age
The Median Age of Eligible Voters in the 30 Largest US cities: 42.
The Median Age of Those Casting
Ballots: 57
Generational Clout: the Median “Odds Ratio” that a 65+ resident would cast a ballot compared to the probability an year old would : 15:1
1. Not new—Portland has been a consistent YCE magnet since 1980
Portland has recorded an impressive ability to attract and retain YCE migrants despite its economic growth
YCEs come here from areas ‘up’ and ‘down’ the urban hierarchy
Empty-nesters and retirees are moving and staying here too
Immigrants are an (increasing) important part of the talent story

18. Median Age of Ballot Casters
1. Not new—Portland has been a consistent YCE magnet since 1980
Portland has recorded an impressive ability to attract and retain YCE migrants despite its economic growth
YCEs come here from areas ‘up’ and ‘down’ the urban hierarchy
Empty-nesters and retirees are moving and staying here too
Immigrants are an (increasing) important part of the talent story

19. Las Vegas, NV
1. Not new—Portland has been a consistent YCE magnet since 1980
Portland has recorded an impressive ability to attract and retain YCE migrants despite its economic growth
YCEs come here from areas ‘up’ and ‘down’ the urban hierarchy
Empty-nesters and retirees are moving and staying here too
Immigrants are an (increasing) important part of the talent story

20. Key Finding: Geography
1. Not new—Portland has been a consistent YCE magnet since 1980
Portland has recorded an impressive ability to attract and retain YCE migrants despite its economic growth
YCEs come here from areas ‘up’ and ‘down’ the urban hierarchy
Empty-nesters and retirees are moving and staying here too
Immigrants are an (increasing) important part of the talent story

21. Philadelphia, PA
1. Not new—Portland has been a consistent YCE magnet since 1980
Portland has recorded an impressive ability to attract and retain YCE migrants despite its economic growth
YCEs come here from areas ‘up’ and ‘down’ the urban hierarchy
Empty-nesters and retirees are moving and staying here too
Immigrants are an (increasing) important part of the talent story

22. 1. Not new—Portland has been a consistent YCE magnet since 1980
Portland has recorded an impressive ability to attract and retain YCE migrants despite its economic growth
YCEs come here from areas ‘up’ and ‘down’ the urban hierarchy
Empty-nesters and retirees are moving and staying here too
Immigrants are an (increasing) important part of the talent story

23. Let’s Take a Closer Look at two cities
Charlotte North Carolina - 2nd Round, Nov (Geography and Age)
Baltimore Maryland - D primary, Nov 2011 (Minority and Age)
1. Not new—Portland has been a consistent YCE magnet since 1980
Portland has recorded an impressive ability to attract and retain YCE migrants despite its economic growth
YCEs come here from areas ‘up’ and ‘down’ the urban hierarchy
Empty-nesters and retirees are moving and staying here too
Immigrants are an (increasing) important part of the talent story

24. Potential Policy Approaches to Low Turnout
Sync Election dates with regular primary and general elections
Nearly ¾ of cities in our sample hold elections in odd numbered years; only Portland, OR’s occurred in Nov 2012
Baltimore (2016) and Los Angeles (2020) have recently moved their elections to boost turnout
1. Not new—Portland has been a consistent YCE magnet since 1980
Portland has recorded an impressive ability to attract and retain YCE migrants despite its economic growth
YCEs come here from areas ‘up’ and ‘down’ the urban hierarchy
Empty-nesters and retirees are moving and staying here too
Immigrants are an (increasing) important part of the talent story
Aside from the impact on turnout, are there other reasons to sync elections?
What’s the drawback to syncing elections?
Why aren’t elections synced now?

25. Potential Policy Approaches to Low Turnout
Ranked Choice Voting aka “Instant Run-Off to condense elections to a single round (e.g, November)
San Francisco, Oakland, Minneapolis, St Paul
St Paul turnout rose from 20% of registered in 2013 to 39% of RVs in 2017 – the single biggest jump in our group
1. Not new—Portland has been a consistent YCE magnet since 1980
Portland has recorded an impressive ability to attract and retain YCE migrants despite its economic growth
YCEs come here from areas ‘up’ and ‘down’ the urban hierarchy
Empty-nesters and retirees are moving and staying here too
Immigrants are an (increasing) important part of the talent story
Aside from the impact on turnout, are there other reasons to sync elections?
What’s the drawback to syncing elections?
Why aren’t elections synced now?

26. Potential Policy Approaches to Low Turnout
Vote at Home elections by which every registered voter receives a mailed-out ballot 2 weeks before each election, and can return it via mail or by taking it to one of many official drop-sites.
Seattle’s Nov 2017 mayor’s race was 48% of registered
1. Not new—Portland has been a consistent YCE magnet since 1980
Portland has recorded an impressive ability to attract and retain YCE migrants despite its economic growth
YCEs come here from areas ‘up’ and ‘down’ the urban hierarchy
Empty-nesters and retirees are moving and staying here too
Immigrants are an (increasing) important part of the talent story
Aside from the impact on turnout, are there other reasons to sync elections?
What’s the drawback to syncing elections?
Why aren’t elections synced now?

27. Areas for Future Research and Collaboration ”Deeper Dives” into the existing data set – which is downloadable -- to analyze correlations of Voting patterns with various demographic and socioeconomic factorS
1. Not new—Portland has been a consistent YCE magnet since 1980
Portland has recorded an impressive ability to attract and retain YCE migrants despite its economic growth
YCEs come here from areas ‘up’ and ‘down’ the urban hierarchy
Empty-nesters and retirees are moving and staying here too
Immigrants are an (increasing) important part of the talent story
Aside from the impact on turnout, are there other reasons to sync elections?
What’s the drawback to syncing elections?
Why aren’t elections synced now?

28. Areas for Future Research and Collaboration ”Longitudinal research to track changes between mayoral elections, though this would require the acquisition and geocoding of more recent data
1. Not new—Portland has been a consistent YCE magnet since 1980
Portland has recorded an impressive ability to attract and retain YCE migrants despite its economic growth
YCEs come here from areas ‘up’ and ‘down’ the urban hierarchy
Empty-nesters and retirees are moving and staying here too
Immigrants are an (increasing) important part of the talent story
Aside from the impact on turnout, are there other reasons to sync elections?
What’s the drawback to syncing elections?
Why aren’t elections synced now?

29. Areas for Future Research and Collaboration Adding city voting data from other elections – e.g. presidential, midterm, party primaries
1. Not new—Portland has been a consistent YCE magnet since 1980
Portland has recorded an impressive ability to attract and retain YCE migrants despite its economic growth
YCEs come here from areas ‘up’ and ‘down’ the urban hierarchy
Empty-nesters and retirees are moving and staying here too
Immigrants are an (increasing) important part of the talent story
Aside from the impact on turnout, are there other reasons to sync elections?
What’s the drawback to syncing elections?
Why aren’t elections synced now?

30. Areas for Future Research and Collaboration Establishing a publically accessible repository of key “point in time” voting files to facilitate research
1. Not new—Portland has been a consistent YCE magnet since 1980
Portland has recorded an impressive ability to attract and retain YCE migrants despite its economic growth
YCEs come here from areas ‘up’ and ‘down’ the urban hierarchy
Empty-nesters and retirees are moving and staying here too
Immigrants are an (increasing) important part of the talent story
Aside from the impact on turnout, are there other reasons to sync elections?
What’s the drawback to syncing elections?
Why aren’t elections synced now?

31. Thank you! keisling@pdx.edu 503-725-8168
1. Not new—Portland has been a consistent YCE magnet since 1980
Portland has recorded an impressive ability to attract and retain YCE migrants despite its economic growth
YCEs come here from areas ‘up’ and ‘down’ the urban hierarchy
Empty-nesters and retirees are moving and staying here too
Immigrants are an (increasing) important part of the talent story